Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Crossing the boundaries in global sustainability
Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
RATIONALE
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS
Abstract
The basic framework: Defining a safe operating space
The planetary boundary framework: Thresholds, feedbacks, resilience, uncertainties
Linking global and regional scales
Updates of the individual boundaries
Earth-systemprocess | Controlvariable(s) | Planetary boundary(zone of uncertainty) | Current value ofcontrol variable |
---|---|---|---|
Climatechange(R2009:same) | Atmospheric CO2concentration, ppmEnergy imbalanceat top-of-atmosphere, W m-2 | 350 ppm CO2 (350-450 ppm)+1.0 W m-2 (+1.0-1.5 W m-2) | 398.5 ppm CO22.3 W m-2(1.1-3.3 W m-2) |
Change inbiosphereintegrity(R2009:Rate ofbiodiversityloss) | Genetic diversity:Extinction rateFunctional diversity:BiodiversityIntactness Index (BII)Note: These areinterim controlvariables until moreappropriate ones aredeveloped | < 10 E/MSY (10-100 E/MSY)but with an aspirational goal ofca. 1 E/MSY (the backgroundrate of extinction loss). E/MSY =extinctions per million species-yearsMaintain BII at 90% (90-30%)or above, assessedgeographically by biomes/largeregional areas (e.g. southernAfrica), major marineecosystems (e.g., coral reefs) orby large functional groups | 100-1000 E/MSY84%, applied tosouthern Africaonly |
Stratosphericozonedepletion(R2009: same) | Stratospheric O3concentration, DU | <5% reduction from pre-industrial level of 290 DU(5%–10%), assessed bylatitude | Only transgressedover Antarctica inAustral spring(~200 DU) |
Oceanacidification(R2009:same) | Carbonate ionconcentration,average globalsurface oceansaturation state withrespect to aragonite(Ωarag) | ≥80% of the pre-industrialaragonite saturation state ofmean surface ocean, includingnatural diel and seasonalvariability (≥80%– ≥70%) | ~84% of thepre-industrialaragonitesaturation state |
Biogeochemicalflows: (P andN cycles)(R2009:Biogeochemicalflows: (interferencewith P and Ncycles)) | P Global: P flowfrom freshwatersystems into theoceanP Regional: P flowfrom fertilizers toerodible soilsN Global: Industrialand intentionalbiological fixationof N | 11 Tg P yr-1 (11-100 Tg P yr-1)6.2 Tg yr-1 mined and applied toerodible (agricultural) soils(6.2-11.2 Tg yr-1). Boundary is aglobal average but regionaldistribution is critical forimpacts.62 Tg N yr-1 (62-82 Tg N yr-1).Boundary acts as a global‘valve’ limiting introduction ofnew reactive N to Earth System,but regional distribution offertilizer N is critical forimpacts. | ~22 Tg P yr-1~14 Tg P yr-1~150 Tg N yr-1 |
Land-systemchange(R2009:same) | Global: Area offorested land as %of original forestcoverBiome: Area offorested land as %of potential forest | Global: 75% (75-54%) Valuesare a weighted average of thethree individual biomeboundaries and their uncertaintyzonesBiome:Tropical: 85% (85-60%)Temperate: 50% (50-30%)Boreal: 85% (85-60%) | 62% |
Freshwateruse(R2009:Globalfreshwateruse) | Global: Maximumamount ofconsumptive bluewater use (km3yr-1)Basin: Blue waterwithdrawal as % ofmean monthly riverflow | Global: 4000 km3 yr-1(4000-6000 km3 yr-1)Basin: Maximum monthlywithdrawal as a percentageof mean monthly river flow.For low-flow months: 25%(25-55%); for intermediate-flow months: 30% (30-60%);for high-flow months: 55%(55-85%) | ~2600 km3 yr-1 |
Atmosphericaerosolloading(R2009:same) | Global: AerosolOptical Depth(AOD), but muchregional variation | ||
Regional: AOD asa seasonal averageover a region. SouthAsian Monsoonused as a case study | Regional: (South AsianMonsoon as a case study):anthropogenic total (absorbingand scattering) AOD overIndian subcontinent of 0.25(0.25-0.50); absorbing(warming) AOD less than 10%of total AOD | 0.30 AOD, overSouth Asianregion | |
Introductionof novel entities(R2009: Chemicalpollution) | No control variablecurrently defined | No boundary currentlyidentified, but see boundaryfor stratospheric ozone for anexample of a boundaryrelated to a novel entity (CFCs) |
Climate change
Changes in biosphere integrity
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Ocean acidification
Biogeochemical flows
Land-system change
Freshwater use
Atmospheric aerosol loading
Introduction of novel entities
Hierarchy of boundaries
Planetary boundaries in a societal context
Boundary interactions
Scale
Methods summary
Acknowledgments
Supplementary Material
Summary
Resources
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13 February 2015
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Scientism and utopian thought
The planetary boundaries discourse presented here explicates a train of thought I explored in a contribution to the Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. In short, Steffen et al. embrace the incoherency of scientism as a means to delineate the planetary boundaries within which life in its fullest – as science knows it – needs to keep true to the Holocene and withstand the Anthropocene. As a result, their contribution stands in a long and flawed tradition of utopian texts not equatable with science at all.