Summary
On 24–25 February 1989 a storm brought high winds and moderate to heavy snow to the U.S. East Coast. The storm is noteworthy for its rapid mesoscale development within a polar air mass at relatively low latitudes and for the difficulty experienced by operational NWP models and forecasters in predicting the storm’s impact. This paper investigates the mesoscale structure and evolution of the cold-air cyclone through analysis of enhanced data sets collected during the \(\underline{\rm E}\)xperiment on \(\underline{\rm R}\)apidly \(\underline{\rm I}\)ntensifying \(\underline{\rm C}\)yclones over the \(\underline{\rm A}\)tlantic (ERICA). Results are presented from numerical sensitivity studies of the impact of diabatic heating on storm structure and track using the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model.
The following conclusions are drawn from the research. Differential surface fluxes in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream led to the development of a well-defined baroclinic zone at low levels that extended parallel to the axis of the Gulf-Stream front. The baroclinic zone strengthened and assumed the characteristics of a shallow warm front as the cyclone matured. Enhanced cyclonic vorticity, moisture-flux convergence, clouds, and precipitation accompanied the front. Early in the event a series of shallow, thermally forced vortices of small wavelength (∼200 km) formed along the baroclinic zone in the area of maximum surface-heat fluxes offshore of the Carolinas. Baroclinic instability associated with a vigorous short-wave trough aloft resulted in the outbreak of deep convection surrounding and rapid intensification of the northernmost vortex.
Numerical sensitivity experiments were conducted to investigate the nonlinear response of the mass field to the convection. The results show that latent heating in deep convection surrounding the surface low produced a mesoscale height perturbation aloft. The subsequent acceleration of the flow aloft substantially increased the integrated mass divergence above the surface cyclone, leading to deepening on the scale observed. The observed track of the low followed the axis of the warm front, which in turn followed the axis of maximum SST gradient associated with the Gulf-Stream front. Accurate simulation of the storm track required a high-resolution, full-physics run that included high-resolution SST data in the initial condition and moisture nudging during the early hours of the simulation.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
MD Albright RJ Reed DW Ovens (1995) ArticleTitleOrigin and structure of a numerically simulated polar low over Hudson Bay. Tellus 47A 834–848
Anderson RK, Ashman JP, Bittner F, Farr GR, Ferguson EW, Oliver, VJ, Smith AH (1969) Application of meteorological satellite data in analysis and forecasting. ESSA Tech. Rep. NESC51, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC [NTIS AD-697033]
PSP Arya (1988) NoChapterTitle Introduction to micrometeorology. Academic Press Chicago 307
Barnes SL (1973) Mesoscale objective analysis using weighted time-series observations. NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL NSSL-62, Norman, OK, 60 pp
T Bergeron (1928) ArticleTitleÜber die dreidimensional verknüpfende Wetteranalyse I. Geofys Publ 5 IssueID6 111
LF Bosart (1981) ArticleTitleThe president’s day snowstorm of 18–19 February 1979: A subsynoptic-scale event. Mon Wea Rev 109 1542–1566
KA Browning FF Hill (1984) ArticleTitleStructure and evolution of a mesoscale convective system near the British Isles. Quart J Roy Met Soc 110 897–913
S Businger (1985) ArticleTitleThe synoptic climatology of polar low outbreaks. Tellus 37 419–432
S Businger JJ Baik (1991) ArticleTitleAn arctic hurricane over the Bering Sea. Mon Wea Rev 119 2293–2322
S Businger PV Hobbs (1987) ArticleTitleMesoscale and synoptic scale structure of two comma cloud systems over the Pacific Ocean. Mon Wea Rev 115 1909–1928
S Businger RJ Reed (1989) ArticleTitleCyclogenesis in cold air. Wea Forecast 2 110–133
S Businger B Walter (1988) ArticleTitleComma cloud development and associated rapid cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Alaska: A case study using aircraft and operational data. Mon Wea Rev 116 1103–1123
AM Carleton (1985) ArticleTitleSatellite climatological aspects of the “polar low” and “instant occlusion.” Tellus 37 433–450
H Charnock (1955) ArticleTitleWind stress on a water surface. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 81 639–640
