The Effect of All-mail Elections on Voter Turnout
Abstract
Proponents of all-mail elections argue that this type of election facilitates participation such that elevated levels of turnout occur. The research tests this assumption by analyzing 48 statewide elections from the state of Oregon. This analysis suggests that the all-mail format is a major stimulus to voter participation, second only to the impact of a presidential contest.
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1.
1. We use the term all-mail election, instead of vote by mail, to distinguish this research from previous investigations of absentee voting (see Oliver, 1996; Patterson & Caldeira, 1985; Squire, Wolfinger, & Glass, 1987).
2.
2. The possibility of voter fraud is a major concern of opponents of all-mail elections (see Jacoby, 1996; Ornstein, 1996; Will, 1995).
3.
3. In general, the cost of conducting all-mail elections is one third to one half of the amount required for polling place elections (State of Oregon, 1996).
4.
4. The 1995 Republican-controlled state legislature passed a bill that would have made the all-mail format the procedure for all types of elections. The impetus for this bill was the high level of absentee voting (22% of all votes) in the 1994 general election, which delayed the certification of the outcomes for many weeks. However, this bill was vetoed by the Democratic governor, John Kitzhaber; he argued that it was too early for Oregon to adopt such a reform without further study or experimentation.
5.
5. The nonpresidential primary election and the fall 1996 general election are considered to be a “mixed” form of election. In 1995, the electoral law was changed in Oregon to permit registration as a “permanent absentee voter” without any need to justify this status on the part of the voter. As a result, the amount of absentee voting in polling place elections skyrocketed in Oregon, rising to 48% of all votes cast in the fall 1996 general election. As result, most “polling place” elections since 1995 in Oregon are truly of a mixed type and therefore distinct from the early types of polling-place elections.
6.
6. See Norrander (1991) and Jackson (1996). Jackson argues that the failure of previous research to recognize the two-stage process of voting by analyzing eligible, rather than registered, voters has had the effect of underestimating systemic influences on the turnout.
7.
7. Clearly registration is an important barrier to participation (Erikson, 1981; Rosenstone & Wolfinger, 1978), but the goal here is to assess the impact of the specific all-mail format on the electorate.
8.
8. For primary elections, we take the average of the Democrat and Republican competitiveness.
References
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