Abstract
Roughly 35 % of the world’s 7.4 billion people are in the path of tropical cyclones, and coastal populations are expected to increase in the coming century. To understand the future damage that tropical cyclones could impose on an ever-growing coastal population, it is critically important to better understand the relationships between tropical cyclones and climate. Large-scale features of the climate system have been shown to affect tropical cyclone activity, for example, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown to influence tropical cyclone frequency in all oceanic basins on seasonal, yearly, and decadal timescales. However, the relatively short observational record (<160 years) is inadequate for identifying the climatic influences on tropical cyclones over centennial to millennial timescales. Paleotempestology, a relatively new science, helps to resolve this issue by extending the instrumental record back several thousands of years. Over the past two decades, the number of paleotempestology records has increased substantially for sites along the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, the South Pacific Ocean, and the Northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that they reveal extended alternating periods of either greater or lesser tropical cyclone activity over centennial and millennial timescales. In these studies, researchers have shown that large-scale climatic features such as ENSO, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are likely driving the alternating long-term behavior of tropical cyclones in global oceanic basins. This review paper will focus on recent paleotempestology studies from multiple global sites and endeavor to synthesize the results and interpretations.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bertran P, Bonnissent D, Imbert D et al (2004) Paléoclimat des Petites Antilles depuis 4000 ans BP: l’enregistrement de la lagune de Grand-Case à Saint-Martin. Compt Rendus Geosci 336:1501–1510
Besonen MR, Bradley RS, Mudelsee M et al (2008) A 1,000-year, annually-resolved record of hurricane activity from Boston, Massachusetts. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2008GL033950
Bianchette T (2007) Using Hurricane Ivan as a modern analog in paleotempestology: Lake sediment studies and environmental analysis in Gulf Shores, Alabama. Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Thomas Bianchette BS, Western Michigan University
Boldt KV, Lane P, Woodruff JD, Donnelly JP (2010) Calibrating a sedimentary record of overwash from Southeastern New England using modeled historic hurricane surges. Mar Geol 275:127–139. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2010.05.002
Bossak BH, Keihany SS, Welford MR, Gibney EJ (2014) Coastal Georgia is not immune: hurricane history, 1851–2012. Southeast Geogr 54:323–333
Brandon CM, Woodruff JD, Lane DP, Donnelly JP (2013) Tropical cyclone wind speed constraints from resultant storm surge deposition: a 2500 year reconstruction of hurricane activity from St. Marks, FL. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 14:2993–3008. doi:10.1002/ggge.20217
Denommee KC, Bentley SJ, Droxler AW (2014) Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Sci Rep 4:1–7. doi:10.1038/srep03876
Donnelly JP (2005) Evidence of past intense tropical cyclones from backbarrier salt pond sediments: a case study from Isla de Culebrita, Puerto Rico, USA. J Coast Res 42:201–210
Donnelly JP, Webb III T (2004) Backbarrier sedimentary records of intense hurricane landfalls in the northeastern United States. In: Murnane RJ, Liu KB (eds) Hurricanes and typhoons: past, present, and future. Columbia University Press, New York, p 58–95
Donnelly JP, Woodruff JD (2007) Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Nino and the West African monsoon. Nature 447:465–468. doi:10.1038/nature05834
Donnelly JP, Bryant SS, Butler J et al (2001a) 700 yr sedimentary record of intense hurricane landfalls in southern New England. Geol Soc Am Bull 113:714–727
Donnelly JP, Roll S, Wengren M et al (2001b) Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey. Geology 29:615–618
Donnelly JP, Butler J, Roll S et al (2004) A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey. Mar Geol 210:107–121. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005
Donnelly C, Hanson H, Larson M (2009) A numerical model of coastal overwash. Proc ICE Marit Eng 162:105–114. doi:10.1680/maen.2009.162.3.105
Donnelly JP, Hawkes AD, Lane P et al (2015) Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years. Earth’s Future 3:49–65. doi:10.1002/2014EF000274
Elsner JB, Kara AB (1999) Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: climate and society. Oxford University Press on Demand, New York
Elsner JB, Jagger TH, Liu K (2008) Comparison of hurricane return levels using historical and geological records. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:368–374. doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1
Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688
Ercolani C, Muller J, Collins J et al (2015) Intense Southwest Florida hurricane landfalls over the past 1000 years. Quat Sci Rev 126:17–25. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.008
Fan D, Liu K (2008) Perspectives on the linkage between typhoon activity and global warming from recent research advances in paleotempestology. Sci Bull 53:2907–2922. doi:10.1007/s11434-008-0341-2
Forsyth AJ, Nott J, Bateman MD (2010) Beach ridge plain evidence of a variable late-Holocene tropical cyclone climate, North Queensland, Australia. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 297:707–716. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.09.024
Frappier AB (2008) A stepwise screening system to select storm-sensitive stalagmites: taking a targeted approach to speleothem sampling methodology. Quatern Int 187:25–39. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.09.042
