President Joe Biden should be commended for uniting the West against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Nevertheless, he was wrong to pre-commit NATO to nonintervention. This allowed Putin to commit more easily to a full invasion. Had Biden chosen strategic ambiguity by expanding NATO deployments in Eastern Europe in tandem with Putin’s buildup, NATO’s deterrence and bargaining position would have been enhanced.
Now Biden is doubling down on his fateful opening move — making clear that a no-fly zone will never happen. Again, he allows Putin to count the cost and proceed with any escalation of force. The risk is clear: Will Putin use a small nuclear weapon on a Ukrainian city? Wipe out Ukrainian civilians to end their military’s resistance?
Any hope that NATO can sit this one out amounts to wishful thinking. If and when Kyiv falls, the fighting will shift westward toward Lviv. And Putin will not be able to stop short of taking Lviv by means of a Ukrainian partition — he will be under constant attack from Ukrainian forces in the west and Ukrainian insurgents in the occupied east. If Lviv falls, Ukrainians will continue the insurgency by finding a haven in NATO states such as Poland, setting the stage for direct conflict between NATO and Russia. Russia would characterize Polish support for Ukrainian insurgents as a NATO act of war against Russia, and he might well brandish the threat of nuclear war in response.
Setting the stage for NATO intervention now could push the parties to the negotiating table, ensure the territorial preservation of a Ukrainian state, and avert a humanitarian catastrophe of monumental proportions.
Toward that end, NATO should immediately prepare to implement a no-fly zone and set simple, clear conditions under which the alliance will intervene. These conditions might include the use of illegal weapons and indiscriminate bombing of civilians. NATO’s capability combined with clear terms of action will chill the brazenness of the Russian assault. More importantly, if and when the no-fly zone is actually triggered, Russia will be the one triggering it, undercutting its (false) narrative of victimhood.
In response, Putin will undoubtedly play the madman. He will huff and puff and threaten to eviscerate the globe in a nuclear war. But he will not do so in the face of a united Western response. There are simply too many countries on the other side and too many nuclear warheads pointed at Russia. Russia must be met with nerves of steel and a willingness to fight for democracy. Immediate preparations for a no-fly zone with unambiguous triggering conditions will offer that course.
Timothy Snyder is an attorney at a global law firm in Washington, D.C.
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Editor’s note: The final paragraph of this article has been updated to better reflect the author’s original argument.
