Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-25wd4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T13:35:39.666Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Effect of State Legislative Term Limits on Voter Turnout

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Kimberly Nalder
Kimberly Nalder*
Affiliation:
California State University, Sacramento
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Term limits advocates argued that the reform would revitalize the electorate and spur increased voter participation. They suggested two main mechanisms by which term limits would do this: (1) term limits would increase the number of open-seat races, which tend to be more competitive, and the increased competition would inspire more voting, and (2) the removal of entrenched incumbents would inspire more trust and confidence in government, thereby encouraging voter enthusiasm in a more diffuse way, increasing turnout for all races. I evaluate these hypotheses empirically using data from California state legislative races from 1976 to 2004; incorporating a variety of methods, including pooled cross-sectional time-series regression. I find evidence that state legislative term limits not only fail to achieve the reformers' goals, but they, in fact, decrease voter turnout.

Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 7 , Issue 2 , Summer 2007 , pp. 187 - 210
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 by the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alvarez, R. Michael, and Butterfield, Tara. 2000. “The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration.” Social Science Quarterly 81:167–79.Google Scholar
Americans to Limit Congressional Terms. 1992. Citizen's Action Manual. Washington, DC: Americans to Limit Congressional Terms.Google Scholar
Baldassare, Mark. 2000. California in the New Millennium: The Changing Social and Political Landscape. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baldassare, Mark. 2002. “The Latino Century Begins.” California Journal 33:26–31.Google Scholar
Basham, Patrick. 2001. “Assessing the Term Limits Experiment: California and Beyond.” Cato Institute Policy Analysis. No. 413.Google Scholar
Basham, Patrick, and Polhill, Dennis. 2005. “Uncompetitive Elections and the American Political System.” Cato Institute Policy Analysis. No.547.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan. 1995. “What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series-Cross-Section Data in Comparative Politics.” American Political Science Review 89:634–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benjamin, Gerald, and Malbin, Michael J.. 1992. Limiting Legislative Terms. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.Google Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 2002. “Democracy, Institutions and Attitudes about Citizen Influence on Government.” British Journal of Political Science 32:371–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyd, Richard W. 1986. “Election Calendars and Voter Turnout.” American Politics Quarterly 14:89–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cain, Becky. 1994. “Term Limits: Not the Answer to What Ails Politics.” In The Politics and Law of Term Limits, eds. Crane, Edward H. and Pilon, Roger. Washington, DC: Cato Institute.Google Scholar
Cain, Bruce E., and Levin, Marc A.. 1999. “Term Limits.” Annual Review of Political Science 2:163–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cain, Bruce E., and Kousser, Thad. 2004. Adapting to Term Limits: Recent Experiences and New Directions. Los Angeles, CA: Public Policy Institute of California.Google Scholar
California Secretary of State. 1990. “The Pros and the Cons of Proposition 140.” California Ballot Pamphlet. November 6, 1990, General Election.Google Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 1998. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 23:271–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2000. Term Limits in the State Legislatures. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caress, Stanley M. 1996. “The Impact of Term Limits on Legislative Behavior: An Examination of a Transitional Legislature.” PS: Political Science and Politics 29:671–7.Google Scholar
Chi, Keon S., and Leatherby, Drew. 1998. “State Legislative Term Limits.” In Solutions: Policy Options for State Decision-Makers. Lexington, KY: Center for State Trends and Innovations, Council of State Governments.Google Scholar
Clucas, Richard A. 2003. “California: The New Amateur Politics.” In The Test of Time: Coping with Legislative Term Limits, eds. Farmer, Rick, Rausch, John David, and Green, John C.. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Munger, Michael C.. 1989. “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections.” American Political Science Review 83:217–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coyne, James K. 1992. Kick the Bums Out!: The Case for Term Limitations. Bethesda, MD: Americans to Limit Congressional Terms, National Press Books.Google Scholar
Coyne, James K., and Fund, John H.. 1992. Cleaning House: America's Campaign for Term Limits. Washington, DC: Regnery Gateway.Google Scholar