JM Cram ML Kaplan CA Mattocks JW Zack (1991) ArticleTitleThe use and analysis of profiler winds to derive mesoscale height and temperature fields: Simulation and real-data experiments. Mon Wea Rev 119 1040–1056
CA Davis KA Emanuel (1988) ArticleTitleObservational evidence for the influence of surface heat fluxes on rapid maritime cyclogenesis. Mon Wea Rev 116 2649–2659
desJardins ML, Brill KF, Jacobs S, Schotz SS, Bruehl P (1992) GEMPAK5 Users Manual Version 5.1, NASA/GSFC, National Meteorological Center, and Unidata Program Center/UCAR, 267 pp
JD Doyle TT Warner (1993) ArticleTitleNonhydrostatic simulation of coastal mesobeta scale vortices and frontogenesis. Mon Wea Rev 121 3371–3392
KA Emanuel (1983a) ArticleTitleThe lagrangian parcel dynamics of moist-symmetric instability. J Atmos Sci 40 2368–2376
KA Emanuel (1983b) ArticleTitleOn assessing local conditional symmetric instability from atmospheric soundings. Mon Wea Rev 111 2016–2033
KA Emanuel R Rotunno (1989) ArticleTitlePolar lows as arctic hurricanes. Tellus 41A 1–17
BF Farrell (1984) ArticleTitleModal and nonmodal baroclinic waves. J Atmos Sci 41 668–673
R Gall (1976) ArticleTitleThe effects of released latent heat in growing baroclinic waves. J Atmos Sci 33 1686–1701
Gigi A (1989) The New York City snowstorm that never was. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment No 89-14, 4 pp
Graziano T (1995) Analysis and numerical modeling of convectively driven ageostrophic circulations and their role in the rapid cold-air cyclogenesis during ERICA IOP8. Ph.D. Thesis, MEAS, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 76795, 201 pp
RL Grossman AK Betts (1990) ArticleTitleAir-sea interaction during an extreme cold air outbreak from the eastern United States. Mon Wea Rev 118 IssueID2 324–342
JR Gyakum ES Barker (1988) ArticleTitleA case study of explosive subsynoptic-scale cyclogenesis. Mon Wea Rev 116 2225–2253
R Hadlock CW Krietzberg (1988) ArticleTitleThe experiment on rapidly intensifying cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) field study: Objectives and plans. Bull Am Meteor Soc 69 1309–1320
L Hasse V Wagner (1971) ArticleTitleOn the relationship between geostrophic and surface wind at sea. Mon Wea Rev 99 255–260
JR Holton ((1992)) NoChapterTitle An introduction to dynamic meteorology. Academic Press San Diego, CA 511
CY Huang S Raman (1991) ArticleTitleNumerical simulation of January 28 cold air outbreak during GALE. Part II: The mesoscale circulation and marine boundary layer. Bound Layer Meteor 56 51–81
CY Huang (1992) ArticleTitleA three dimensional numerical investigation of a Carolina coastal front and the Gulf Stream rainband. J Atmos Sci 49 560–584
Kaplan ML, Businger S (1994) A paradigm linking unbalanced ageostrophic adjustments to the explosive development phase in extratropical cyclones. In: Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones, Vol. III, Bergen, Norway, 388 pp
ML Kaplan VM Karyampudi (1992) ArticleTitleMeso-beta scale numerical simulations of terrain drag-induced along-stream circulations. Part I: Midtropospheric frontogenesis. Meteorol Atmos Phys 49 133–156
ML Kaplan JW Zack VC Wong JJ Tuccillo (1982) ArticleTitleInitial results from a Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System and comparisons with the AVE-SESAME I data set. Mon Wea Rev 110 1564–1590
SE Koch (1985) ArticleTitleAbility of a regional scale model to predict the genesis of intense mesoscale convective systems. Mon Wea Rev 113 1693–1713
SE Koch WC Skillman PJ Kocin PJ Wetzel KF Brill DA Keyser MC McCumber (1985) ArticleTitleSynoptic-scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2. numerical model. Mon Wea Rev 113 1714–1737
PJ Kocin LW Uccellini JW Zack ML Kaplan (1985) ArticleTitleA mesoscale numerical forecast of an intense convective snowburst along the East Coast. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 66 1412–1424
Kocin PJ, Uccellini LW (1990) Snowstorms along the northeastern Coast of the United States: 1955 to 1985. Meteor Monogr 44, 280 pp
Y-L Lin (1989) ArticleTitleInertial and frictional effects on stratified flow past an isolated heat source. J Atmos Sci 46 921–936
Y-L Lin (1990) ArticleTitleA theory of cyclogenesis forced by diabatic heating. Part II: A semigeostrophic approach. J Atmos Sci 47 1755–1777
JD Locatelli PV Hobbs JA Werth (1982) ArticleTitleMesoscale structures of vortices in polar air streams. Mon Wea Rev 110 1417–1433
JB McGinnigle MV Young MJ Bader (1988) ArticleTitleThe development of instant occlusions in the North Atlantic. Meteor Mag 117 325–341
