Economic development and democracy: An electoral connection
Corresponding Author
CARL HENRIK KNUTSEN
University of Oslo, Norway
Address for correspondence: Carl Henrik Knutsen, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo, Norway. Email: [email protected].Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
CARL HENRIK KNUTSEN
University of Oslo, Norway
Address for correspondence: Carl Henrik Knutsen, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo, Norway. Email: [email protected].Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Scholars continue to debate whether economic development affects regime type. This article argues that a clear relationship exists between development and the electoral component of democracy, but not – or at least less so – between development and other components of broader understandings of democracy. This is so because development enhances the power resources of citizens and elections provide a focal point for collective action. The theory is tested with two new datasets – Varieties of Democracy and Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy – that allow us to disaggregate the concept of democracy into meso- and micro-level indicators. Results of these tests corroborate the theory: only election-centred indicators are robustly associated with economic development. This may help to account for apparent inconsistencies across extant studies and shed light on the mechanisms at work in a much-studied relationship. Further analysis shows that development affects electoral democracy by reducing electoral fraud, election violence and vote buying.
Supporting Information
Filename | Description |
---|---|
ejpr12282-sup-0001-Appendix.pdf1.1 MB |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
References
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J.A. & Yared, P. (2008). Income and democracy. American Economic Review 98(3): 808–842.
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J.A. & Yared, P. (2009). Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis. Journal of Monetary Economics 56(8): 1043–1058.
- Aidt, T.S. & Jensen, P.S. (2017). From open to secret ballot: Vote buying and modernization. Comparative Polticial Studies 50(5): 555–593.
- Alexander, M., Harding, M. & Lamarche, C. (2011). Quantile regression for time-series-cross-section data. International Journal of Statistics and Management System 6(1–2): 47–72.
- Ansell, B. & Samuels, D. (2014). Inequality and democratization. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511843686 Google Scholar
- Beaulieu, E. (2014). Electoral protest and democracy in the developing world. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9781139626316 Google Scholar
- Benhabib, J., Corvalan, A. & Spiegel, M.M. (2011). Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus. Working Paper 2011-09. San Francisco, CA: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
10.3386/w16832 Google Scholar
- Birch, S. (2011). Electoral malpractice. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199606160.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87(1): 115–143.
- Boix, C. (2003). Democracy and redistribution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511804960 Google Scholar
- Boix, C. (2011). Democracy, development and the international system. American Political Science Review 105(4): 809–828.
- Boix, C. & Stokes, S.C. (2003). Endogenous democratization. World Politics 55(4): 517–549.
- Boix, C., Miller, M.K. & Rosato, S. (2013). A complete data set of political regimes, 1800–2007. Comparative Political Studies 46(12): 1523–1554.
- Bolt, J. & Van Zanden, J.L. (2014). The Maddison Project: Collaborative research on historical national accounts. Economic History Review 67(3): 627–651.
- Brinks, D & Coppedge, M. (2006). Diffusion is no illusion: Neighbor emulation in the third wave of democracy. Comparative Political Studies 39(4): 463–489.
- Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R.M. & Morrow, J.D. (2003). The logic of political survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
- Bunce, V. & Wolchik, S. (2011). Defeating authoritarian leaders in postcommunist countries. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511977404 Google Scholar
- Cervellati, M., Fortunato, P. & Sunde, U. (2006). Growth and endogeneous political institutions. In T.S. Eicher & C. Garcia-Peñalosa (eds), Institutions, development and economic growth. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
- Che, Y., Lub, Y., Tao, Z. & Wang, P. (2013). The impact of income on democracy revisited. Journal of Comparative Economics 41(1): 159–169.
- Cheibub, J.A., Gandhi, J. & Vreeland, J.R. (2010). Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice 143(1–2): 67–101.
- Chong, D. (1991). Collective action and the civil rights movement. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
10.7208/chicago/9780226228693.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Chu, Y.H., Bratton, M., Lagos, M., Shastri, S. & Tessler, M. (2008). Public opinion and democratic legitimacy. Journal of Democracy 19(2): 74–87.
- Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Lindberg, S.I., Skaaning, S.E., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Bernhard, M., Fish, S., Glynn, A., Hicken, A., Knutsen, C.H., Krusell, J., Lührmann, A., Marquardt, K.L., McMann, K., Mechkova, V., Olin, M., Paxton, P., Pemstein, D., Pernes, J., Petrarca, C.S., von Römer, J., Saxer, L., Seim, B., Sigman, R., Staton, J., Stepanova, N. & Wilson, S. (2017a). V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] dataset v7.1. Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute.
- Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Lindberg, S.I., Skaaning, S.E., Teorell, J., Krusell, J., Marquardt, K.L., Mechkova, V., Pemstein, D., Pernes, J., Saxer, L., Stepanova, N., Tzelgov, E., Wang, Y. & Wilson, S. (2017b). V-Dem methodology v7.1. Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute.
10.2139/ssrn.2968284 Google Scholar
- Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Lindberg, S.I., Skaaning, S.E. & Teorell, J. (2017c). V-Dem comparisons and contrasts with other measurement projects. V-Dem Working Paper 45. Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute.
10.2139/ssrn.2951014 Google Scholar
- Diamond, L. & Morlino, L. (2004). Quality of democracy: An overview. Journal of Democracy 15(4): 20–31.
- Epstein, D.L., Bates, R., Goldstone, J., Kristensen, I. & O'Halloran, S. (2006). Democratic transitions. American Journal of Political Science 50(3): 551–569.
- Faria, H., Montesinos-Yufa, H. & Morales, D. (2014). Should the modernization hypothesis survive Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson and Yared? Some more evidence. Econ Journal Watch 11(1): 17–36.
- Fearon, J. (2011). Self-enforcing democracy. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(4): 1661–1708.
