Full text loading...
Review Article
Open Access
Economic Development and Democracy: Predispositions and Triggers
- Daniel Treisman1
- Vol. 23:241-257 (Volume publication date May 2020) https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-043546
- First published as a Review in Advance on January 10, 2020
-
Copyright © 2020 by Annual Reviews.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See credit lines of images or other third party material in this article for license information.
Abstract
Scholars continue to disagree about the relationship between economic development and democracy. I review the history of the debate and summarize patterns visible in data available today. I find a strong and consistent relationship between higher income and both democratization and democratic survival in the medium term (10–20 years), but not necessarily in shorter time windows. Building on several recent studies, I sketch out a new conditional modernization theory, which can account for such lags. The key idea is that the effect of development on democracy is triggered by disruptive events such as economic crises, military defeats, or—most generally—leader change. Political outcomes depend on both the development level and, at intermediate income ranges, how citizens coordinate. Waves of leader turnover in autocracies correlate with temporarily stronger links between income and democratization, which, in turn, coincide with the first two waves of democracy.
Article metrics loading...
Literature Cited
- Acemoglu D, Gallego F, Robinson JA 2014. Institutions, human capital, and development. Annu. Rev. Econ. 6:875–912
- Acemoglu D, Johnson S, Robinson JA 2002. Reversal of fortune: geography and institutions in the making of the modern world income distribution. Q. J. Econ. 117:41231–94
- Acemoglu D, Johnson S, Robinson JA, Yared P 2008. Income and democracy. Am. Econ. Rev. 98:3808–42
- Acemoglu D, Naidu S, Restrepo P, Robinson JA 2019. Democracy does cause growth. J. Political Econ. 127:147–100
- Acemoglu D, Robinson JA. 2005. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Acemoglu D, Robinson JA. 2018. Beyond modernization theory. Ann. Comp. Democr. 16:326–31
- Ahlerup P. 2013. Democratization in the aftermath of natural disasters. Globalization and Development: Rethinking Interventions and Governance A Bigsten, pp 23–42 New York: Routledge
- Albertus M. 2015. Autocracy and Redistribution New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Ansell BW, Samuels DJ. 2014. Inequality and Democratization New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Bates RH, Lien DDH. 1985. A note on taxation, development, and representative government. Politics Soc 14:153–70
- Benhabib J, Corvalan A, Spiegel MM 2011. Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus NBER Work. Pap W16832
- Besley T, Persson T. 2011. Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Bobba M, Coviello D. 2007. Weak instruments and weak identification in estimating the effects of education on democracy. Econ. Lett. 96:3301–6
- Boix C. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Boix C. 2011. Democracy, development, and the international system. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 105:4809–28
- Boix C. 2019. Democratic Capitalism at the Crossroads: Technological Change and the Future of Politics Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Boix C, Miller M, Rosato S 2013. A complete data set of political regimes, 1800–2007. Comp. Political Stud. 46:121523–54
- Boix C, Stokes S. 2003. Endogenous democratization. World Politics 55:4517–49
- Bolt J, Inklaar R, de Jong H, van Zanden JL 2018. Rebasing “Maddison”: new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development Maddison Proj. Work. Pap 10, Univ Groningen, Groningen, Neth:.
