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First published May 2006

Diffusion Is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy

Daniel Brinks and Michael CoppedgeView all authors and affiliations
Volume 39, Issue 4
https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414005276666

Abstract

This article develops and tests a specific model of the role of diffusion as a determinant of the magnitude and direction of regime change, using a database covering the world from 1972 to 1996. The authors find that countries tend to change their regimes to match the average degree of democracy or nondemocracy found among their contiguous neighbors and that countries in the U.S. sphere of influence tended to become more democratic in the period examined. They also confirm that countries tend to follow the direction in which the majority of other countries in the world are moving. Their model builds on several findings in the diffusion literature but adds methodological improvements and includes more extensive controls for other variables that have been found to affect regime change—including levels of development, presidentialism, and regional differences—offering further support for some and challenging other findings of the regime change literature.

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1. As we discuss below, we find that these pressures alone are not enough to trigger a regime change. A country must be ready to move before these pressures can be felt. But our model of convergence suggests that if there is a regime change in Cuba, for example, it will be toward greater democracy and not in the opposite direction.
2. The index is 16 – (political rights + civil liberties), which produces a 13-point index ranging-from 2 (least freedom) to 14 (greatest freedom).
3. We have not yet tried to confirm that our results hold when using Polity data because the best comparison of these indicators finds that the Freedom House (n.d.) data are more valid and more reliable (Bollen, 1993) and because the calculation of a Polity-based diffusion variable would be extremely time-consuming. However, most studies that use both variables tend to find similar results with either one.
4. In averaging Freedom House (n.d.) scores, we are, in effect, treating these scores as if they were ratio-level data, although they are more likely only ordinal and at best perform as intervallevel data. In doing so, we run the risk of introducing noise into our calculations. However, using the tripartite classification instead, as Most and Starr (1990) do, would only further increase the measurement error. In practice, averages of a 13-point index are quite meaningful and are certainly more sensitive to variation than, for example, dichotomies that indicate whether more or less than half of a country's neighbors are democratic. It is fortunate that the more the Freedom House scores differ from an interval-level scale, the less significant our estimate of the diffusion effect would be: To the extent that the variable conflates neighborhoods that show high and lowscores with those that showuniformly average scores, it should simply make it harder to find an effect of diffusion. Therefore our estimates of the effect of diffusion are, if anything, conservative.
5. We also include in the regression a series of dummy variables identifying countries that belong to the same region. These variables serve not to model regional diffusion but to control for the domestic variables that cluster by region or for omitted international impacts on an entire region.
6. Specific coding rules for considering countries’ neighbors are available from the authors. Physical contiguity is the main criterion, but certain island nations are also considered to have neighbors, as in the Caribbean. We do not consider noncontiguous countries neighbors, even if they have significant interaction, leaving these noncontiguous networks for further research.
7. The codings of superpower spheres of influence are available from the authors on request.
8. Running the same models on a full sample produces the same levels of significance, although the coefficients are substantially smaller because of the large number of static cases.
9. Including all the diffusion variables in the same model, rather than running separate tests for each type of network, as Starr and Lindborg (2003) do, permits us to tease out the separate impact of neighbors from regional, global, and superpower networks.
10. A list of the countries and years coded as presidential is available from the authors.
11. O’Loughlin et al. (1998) and Gleditsch andWard (1997) are exceptions, but they use few of the other controls and corrections that we use.
12. A hazard analysis would be an alternative approach to the low incidence of change and some of the case selection issues encountered here. Indeed, some of the most important and interesting studies of diffusion use this method (Most & Starr, 1990; Starr & Lindborg, 2003). We chose the two-stage model partly to produce separate models for the likelihood of change and the magnitude and direction of change, which we find substantively and theoretically interesting, and partly to address more effectively many of the other issues we discuss above.
13. We are very thankful to Mitch Sanders for his assistance in programmingthe Monte Carlo simulations and for his comments as we worked through these issues.
14. This adjustment is based on the sine function. As FH increases from 2 to 14, .5*{sine[15*(FH – 2) – 90] + 1} follows a sine curve rising from 0 to 1. The adjustment used is this function times (one minus this function).
15. One possible substantive interpretation of the bell-shaped control in the first stage is that regimes that are neither fully democratic nor fully authoritarian are less stable than those at either end of the scale. This is consistent with Starr and Lindborg's (2003) finding that partly free countries are less stable than either not free or free countries. Although there is likely some truth to this observation, it is impossible at this point to knowwhether our results are evidence of this empirical pattern or an artifact of the Freedom House (n.d.) index.
16. In preliminary models, we estimate a different coefficient for each superpower administration to test for the impact of different foreign policies of different U.S. administrations and the difference between the foreign policy and influence of the Soviet Union as compared to post-1989 Russia. It is perhaps surprising that we find all U.S. administrations had more or less the same impact, with nonsignificant differences, whereas the impact of the Soviet Union was consistently nonsignificant, even well before its collapse. Our final models, therefore, estimate only the impact of each superpower.
17. To rule out the possibility that results for the diffusion variables are a result of the inadequacy of our correction for sample selection, we run the model on the full data set. The results for diffusion remain significant.
18. The pseudo R2 of Model 5 is only .13 and its predictive power is modest: It predicts nearly 90% of the nontransitions, but only about30% of the transitions, for an overall success rate of just more than 70%. Improvements in the first-stage model may yield a variable that predicts both sets well.
19. Regional variables, being redundant fixed effects, are dropped from the fixed-effects model.
20. Sample selection models make it possible to obtain better estimates of the influence of the second-stage factors if one is able to model the first stage fairly well (Breen, 1982). However, STATA's maximum likelihood algorithm is inappropriate for our problem of, in effect, censoring the outcomes in the center of the distribution, as it is written for the more typical problem of censoring one tail of a distribution, whereas our data present what Moses (1968) refers to as “inner truncation” (p. 196). Fortunately, Kajal Mukhopadhyay derived a modified estimator that uses both tails, minus the zero cases, to correct the error distribution. Lambda is given by λ = [Φ(a–Zg) – Φ(–a – Zg)]/[1 + Φ(–a – Zg) – Φ(a – Zg)], where Φ is the standard normal density function, Φ is the cumulative standard normal distribution function, the Zg are the probit predictions of the probability of a case being selected into the sample of nonzero observations, and a is an arbitrary distance from the zero center of the distribution of Zg. In this application, we set a to .616, which is the Zg value that corresponds to the observed frequency of change. We are extremely grateful to Mukhopadhyay for deriving this estimator and to Vince Wiggins of the STATA Corporation for explaining how the STATA algorithm works.
21. Because this result is contrary to our expectations, and to rule out a spurious result, we tested a number of similar network variables, including average Δd, sum of Δd, sum of absolute values of. d, average number of transitions, sum of transitions, and others, all with a 1st-year lag. None of these variables performed as well, although some approached or achieved significance, and all had a negative tendency. In longer lags, all lost significance.

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Published In

Volume 39, Issue 4
Pages: 463 - 489
Article first published: May 2006
Issue published: May 2006

Keywords

  1. democracy
  2. diffusion
  3. democratization
  4. regime
  5. income

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Authors

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Daniel Brinks
University of Texas, Austin
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Michael Coppedge
University of Notre Dame
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