Abstract
The forced migration literature has acknowledged violence as the main driver of internal displacement in the context of armed conflicts. Nonetheless, scant attention has been devoted to the role of income, a factor identified by the standard economic literature as the key driver of voluntary migration. This study aims to fill in this gap by investigating the impact of agricultural income shocks on the number of internally displaced persons fleeing from violence, in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. To address the possible endogeneity between forced migration and income, we use the standardized deviation of rainfall from its historic mean as an instrumental variable for municipal agricultural income. Our main results suggest that the elasticity of forced migration with respect to agricultural income shocks is unitary. This finding highlights the fact that forced migration is the result of a complex decision-making process where violence interacts with individual characteristics and environmental factors. Therefore, public policies aimed at reducing forced migration from rural to urban areas should develop comprehensive strategies that not only improve security conditions at the place of origin but also enhance agricultural productivity and provide access to risk-coping mechanisms for farmers.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the participants at the XI Encuentro Nacional y III Internacional de la Asociación Colombiana de Estudios Regionales y Urbanos (Cali, Colombia), 20th Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty 2019 (Washington, U.S.) and the 1st Latin American Peace Science Society (LAPSS) 2020 meeting (Medellín, Colombia). The usual disclaimer applies.
Appendix 1: Data Sources Used to Calculate The Agricultural Income Variable
| Product | Price source |
|---|---|
| Cotton | Ministry of Agriculture – Sector Reportsa |
| Rubber | Ministry of Agriculture – Sector Reportsa |
| Tobacco | Ministry of Agriculture – Sector Reportsa |
| Wheat | Ministry of Agriculture – Sector Reportsa |
| Cocoa Beans | National Cocoa Federation (FEDECACAO)b |
| Coffee Beans | National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC)b |
| Oil Palm | National Federation of Palm Growers (FEDEPALMA)b |
| Panela | National Federation of Paneleros (FEDEPANELA)b |
| Rice | National Federation of Rice Growers (FEDEARROZ)b |
| Avocados | SIPSAc |
| Bananas | SIPSAc |
| Export Bananas | SIPSAc |
| Corn | SIPSAc |
| Potatoes | SIPSAc |
| Pineapple | SIPSAc |
| Plantain | SIPSAc |
| Cassava | SIPSAc |
aThe Ministry of Agriculture periodically evaluates the situation of the agricultural sectors, including the prices paid to producers. bAssociations of a union and national nature, made up of producers of specific products that join to improve their representativeness. cPrice Information System of the Agricultural Sector (SIPSA). These prices are calculated as the annual average for wholesalers in local markets.
Appendix 2: Sources and Units of the Variables Used
| Variable | Measure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) | Annual number of IDPs by the municipality | National Information Network (RNI), Victim’s Unit |
| Agricultural Income and Weighted Agricultural Income | Annual weighted crop revenue by the municipality | Q = Municipal Agricultural Evaluations (EVA); P = Price Information System of the Agricultural Sector (SIPSA) |
| Agricultural credits | Agricultural loans by municipality | Agrarian Bank of Colombia (Banco Agrario de Colombia) |
| Conflict Intensity | Annual number of terrorist and subversive actions | Ministry of National Defense of Colombia |
| Coca Bush Cultivated Area | Hectares of coca cultivated in the municipality | United Nations Office on Drugs, Crime (UNODC) and Integrated Illicit Crop Monitoring System (SIMCI) |
| Rural Population | Projection of the number of persons living in rural areas in the municipality based in the 2005 census | National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) |
| Fiscal Index Performance | Index between 0 and 100 | National Planning Department (DNP). |
| Rainfall | Annual rainfall by the municipality | Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) |
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