If Nissan has its way, reading your e-mail while driving to work may soon be acceptable behind-the-wheel behavior. The automaker says it will market autonomous-drive vehicles – cars that can operate without the assistance of a driver – by 2020. Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Nissan, said in a news release, “I am committing to be ready to introduce a new groundbreaking technology, autonomous drive, by 2020, and we are on track to realize it.”
A host of advanced equipment is needed for autonomous operation, including cameras that can see the area surrounding the vehicle; radar sensors that measure distance; laser scanners that detect the shape of objects; a global-positioning sensor that locates the vehicle; advanced computer systems that apply artificial intelligence to that data and make driving decisions; and a variety of actuators that can execute driving maneuvers while compensating for less than ideal conditions.
In a speech at a media event in California, Andy Palmer, a Nissan executive vice president, said, “Our autonomous-driving vehicles utilize cameras, sensors, global positioning sensors and machine technologies – including the Safety Shield features already offered in many of our models – to maneuver with reduced human intervention, or without any human intervention.”
That suggests levels of autonomy that a driver could select. In an e-mail, Steve Yaeger, a Nissan spokesman, confirmed that autonomous operation was driver-selectable in prototype vehicles the automaker demonstrated at a recent media event.
Some of today’s vehicles, including some made by Nissan, qualify as semiautonomous. Intelligent cruise control can keep track of a vehicle’s place in traffic and adjust speed accordingly. Lane-departure warning systems can alert the driver if the vehicle crosses over lane markings. Lane-departure prevention systems go a step further and apply corrective measures. Intelligent braking systems can bring a vehicle to a halt if the driver fails to brake in time. But it’s a giant step from these aids to fully autonomous operation. Providing assistance when a driver fails to react is a technical challenge, but developing a foolproof artificial intelligence system that can make all driving decisions is far more complex.
Technical hurdles are just one of the problems that an autonomous vehicle pioneer faces. Bryan Reimer, a research scientist engaged in driver workload studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, isn’t sure that humans can cope with these technologies. His research, and the work of others in the field, has determined that the sweet spot for driver awareness is somewhere between understimulated and overstimulated.
“We are capable of developing the sensors and systems for an autonomous vehicle, but do we know how people will interact?” he said in a telephone interview. “What happens when people start driving them? Autonomy complacency among pilots has become a problem in aviation. The broad issue is not whether we can develop the technologies, but whether we can develop cohesive interfaces that drivers can operate successfully without losing their skills.”
In May, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced plans for research on safety issues related to autonomous vehicles. A policy statement expressed support for technologies that “have the potential to reduce significantly the many thousands of fatalities and injuries that occur each year as a result of motor vehicle crashes.” The agency has not published standards but has said, “Research will be performed to support the development of any potential technical requirements for automated vehicle systems.”
There is also the question of liability. Will the vehicle occupant who is not actually at the controls of an autonomous vehicle be liable if that vehicle is involved in an accident, or will the manufacturer that engineered the driving system have to accept responsibility?
Nissan’s introduction of the fully electric Leaf before the development of the infrastructure necessary to support E.V.’s was a bold move. An autonomous-drive vehicle takes the company’s boldness to a new level. But Nissan is making the leap and has begun development of a proving ground in Japan that would enable testing of autonomous vehicles in real-world conditions.
“Nissan Motor Company is ready,” Mr. Palmer said. “We are on a mission to be the most progressive car company in the world, and to redefine how motorists interact with their vehicles.”
With the driverless Nissan scheduled to appear in seven years, the world may be ready when it arrives. But the technology is not ready yet. In its Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles, N.H.T.S.A., which will have the final word on autonomous vehicles in the United States, wrote that it “does not recommend that states authorize the operation of self-driving vehicles for purposes other than testing at this time,” adding, “We believe there are a number of technological issues as well as human performance issues that must be addressed before self-driving vehicles can be made widely available.”