- Brinks D, Coppedge M. 2006. Diffusion is no illusion: neighbor emulation in the third wave of democracy. Comp. Political Stud. 39:4463–89
- Bryce J. 1921. Modern Democracies New York: Macmillan
- Bueno de Mesquita B, Downs GW 2005. Development and democracy. Foreign Aff 84:77–86
- Bueno de Mesquita B, Smith A 2010. Leader survival, revolutions, and the nature of government finance. Am. J. Political Sci. 54:4936–50
- Cantoni D, Chen Y, Yang DY, Yuchtman N, Zhang YJ 2017. Curriculum and ideology. J. Political Econ. 125:2338–92
- Collier RB. 1999. Paths Toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Coppedge M, Gerring J, Knutsen CH, Lindberg S, Teorell J et al. 2019. V-Dem Dataset Ver. 9 (May 6) Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project https://www.v-dem.net/en/data/data-version-9/. Accessed July 9, 2019
- Dunning T. 2008. Crude Democracy: Natural Resource Wealth and Political Regimes New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Edmond C. 2013. Information manipulation, coordination, and regime change. Rev. Econ. Stud. 80:41422–58
- Fearon JD. 2011. Self-enforcing democracy. Q. J. Econ. 126:41661–708
- Fukuyama F. 2014. Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy New York: Macmillan
- Galor O. 2011. Unified Growth Theory Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Goemans HE, Gleditsch KS, Chiozza G 2016. Archigos: A Data Set on Leaders 1875–2004 Ver. 4.1, February 29, 2016 Univ. Rochester https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm. Accessed July 8, 2019
- Gunitsky S. 2017. Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in the Twentieth Century Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Guriev S, Kolotilin A, Sonin K 2011. Determinants of expropriation in the oil sector: a theory and evidence from panel data. J. Law Econ. Org. 27:2301–23
- Guriev S, Treisman D. 2015. How modern dictators survive: an informational theory of the new authoritarianism NBER Work. Pap W21136
- Huntington SP. 1993. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century Norman: Univ. Okla. Press
- Inglehart R, Welzel C. 2005. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Jones BF, Olken BA. 2009. Hit or miss? The effect of assassinations on institutions and war. Am. Econ. J. Macroec. 1:255–87
- Kennedy R. 2010. The contradiction of modernization: a conditional model of endogenous democratization. J. Politics 72:3785–98
- Knutsen CH et al. 2019. Economic development and democracy: an electoral connection. Eur. J. Political Res. 58:1292–314
- Kuran T. 1991. Now out of never: the element of surprise in the East European revolution of 1989. World Politics 44:17–48
- Levi M. 1997. Consent, Dissent, and Patriotism New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Liddle RW. 1996. Indonesia: Suharto's tightening grip. J. Democr. 7:458–72
- Lindberg SI. 2009. Democratization by elections? A mixed record. J. Democr. 20:386–92
- Lipset SM. 1959. Some social requisites of democracy: economic development and political legitimacy. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 53:169–105
- Marshall MG, Jaggers K. 2018. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2017 Vienna, VA: Cent. Systemic Peace
- Marx K, Engels F. 1972. 1848. Manifesto of the Communist Party. The Marx-Engels Reader RC Tucker 469–500 New York: Norton
- Miller MK. 2012. Economic development, violent leader removal, and democratization. Am. J. Political Sci. 56:41002–20
- Moore B. 1966. Social Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship Boston: Beacon
- Murtin F, Wacziarg R. 2014. The democratic transition. J. Econ. Growth 19:2141–81
- North DC, Wallis JJ, Weingast BR 2009. Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- O'Donnell GA. 1988. Bureaucratic Authoritarianism: Argentina, 1966–1973, in Comparative Perspective Berkeley: Univ. Calif. Press
- O'Donnell GA, Schmitter P. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press
- Przeworski A, Alvarez M, Cheibub JA, Limongi F 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990 New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Roberts ME. 2018. Censored: Distraction and Diversion inside China's Great Firewall Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Ross ML. 2012. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Rueschemeyer D, Stephens EH, Stephens JD 1992. Capitalist Development and Democracy Cambridge, UK: Polity
- Sanborn H, Thyne CL. 2014. Learning democracy: education and the fall of authoritarian regimes. Br. J. Political Sci. 44:4773–97
- Scheve K, Stasavage D. 2016. Taxing the Rich: A History of Fiscal Fairness in the United States and Europe Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Skaaning S, Gerring J, Bartusevičius H 2015. A lexical index of electoral democracy. Comp. Political Stud. 48:121491–525
- Tang M, Woods D. 2014. Conditional effect of economic development on democracy—the relevance of the state. Democratization 21:3411–33
- Therborn G. 1979. The travail of Latin American democracy. New Left Rev 113:1471–111
- Treisman D. 2015. Income, democracy, and leader turnover. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:4927–42
- Treisman D. 2017. Democracy by mistake NBER Work. Pap W23944
- Weingast BR. 1997. The political foundations of democracy and the rule of the law. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 91:2245–63
- Weyland K. 2014. Making Waves: Democratic Contention in Europe and Latin America Since the Revolutions of 1848 New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
Data & Media loading...
Supplemental Material
Supplementary Data
Download all Supplemental Material as a single PDF. Includes Supplemental Table 1 and Supplemental Figures 1-3.
- Article Type: Review Article
Most Read This Month
Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed
-
-
-
-
Discursive Institutionalism: The Explanatory Power of Ideas and Discourse
Vol. 11 (2008), pp. 303–326
-
-
-
-
-
The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States
Vol. 22 (2019), pp. 129–146
-
-
-
-
-
Public Attitudes Toward Immigration
Vol. 17 (2014), pp. 225–249
-
-
-
-
-
Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
Vol. 3 (2000), pp. 183–219
-
- More Less