hankyoreh

By Ahn Chang-hyun, staff reporter

Nearly half of all respondents in a recent poll said they disagreed with Park Geun-hye’s assessment that her father’s 1961 coup was “unavoidable, the best possible choice, and an advisable decision.”

The question was posed as part of a regular survey of one thousand adults across the country on July 27 and 28 by the Hankyoreh and the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI). 49.9% of respondents answered that they disagreed with the New Frontier Party (NFP) presidential contender’s characterization, while 37.2% said they agreed.

Park‘s remarks came during a debate on July 16, where she was asked for her feelings on the 1961 coup that put her father Park Chung-hee in power. She doubled down a week later, declaring in a July 24 televised debate that “recent polls show more than 50% of people agreed with my remarks.”

But the numbers show that to be untrue.

To begin with, they showed her 3.9 percentage points behind software mogul Ahn Cheol-soo in a two-way race for the presidency, with 44.9% to his 48.8%. The same survey in late June had her in the lead by 5.6 percentage points, with 50.0% to his 44.8%. Although both sets of results had them neck and neck within the margin of error, they do indicate a turning tide. Some observers are predicting Ahn will recover his lead after a spike for Park in the wake of the NFP’s general elections victory in April.

The two prospective candidates were even in the Busan/Ulsan/South Gyeongsang province area, where Ahn had 46.8% of votes to Park‘s 47.0%. Respondents in their forties, traditionally seen as a major barometer for presidential election outcomes, preferred Ahn in a two-way race by a 53.6% to 40.4% margin.

Ahn also opened up a twenty-plus percent lead of Park among the highly educated (university graduates and higher) and people making 4.01 million won (US$3,530) a month or more, with ratings of 57% to 58% versus Park’s 35% to 36%. In contrast, Park dominated with ratings of 64% to 66% among those with a middle school education or under and monthly earnings of two million won (US$1,760) or less.

Park’s invulnerable image was also undercut by results from a multiple-candidate scenario. While last month’s survey had her with more than twice Ahn’s support in such a race, with 42.1% to his 20.6%, the latest numbers have the gap narrowed to 39.1% for Park versus 31.2% for Ahn.

“In contrast to the support levels in a two-way race, the levels in a multiple-candidate race show political support for that particular candidate,” explained KSOI chief analyst Yoon Hee-woong.

“The fact that Ahn had a rating of more than 30% in a multiple-candidate race means that the interest and favorable attention is turning into an actual political base,” Yoon added.

The same scenario had DUP primary candidates Moon Jae-in, Sohn Hak-kyu, and Kim Doo-kwan with ratings of just 9.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8%, respectively.

Ahn also showed the strongest ability to rally DUP supporters. The ratings for his two-way race with Park showed him receiving support from 81.5% of DUP voters, compared to just 75.2% for Moon, 51.7% for Sohn, and 47.2% for Kim.

Regardless of support levels, however, respondents named Park as more likely than Ahn to actually win in December, with 49.9% giving her name compared to 39.9% giving Ahn’s. The results were somewhat expected, given that Ahn has yet to officially declare his candidate or present specific policies and people he intends to work with.

Also, more respondents said Ahn should not run in the election than said he should. When asked whether Ahn should run, 46.6% answered negatively, compared to 41.3% who responded in the affirmative.

Much of this was due to the strong opposition of NFP supporters, 71.8% of whom were against a run by Ahn. However, a notably high rate of opposition (48%) came from the Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon areas.

The survey was conducted through random digit dialing of equal numbers of landlines and mobile phones. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

　

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]