SILVER LINE
OVERVIEW
This report focuses on the Dulles Metrorail extension (the Silver Line) in Fairfax County, Virginia and its impacts on demographics, development and the overall real estate market. Fairfax County’s growth as an information technology and government contractor center has warranted an expansion of public transportation. A 2009 report issued by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) indicated that the Dulles and Route 28 Corridors (encompassing such areas as Tysons Corner, McLean, Falls Church, Vienna, Reston, Herndon, Chantilly and parts of Loudoun County) generated 4.0 percent of the metro area’s economy in 1980. At the time of this report, that portion had jumped to 25.0 percent.
The expansion of public transportation, in the form of an extended rail line and increased bus service, will bring a number of benefits to the region. There will be more direct service to Virginia from Washington, DC. The structural changes will ensure economic competitiveness. Lastly, commuting time will be reduced as the Silver Line will relieve some of the congestion on the Blue and Orange Lines. Per a MWAA report, rush hour trains on the Blue Line run every 14 minutes. When the Silver Line opens, that time will be reduced to every 12 minutes.
Spring 2014 is the anticipated date for the start of service on the Silver Line. Construction of the five Metro stations was recently completed and developers are working on software testing. The system will then go under 90 days of testing and staff training.
The $3.2 billion project consists of an 11.7 mile extension from East Falls Church to Wiehle Avenue in Reston. Phase I adds five new stations to the route: McLean, Tysons Corner, Greensboro, Spring Hill and Wiehle – Reston East. Additionally, pedestrian bridges along Routes 123 and 7, and the Dulles Airport Highway Corridor have been installed.
Phase 2 will extend the railway 11.4 miles northwest from Wiehle Avenue to Washington’s Dulles International Airport out to Route 772. Six stations will be added to the route: Reston Town Center, Herndon, Innovation Center, Dulles International Airport, Route 606 and Route 772. On May 14, 2013, the MWAA announced that Phase 2’s design-build portion was awarded to a joint venture between Clark Construction Group and Kiewit Infrastructure South Co, which bid $1.18 billion.
A 2012 report produced by Fairfax County’s Department of Neighborhood and Community Services listed Fairfax’s population at 1.1 million persons. Compared to 1970, this is a 144 percent increase. Population density for the county is estimated at 406.83 per square mile with the highest densities on the eastern side of the county, nearest to Washington, DC.
The population of Fairfax County has some of the highest educational attainment in the country. Almost 60 percent of those aged 25 years or more have attained a college degree or higher. Fifty-six percent of the residents work in the management, business, science, and arts occupations. In 2011, median household income was recorded as $105,797.
The addition of the Silver Line extension will cause a dramatic population increase in the Tysons Urban Center over the next few decades. According to the “Report to Board of Supervisors on Tysons,” there are 17,000 residents and 105,000 persons employed within the Tysons Urban Center. The report predicts that by 2050 the Tysons area may have up to 100,000 residents and 200,000 employees.
A survey of the population within a three-mile radius of each future station has, at the minimum, 80,000 persons. The largest population is in the radius of the Tysons Corner station. As such, automobile congestion remains a major burden in the area. A primary component of the Tysons redevelopment plan is to minimize the number of residents commuting to work by automobile and encourage them to either walk or rely on public transportation. The 20-year plan proposes: retail and office developments to be located within ¼ mile of the Tysons rail stations; streets and roadways redesigned to accommodate pedestrian traffic (including adding bicycle lanes), and expanded local bus service.
Fairfax County has planned a significant redesign of the Tysons Urban Center which encompasses the Metro Stations of McLean, Tysons Corner, Greensboro and Spring Hill. In 2010, a comprehensive 20-year redevelopment plan for Tysons was approved. The plan focuses on its transformation from a suburb to an urban center with mixed-use developments (office, retail, hotel, arts/civic and residential). One of the plan’s stated goals is to create four jobs for every household.
Employers who relocate to stops along the Silver Line will not have to sacrifice access to a young, professional workforce. A portion of “Gen Y” individuals have eschewed car ownership for reliance on public transportation and the excitement of urban living. The enhanced public transportation to the suburbs will allow them to work in employment hubs like Tysons Corner, but still live in Downtown DC or Arlington.
Between October 2012 and September 2013, developers submitted 19 applications to rezone 240 acres in the Tysons Urban Center area. Seven applications have been approved so far, which per the report, will deliver 8.0 million square feet (msf) of non-residential development that can accommodate 21,000 new employees and 9.0 msf of residential development which could house 12,000 people. Eight remaining applications are under review and another four have been deferred.
A number of proposed developments will be structured as micro-communities with office, retail and residential components. As stated earlier, residents will be within walking distance of the five stations to discourage car usage. Additionally, parks and walking trails will be incorporated into a number of the development communities.
Fairfax County has 408,119 housing units with single family homes, both attached and detached, accounting for a majority of housing. It is estimated that multifamily housing will increase significantly in the coming years accounting for 39.1 percent of housing units by 2040. Around the stations that make up Phase I, an estimated 13,000 units could come on line.
The issue of funding has also been a heated topic over the last several years. As of today, the entire project will likely cost up to $6 billion. Almost 50.0% of funding will come from revenue raised by the Dulles Toll Road while the Federal government will cover a third of the cost.
METRO STATIONS
METRO INVESTMENT CASE STUDY
OUTLOOK