Last night Michelle Obama was on Larry King Live. He asked her about the “Bradley Effect” in the context of the presidential election. She suggested that we may be past the possibility of a Bradley Effect. Here is the exchange:
KING: We’re back with Michelle Obama. How do you react when people talk about the Tom Bradley effect? Tom Bradley was mayor of Los Angeles. He ran for governor of California. The polls had him 65 percent, a sweep, it’s over. I think he was practicing his acceptance speech and he lost. And the Bradley factors become people who were afraid to say, I’m against a black and then voted against.
Do you fear that here? An anti-black vote?
M. OBAMA: People talk about it all the time. But, it’s theoretical in the case of this election. Because —
KING: But you have a past case to look at.
M. OBAMA: But also, look where we are, Larry. Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee. If there was going to be a Bradley effect, or it was going to be in play, Barack wouldn’t be the nominee.
We have to focus on the country as it is. That was several decades ago. And I think that there’s been growth and movement. Now, there will be people who will never vote for Barack Obama. But, there will be people who will never vote for John McCain either. I think right now, people are so focused on what is the fate of our country, not just here domestically, but internationally. And I just believe that the issues are going to weigh in people’s hearts more so as they go into the voting booths this time around, than anything else.
“Theoretical”? What do you think? Are we past it? And if we’re not, how much of a margin needs to be built into the poll numbers to account for it? According to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Barack Obama is now up by 11 percentage points.
Also, Gallop has an article today that says Barack Obama’s race could be a plus as well as a minus. From the article:
“While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters’ self-reported attitudes are taken into account.”
Your thoughts?
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