Craig, Stephen C. 1996. “The Angry Voter: Politics and Popular Discontent in the 1990s.” In Broken Contract: Changing Relationships between Americans and Their Government, ed. Craig, S.C.. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Daniel, Kermit, and Lott, John R. Jr. 1997. “Term Limits and Electoral Competitiveness: Evidence from California's State Legislative Races.” Public Choice 90:165–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DiCamillo, Mark, and Field, Mervin. 2002. “Little Voter Awareness of Prop. 45 (term limits) and Prop. 42 (transportation). Chances for Prop. 45 Affected by Its Fiscal Impact and Voters' Long-Standing Support for Term Limits.” The Field Institute Release #2027. February 5.Google Scholar
Doron, Gideon, and Harris, Michael. 2001. Term Limits. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper-Collins.Google Scholar
Easton, David. 1965. A Systems Analysis of Political Life. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Endersby, James, Galatas, Steven, and Rackaway, Chapman. 2002. “Closeness Counts in Canada: Voter Participation in the 1993 and 1997 Federal Elections.” Journal of Politics 64:610–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francis, Wayne L., and Kenny, Lawrence W.. 1997. “Equilibrium Projections of the Consequences of Term Limits upon Expected Tenure, Institutional Turnover, and Membership Experience.” Journal of Politics 59:240–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franklin, Mark N. 1996. “Electoral Participation.” In Comparing Democracies, eds. LeDuc, Lawrence, Niemi, Richard G., and Norris, Pippa. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Fund, John H. 1990. “Term Limitation: An Idea Whose Time Has Come.” Cato Institute Policy Analysis. No. 141.Google Scholar
Gilliam, Franklin D. 1985. “Influences on Voter Turnout for U.S. House Elections in Non-Presidential Years.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 10:339–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Collet, Christian, and Griffin, Robert. 1998. “Analyzing the Turnout-Competition Link with Aggregate Cross-Sectional Data.” Public Choice 95:233–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hero, Rodney E., and Tolbert, Caroline J.. 2004. “Minority Voices and Citizen Attitudes about Government Responsiveness in the American States: Do Social and Institutional Context Matter?” British Journal of Political Science 34:109–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, M.J. 1998. “The Political Relevance of Political Trust.” American Political Science Review 92:791–808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, M.J. 1999. “The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote.” American Political Science Review 93:311–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbing, John. R., and Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth. 2001. “Process Preferences and American Politics: What the People Want Government to Be.” American Political Science Review 95:145–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth. 2002. Stealth Democracy: Americans' Beliefs about How Government Should Work. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, Kim Quaile, and Leighley, Jan E.. 1993. “Party Ideology, Organization, and Competitiveness as Mobilizing Forces in Gubernatorial Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 37:1158–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, Kim Quaile, and Leighley, Jan E.. 1994. “Mobilizing Institutions and Class Representation in U.S. State Electorates.” Political Research Quarterly 47:137–50.Google Scholar
Hill, Kim Quaile, and Leighley, Jan E.. 1996. “Political Parties and Class Mobilization in Contemporary United States Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 40:787–804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Robert A. 1997. “Mobilization of U.S. State Electorates in the 1988 and 1990 Elections.” Journal of Politics 59:520–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Robert A. 2000. “Differential Influences on Participation in Midterm versus Presidential Elections.” Social Science Journal 37:385–402.Google Scholar
Jacob, Paul. 1994. “From the Voters with Care.” In The Politics and Law of Term Limits, eds. Crane, Edward H. and Pilon, Roger. Washington, DC: Cato Institute.Google Scholar
Karp, Jeffrey A. 1995. “Explaining Public Support for Legislative Term Limits.” Public Opinion Quarterly 59:373–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kavenagh, Brian, Mayo, Lucy, Caro, Steve, and Slater, Mike. 2005. “Ten Years Later: A Promise Unfulfilled.” Demos, Project Vote, and ACORN. http://projectvote.org/fileadmin/PV/PDF/Tens_Years_Later_A_Promise_Unfulfilled.pdf.Google Scholar