- Freedom House (2014). Freedom in the world survey. Available online at: http://www.freedomhouse.org
- Gassebner, M., Lamla, M.J. & Vreeland, J.R. (2011). Extreme bounds of democracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57(2): 171–195.
- Glaeser, E.L., Ponzetto, G. & Shleifer, A. (2007). Why does democracy need education? Journal of Economic Growth 12(2): 77–99.
- Gundlach, E. & Paldam, M. (2009). A farewell to critical junctures: Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy. Europan Journal Political Economy 25(3): 340–354.
- Heid, B., Langer, J. & Larch, M. (2012). Income and democracy: Evidence from system GMM estimates. Economics Letters 116: 166–169.
- Held, D. (2006). Models of democracy. Cambridge: Polity Press.
- Honaker, J. & King, G. (2010). What to do about missing values in time-series cross-section data. American Journal of Political Science 54(2): 561–581.
- Inglehart, R. (2003). How solid is mass support for democracy – and how do we measure it? Political Science and Politics 36(1): 51–57.
- Inglehart, R. & Welzel, C. (2005). Modernization, cultural change and democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Jensen, P. & Justesen, M. (2014). Poverty and vote buying: Survey-based evidence from Africa. Electoral Studies 33(1): 220–232.
- Kennedy, R. (2010). The contradiction of modernization: A conditional model of endogenous democratization. Journal of Politics 72(3): 785–798.
- Knutsen, C.H. (2012). Democracy and economic growth: A survey of arguments and results. International Area Studies Review 15(4): 393–415.
10.1177/2233865912455268 Google Scholar
- Kuran, T. (1989). Sparks and prairie fires. Public Choice 61(1): 41–74.
- Lehoucq, F. (2003). Electoral fraud: Causes, types and consequences. Annual Review of Political Science 6: 233–256
- Lipset, S.M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review 53(1): 69–105.
- Lohman, S. (1994). The dynamics of informal cascades. World Politics 47(1): 42–101.
- Marshall, M., Gurr, T. & Jaggers, K. (2014). Polity IV project: Dataset users’ manual. Available online at: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2013.pdf
- Medina, L.F. (2007). A unified theory of collective action and social change. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
10.3998/mpub.168625 Google Scholar
- Miller, M.K. (2015). Democratic pieces: Autocratic elections and democratic development since 1815. British Journal of Political Science 45(3): 501–530.
- Moore, B. (1966). Social origins of dictatorship and democracy. Boston, MA: Beacon Press.
- Moral-Benito, E. & Bartolucci, C. (2012). Income and democracy: Revisiting the evidence. Working Paper 1115. Madrid: Banco de Espana.
- Munck, G.L. (2016). What is democracy? A reconceptualization of the quality of democracy. Democratization 23(1): 1–26.
- Nickell, S. (1982). The determinants of occupational success in Britain. Review of Economic Studies 49(1): 43–53.
- Norris, P. (2011). Democratic deficit. New York: University of Cambridge Press.
- O'Donnell, G. (1973). Modernization and bureaucratic-authoritarianism: Studies in South American politics. Berkeley, CA: Institute of International Studies.
- Pemstein, D., Meserve, S.A. & Melton, J. (2010). Democratic compromise: A latent variable analysis of ten measures of regime type. Political Analysis 18(4): 426–449.
- Pemstein, D., Marquardt, K.L., Tzelgov, E., Wang, Y., Krusell, J. & Miri, F. (2017). The V-Dem measurement model: Latent variable analysis for cross-national and cross-temporal expert-coded data. Working Paper 21, 2nd edn. Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute.
- Persson, T. & Tabellini, G. (2003). The economic effects of constitutions. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
10.7551/mitpress/2591.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Persson, T. & Tabellini, G. (2009). Democratic capital: The nexus of political and economic. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1(2): 88–126.
- Przeworski, A. & Limongi, F. (1997). Modernization: Theories and facts. World Politics 49(1): 155–183.
- Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M.E., Cheibub, J.A. & Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and development: Political institutions and material well-being in the world, 1950–1990. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511804946 Google Scholar
- Reuveny, R. & Li, Q. (2003). The joint democracy-dyadic conflict nexus. International Studies Quarterly 47(3): 325–346.
- Roodman, D. (2009). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 71(1): 135–158.
- Rowley, C, Tollison, R.D. & Tullock, G. (1988). The political economy of rent-seeking. London: Springer.
10.1007/978-1-4757-1963-5 Google Scholar
- Rueschemeyer, D., Stephens, E.H. & Stephens, J.D. (1992). Capitalist development and democracy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
- Schedler, A. (2002). The menu of manipulation. Journal of Democracy 13(2): 36–50.
- Skaaning, S.E., Gerring, J. & Bartusevičius, H. (2015). A lexical index of electoral democracy. Comparative Political Studies 48(12): 1491–1525.
- Stokes, S.C., Dunning, T., Nazareno, M. & Brusco, V. (2013). Brokers, voters and clientelism: The puzzle of distributive politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9781107324909 Google Scholar
- Teorell, J. (2010). Determinants of democratization: Explaining regime change in the world, 1972–2006. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Treisman, D. (2015). Income, democracy and leader turnover. American Journal of Political Science 59(4): 927–942.
- Tucker, J.A. (2007). Enough! Electoral fraud, collective action problems and post-communist colored revolutions. Perspectives on Politics 5(3): 535–551.
10.1017/S1537592707071538 Google Scholar
- Van Ham, C. & Lindberg, S.I. (2015). From sticks to carrots: Electoral manipulation in Africa, 1986–2012. Government and Opposition 50(2): 521–548.
- Weitz-Shapiro, R. (2013). Curbing clientelism in Argentina: Politics, poverty and social policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.