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Abstract
An analysis of the evolution of the centre-right and centre-left coalitions from 1994 until today reveals that, notwithstanding the differences in culture and political traditions, they have both reproduced the model ‘invented’ by Berlusconi in 1994, founded on wide and heterogeneous alliances, personalisation and marketing. Put together to win elections, the coalitions are inadequate to govern, because they are strained by tensions between parties and by profound differences in their parties' electoral bases. The principal factor of unity for the centre-right is the figure of the leader, Silvio Berlusconi, while on the centre-left Romano Prodi aims to construct a single political party. From here derive the divisions: on the centre-right, between the President and the parties; on the centre-left, between the Party and the parties.
Acknowledgements
Fabio Bordignon was responsible for most of the statistical analyses and maps, and together with Luigi Ceccarini and Natascia Porcellato, he also read and annotated this and earlier versions, allowing me to modify it (for the better, I hope). I am very grateful to them. Some of the data and material presented here has been gathered and analysed for research at the Università degli Studi di Urbino ‘Carlo Bo’, co-financed by Miur-Prin 2005, Record 2005148547_002.
Notes
1. On the main features of the vote of 9–10 April 2006, see Itanes (Citation2006), Mannheimer and Natale (Citation2006) and Corbetta and Vassallo (Citation2006). See Pasquino (Citation2007) for a detailed and critical survey of the proposals for electoral and constitutional reform.
2. On Italian electoral systems after 1993, see Pasquino (Citation2007). The 1993 electoral law entered into common parlance as the ‘Mattarellum’, Giovanni Sartori's ironic definition (1995; 2006) that echoes the name of the president of the parliamentarian commission who designed it, Sergio Mattarella.
3. On the Northern League, see Diamanti (Citation1993) and Biorcio (Citation1997). On AN, Ignazi (Citation1989 and 2002), Bardi and Ignazi (Citation2003) and Tarchi (Citation1997). On FI, see Poli (Citation2001), Paolucci (Citation2001), Golia (Citation1997), Fava (Citation2005), Lazar (Citation2006) and Campus (Citation2006).
4. Of the numerous publications on the ‘First’ Republic note among others Galli (Citation1966) and Sartori (Citation1967) on Italian bipolarism; and Pizzorno (Citation1993), Bardi and Morlino (Citation1994), Caciagli et al. (Citation1994), Parisi and Schadee (Citation1995), Bull (Citation1996), Gundle and Parker (Citation1996), Bull and Rhodes (Citation1997) and Mastropaolo (Citation2000) on the Italian crisis that leads to the turning point of the 1990s.
5. On the importance that television has acquired in Italian politics and, in particular, the experience of FI, see Grossi (Citation2004) and Mazzoleni (Citation2004), Sartori (Citation2000) and Diamanti (Citation2003).
6. On the territorial strongholds of the left, in particular of the parties with communist backgrounds, we suggest the methodical essay by Ramella (Citation2005). See also Trigilia (Citation1986), Messina (Citation2001) and Anderlini (Citation2006). On the changes in the leftist parties in Italy, see Bosco (Citation2000), Baccetti (Citation1997), Bellucci et al. (Citation2000). For an internal reevaluation, see the contribution by Ariemma (Citation2000), who was an official of the PCI and later of the PDS and DS.
7. Amongst the research on the behaviours and values of voters conducted in recent years, we have ‘worked’ directly on the database of national research created through the project Itanes and through the project coordinated by LaPolis (Università di Urbino) on ‘Territory and Politics in Italy’ (research and surveys conducted between 2004 and 2006). Some analyses of the findings have been published in Itanes (Citation2001; Citation2006), Diamanti (Citation2003) and Bordignon and Ceccarini (Citation2005).
8. An interpretation of Italy's political history following the fall of the First Republic as an alternation of conflicting cycles between presidents and parties is proposed by Calise (Citation2006).
9. On the results of, and discussions surrounding, the surveys conducted during the 2006 electoral campaign, see Sani (Citation2006b), Mannheimer (Citation2006) and Pagnoncelli and Vannucci (Citation2006).
10. See Pagnoncelli (Citation2006) on the methodological aspects of the surveys commissioned by Silvio Berlusconi and their impact on public opinion.
11. The comparison between Prodi's agenda and that of Berlusconi is summarised by Bellucci and Memoli (Citation2006: 209–21) as the alternative between the ‘failures of the government and fear of taxes’.
12. In a survey conducted by LaPolis on a national sample (1,200 subjects; interviews conducted between 15 and 21 June 2006) a long list of ‘words’ evoking the main topics of political debate (the Church, the USA, federalism, communism, etc.) was used to produce a ‘reaction’ in those interviewed (who indicated their positive/negative feelings on a scale from 1 to 10). The one that provoked by far the greatest ‘divide’ between the voters of the centre-right and centre-left was ‘Berlusconi’, the true source of an electoral cleavage in Italy over the last 12 years. The research on ‘Political actors and voting choice among geography, organisation and communication, the 2006 Italian General Election in the red, green and blue geo-political areas’ was conducted by the Università degli Studi di Urbino ‘Carlo Bo’ and co-financed by Miur-Prin 2005, Record 2005148547_002.
13. The correlations were calculated on the basis of the percentage data by province, considering all the Italian provinces for which the comparison between the 2001 and 1996 elections was possible. The coefficient of correlation (Pearson's r) fluctuates between −1 and 1. The extreme values indicate that the variables considered are connected by a perfect linear relationship, of a positive (+1) or negative (−1) type. The central value (0) indicates the independence of correlation.
14. The literature on the political history of Italy after 1992 has long used the concept of ‘transition’ together with ‘Second Republic’ as equivalents. Recently, though, the tendency to distinguish them has grown. ‘Transition’ is used to emphasise the still incomplete nature of the current political and institutional system, while those who speak of the ‘Second’ or sometimes ‘Third’ Republic consider it complete, and a structured though unstable system (e.g. Calise Citation2006).
15. Pagnoncelli and Vannucci (Citation2006) also argue that ‘the political direction of the voters is the child of the long term rather than the short term’. This does not mean that the importance of the ‘new’ variables should be underrated (cf. Corbetta Citation2006: 415–30). Verzichelli (Citation2006: 455–78) underlines how a certain continuity in the political class is emerging.