Levi, Margaret, and Stoker, Laura. 2000. “Political Trust and Trustworthiness.” Annual Review of Political Science 3:475–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Michael P., and Popkin, Samuel. 2001. “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter.” American Political Science Review 95:963–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Warren E. 1992. “The Puzzle Transformed: Explaining Declining Turnout.” Political Behavior 14:1–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martinez, Michael, and Hill, David. 1999. “Did Motor Voter Work?” American Politics Research 27:296–315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moncrief, Gary F. 1998. “Candidate Spending in State Legislative Races.” In Campaign Finance in State Legislative Elections, eds. Thompson, Joel A. and Moncrief, Gary F.. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Moncrief, Gary F., Thompson, Joel A., Haddon, Michael, and Hoyer, Robert. 1992. “For Whom the Bell Tolls: Term Limits and State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 17:37–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moncrief, Gary F., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2003. “Time, Term Limits, and Turnover: Trends in Membership Turnover in U.S. State Legislatures.” Presented at the Third Annual State Politics and Policy Conference, Tucson, AZ.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mondak, Jeffery J. 1995. “Elections as Filters: Term Limits and the Composition of the U.S. House.” Political Research Quarterly 48:701–27.Google Scholar
Nicholson, Stephen P. 2003. “The Political Environment and Ballot Proposition Awareness.” American Journal of Political Science 47:403–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholson, Stephen P. 2005. Voting the Agenda: Candidates, Elections, and Ballot Propositions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Nicholson, Stephen P., and Miller, Ross A.. 1997. “Prior Beliefs and Voter Turnout in the 1986 and 1988 Congressional Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 50:199–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholson-Crotty, Sean, and Meier, Kenneth J.. 2002. “Size Doesn't Matter: In Defense of Single-State Studies.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 2:411–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patterson, Samuel C., and Caldeira, Gregory A.. 1983. “Getting Out the Vote: Participation in Gubernatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 77:675–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petracca, Mark. 1992. “Why Political Scientists Oppose Term Limits.” Briefing Paper No. 14. Washington, DC: Cato Institute.Google Scholar
Petracca, Mark. 1996. “A Legislature in Transition: The California Experience with Term Limits.” Working Paper 96–1. Berkeley, CA: IGA.Google Scholar
Pinney, Neil, Serra, George, and Sprick, Dalene 2004. “The Costs of Reform: Consequences of Limiting Legislative Terms of Service.” Party Politics 10:69–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 2000. Why Americans Still Don't Vote: And Why Politicians Want It That Way. Boston, MA: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Richard J. 2000. “The Impact of Term Limits on the Candidacy Decisions of State Legislators in U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 25:645–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hansen, John Mark. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy. New York: Macmillan Press.Google Scholar
Salka, William M. 2002. “Term Limits and Electoral Competition: Analysis of California Legislative Races.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA.Google Scholar
Schaffner, Brian F., and Streb, Matthew J.. “The Partisan Heuristic in Low-Information Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 66:559–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Mark A. 1999. “Public Opinion, Elections, and Representation within a Market Economy: Does the Structural Power of Business Undermine Popular Sovereignty?” American Journal of Political Science 43:842–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Mark A. 2001. “The Contingent Effects of Ballot Initiatives and Candidate Races on Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 45:700–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James A. 1985. “Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay.” American Journal of Political Science 29:914–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Texiera, Ruy. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: Brookings.Google Scholar
Timpone, Richard J. 1998. “Structure, Behavior, and Voter Turnout in the United States.” American Political Science Review 92:145–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., Grummel, John A., and Smith, Daniel A.. 2001. “The Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout in the American States.” American Politics Research 29:625–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., and Smith, Daniel A.. 2005. “The Educative Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout.” American Politics Research 33:2283–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tucker, Harvey J. 1986. “Contextual Models of Participation in U.S. State Legislative Elections.” Western Political Quarterly 39:67–78.Google Scholar
Will, George. 1992. Restoration: Congress, Term Limits and the Recovery of Deliberative Democracy. New York: The Free Press.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Steven J.. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Wrightor, J. Mark, and Squire, Peverill. 1997. “Uncontested Seats and Electoral Competition for the U.S. House of Representatives Over Time.” Journal of Politics 59:452–68.Google Scholar
Yang, Kelly. 2001. “Term Limits Get Too Much Credit for Boosting Female and Minority Representation.” Institute of Governmental Studies Public Affairs Report. University of California, Berkeley. 43:2.Google Scholar