JL Manobianco SE Koch VM Karyampudi AJ Negri (1994) ArticleTitleThe impact of assimilating satellite derived precipitation rates on numerical simulations of the ERICA IOP4 cyclone. Mon Wea Rev 122 341–365
MESO Inc, (1995) MASS Version 5.8 Reference Manual, MESO, Inc., Troy, New York, 120 pp
SL Mullen (1983) ArticleTitleExplosive cyclogenesis associated with cyclones in polar air streams. Mon Wea Rev 111 1537–1553
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (1985) NMC models and automated operations, Technical Publication Bulletin #355
PJ Neiman MA Shapiro (1993) ArticleTitleFrontal cyclone evolution and thermodynamic air sea interaction. Mon Wea Rev 121 2153–2176
PJ Neiman MA Shapiro LS Fedor (1993) ArticleTitleThe life cycle of an extratropical marine cyclone. Part II: Mesoscale structure and diagnostics. Mon Wea Rev 121 2177–2199
ØH kland H Schyberg (1987) ArticleTitleOn the contrasting influence of organized moist convection and surface heat flux on a barotropic vortex. Tellus 39A 385–389
S Petterssen SJ Smebye (1971) ArticleTitleOn the development of extra-tropical cyclones. Quart J Meteor Soc 97 457–482
E Rasmussen (1981) ArticleTitleAn investigation of a polar low with a spiral cloud structure. J Atmos Sci 38 1785–1792
E Rasmussen (1985) ArticleTitleA case study of polar low development over the Barents Sea. Tellus 37A 407–418
RJ Reed (1979) ArticleTitleCyclogenesis in polar airstreams. Mon Wea Rev 107 38–52
RJ Reed W Blier (1986) ArticleTitleA case study of comma cloud development in the Eastern Pacific. Mon Wea Rev 114 1681–1695
RJ Reed EF Danielsen (1959) ArticleTitleFronts in the vicinity of the tropopause. Arch Meteor Geophys Bioklim A11 1–17
PJ Roebber (1984) ArticleTitleStatistical analysis and updated climatology of explosive cyclones. Mon Wea Rev 112 1577–1589
HS Rosenblum F Sanders (1974) ArticleTitleMesoanalysis of a coastal snowstorm in New England. Mon Wea Rev 102 433–442
F Sanders LF Bosart (1985) ArticleTitleMesoscale structure in the megalopolitan snowstorm of 11–12 February 1983. Part I: Frontogenetical forcing and symmetric instability. J Atmos Sci 42 1050–1061
F Sanders JR Gyakum (1980) ArticleTitleSynoptic-dynamic climatology of the “bomb.” Mon Wea Rev 108 1589–1606
S SethuRaman AJ Riordan T Holt M Stunder J Hinman (1986) ArticleTitleObservations of the marine boundary layer thermal structure over the Gulf Stream during a cold air outbreak. J Clim Appl Meteor 25 14–21
MA Shapiro LS Fedor T Hampel (1987) ArticleTitleResearch aircraft measurements of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea. Tellus 37A 272–307
RB Stull ((1993)) NoChapterTitle An introduction to boundary layer meteorology. Kluwer Academic Publishers Norwell, MA 666
Taylor GI (1916) Conditions at the surface of a hot body exposed to the wind. Brit Adv Com Aero Rep Memor 272
LW Uccellini RA Petersen KF Brill PJ Kocin JJ Tuccillo (1987) ArticleTitleSynergistic interactions between an upper-level jet streak and diabatic processes that influence the development of a low-level jet and a secondary coastal cyclone. Mon Wea Rev 115 2227–2261
TT Warner MN Lakhatakia JD Doyle RA Pearson (1990) ArticleTitleMarine atmospheric boundary layer circulations forced by Gulf Stream sea-surface temperature gradients. Mon Wea Rev 118 309–323
RJ Wayland S Raman (1989) ArticleTitleMean and turbulent structure of a baroclinic marine boundary layer during the 28 January 1986 cold air outbreak (GALE 86). Bound Layer Meteor 48 227–254
JS Whitaker LW Uccellini KF Brill (1988) ArticleTitleA model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents’ Day cyclone. Mon Wea Rev 116 2337–2365
JW Zack ML Kaplan (1987) ArticleTitleNumerical simulations of the subsynoptic features associated with the AVE-SESAME I case study. Part I: The preconvective environment. Mon Wea Rev 115 2367–2394
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Current affiliation: NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910.
Current affiliation: NWS UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO 80307-3000.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Businger, S., Graziano, T., Kaplan, M. et al. Cold-air cyclogenesis along the Gulf-Stream front: investigation of diabatic impacts on cyclone development, frontal structure, and track. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 88, 65–90 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-003-0050-y
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-003-0050-y