The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change
Abstract
Recent measurements demonstrate that the “background” stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about –0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about –0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.
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Science
Volume 333 | Issue 6044
12 August 2011
12 August 2011
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Copyright © 2011, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Submission history
Received: 24 March 2011
Accepted: 29 June 2011
Published in print: 12 August 2011
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments: The satellite aerosol observations were analyzed by J.P.V. during his fellowship through the NASA Postdoctoral Program at Langley Research Center, administrated by Oak Ridge Associated Universities. It is also a part of his Ph.D. thesis financed by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique at LATMOS/Université de Versailles St Quentin. The CALIPSO data were made available at the ICARE data center (www-icare.univ-lille1.fr/). The authors also acknowledge help from A. Hauchecorne, J. P. Pommereau, J. Pelon, and A. Garnier in the analysis of the GOMOS and CALIPSO data sets; J. Barnes for Mauna Loa lidar data; and C. Wehrli for Precision Filter Radiometer data. Funding has also been provided by the Atmospheric Composition and Climate Program of NOAA’s Climate Program. Helpful discussions with J. Gregory and D. M. Murphy are gratefully acknowledged.
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