Joyce Ehrlinger

Men rate progress toward gender equality more favorably than do women. Across two studies with U.S. undergraduate samples, we explore whether this difference in perceived progress stems from a gender difference in chosen reference points. Using ANOVA and regression, we demonstrate that men (n = 33) assess progress relative to the past more than to the goal of full equality. In contrast, women (n = 46) assess progress relative to full equality as much as to the past. As a result, current progress seems more substantial to men than to women. Experimental manipulation of reference points led men (n = 60) and women (n = 60) to adopt the same reference point and, consequently, to offer similar assessments of progress.

From drug policy to environmental initiatives, well-intentioned actions have often led to dramatic unintended consequences. The present research demonstrates that individuals focus on what is intended in a way that leads them to not sufficiently consider important unintended consequences. Participants fail to sufficiently weight the unintended consequences of attempts to satisfy preferences in a computer simulation (Study 1). Focus on intended consequences, and the resulting error in prediction, is reduced when the interrelatedness of variables within a system is highlighted (Studies 2 and 3). This research can inform means of improving predictions within complex systems.

People commonly perceive social conditions as declining. We propose that perceptions of social decline are often a consequence of a bias whereby people mistake change in themselves for change in the world. The present research demonstrates that common personal changes such as the parenthood transition (Studies 1–2) and physical aging (Study 3) may increase a person's sensitivity to dangers and thereby contribute to an illusory perception that external dangers are increasing. We use experimental models of the hypothesized change processes to test whether these common personal changes may contribute to judgments of social decline.

An important source of people's perceptions of their performance, and potential errors in those perceptions, are chronic views people hold regarding their abilities. In support of this observation, manipulating people's general views of their ability, or altering which view seemed most relevant to a task, changed performance estimates independently of any impact on actual performance. A final study extended this analysis to why women disproportionately avoid careers in science. Women performed equally to men on a science quiz, yet underestimated their performance because they thought less of their general scientific reasoning ability than did men. They, consequently, were more likely to refuse to enter a science competition.

An important source of people's perceptions of their performance, and potential errors in those perceptions, are chronic views people hold regarding their abilities. In support of this observation, manipulating people's general views of their ability, or altering which view seemed most relevant to a task, changed performance estimates independently of any impact on actual performance. A final study extended this analysis to why women disproportionately avoid careers in science. Women performed equally to men on a science quiz, yet underestimated their performance because they thought less of their general scientific reasoning ability than did men. They, consequently, were more likely to refuse to enter a science competition.