Gischler E, Shinn EA, Oschmann W et al (2008) A 1500-year holocene Caribbean climate archive from the Blue Hole, Lighthouse Reef, Belize. J Coast Res 24:1495–1505
Gray WM (1990) Strong association between West African rainfall and U.S. landfall of intense hurricanes. Science 249:1251–1256
Haig J, Nott J, Reichart GJ (2014) Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550–1,500 years. Nature 505:667–671. doi:10.1038/nature12882
Harley GL, Grissino-Mayer HD, Horn SP (2011) The Dendrochronology of Pinus elliottii in the lower Florida keys: chronology development and climate response. Tree-Ring Res 67:39–50. doi:10.3959/2010-3.1
Haug GH, Hughen KA, Sigman DM et al (2001) Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the holocene. Science 293:1304–1308
Hetzinger S, Pfeiffer M, Dullo W-C et al (2008) Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane activity. Geology 36:11–14. doi:10.1130/G24321A.1
Hippensteel SP (2011) Spatio-lateral continuity of hurricane deposits in back-barrier marshes. Geol Soc Am Bull 123:2277–2294. doi:10.1130/B30261.1
Horton BP, Rossi V, Hawkes AD (2009) The sedimentary record of the 2005 hurricane season from the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Quatern Int 195:15–30. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.03.004
Kagawa A, Sano M, Nakatsuka T et al (2015) An optimized method for stable isotope analysis of tree rings by extracting cellulose directly from cross-sectional laths. Chem Geol 393–394:16–25. doi:10.1016/j.chemgeo.2014.11.019
Kilbourne KH, Moyer RP, Quinn TM, Grottoli AG (2011) Testing coral-based tropical cyclone reconstructions: an example from Puerto Rico. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 307:90–97. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.04.027
Knapp PA, Hadley KS (2012) A 300-year history of Pacific Northwest windstorms inferred from tree rings. Glob Planet Chang 92–93:257–266. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.06.002
Korty RL, Camargo SJ, Galewsky J (2012) Variations in tropical cyclone genesis factors in simulations of the Holocene epoch. J Clim 25:8196–8211. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00033.1
Landsea CW, Nicholls N, Gray WM, Avila LA (1996) Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Geophys Res Lett 23:1697–1700
Landsea CW, Feuer S, Hagen A et al (2012) A reanalysis of the 1921–30 Atlantic hurricane database. J Clim 25:865–885. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00026.1
Lane P, Donnelly JP, Woodruff JD, Hawkes AD (2011) A decadally-resolved paleohurricane record archived in the late Holocene sediments of a Florida sinkhole. Mar Geol 287:14–30. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2011.07.001
Lewis DB, Finkelstein DB, Grissino-Mayer HD et al (2011) A multitree perspective of the tree ring tropical cyclone record from longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.), Big Thicket National Preserve, Texas, United States. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2009JG001194
Li Z-H, Labbé N, Driese SG, Grissino-Mayer HD (2011) Micro-scale analysis of tree-ring δ18O and δ13C on α-cellulose spline reveals high-resolution intra-annual climate variability and tropical cyclone activity. Chem Geol 284:138–147. doi:10.1016/j.chemgeo.2011.02.015
Lin N, Lane P, Emanuel KA et al (2014) Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:8606–8623. doi:10.1002/2014JD021584
Liu KB (2004) Paleotempestology: geographic solutions to hurricane hazard assessment and risk prediction. In: Janelle DG, Warf B, Hansen K (eds) WorldMinds: geographical perspectives on 100 problems: commemorating the 100th Anniversary of the Association of American Geographers 1904–2004. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 443–448
Liu KB, Fearn ML (1993) Lake sediment record of late Holocene hurricane activities from coastal Alabama. Geology 21:793–796
Liu KB, Fearn ML (2000) Holocene history of catastrophic hurricane landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico coast reconstructed from coastal lake and marsh sediments. In: Ning Z, Abdollahi KK (eds) Current stresses and potential vulnerabilities: implications of global climatic change for the Gulf of Mexico Region of the United States. Franklin Press, Baton Rouge, pp 38–47
Liu KB, Lu H, Shen C (2008) A 1200-year proxy record of hurricanes and fires from the Gulf of Mexico coast: testing the hypothesis of hurricane–fire interactions. Quatern Res 69:29–41. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2007.10.011
Liu KB, Li C, Bianchette TA et al (2011) Storm deposition in a coastal backbarrier lake in Louisiana caused by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. J Coast Res 64:1866
Malaize B, Bertran P, Carbonel P et al (2011) Hurricanes and climate in the Caribbean during the past 3700 years BP. The Holocene 21:911–924. doi:10.1177/0959683611400198
Mann ME, Woodruff JD, Donnelly JP, Zhang Z (2009) Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years. Nature 460:880–883. doi:10.1038/nature08219
McCloskey TA, Keller G (2009) 5000 year sedimentary record of hurricane strikes on the central coast of Belize. Quatern Int 195:53–68. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.03.003
McCloskey TA, Knowles JT (2009) Migration of the tropical cyclone zone throughout the holocene. In: Elsner BJ, Jagger HT (eds) Hurricanes and climate change. Springer US, Boston, pp 169–187
McCloskey TA, Liu K (2012) A 7000 year record of paleohurricane activity from a coastal wetland in Belize. The Holocene 1–14. doi: 10.1177/0959683612460782
McCloskey TA, Bianchette TA, Liu KB (2013) Track patterns of landfalling and coastal tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the potential effect of global warming. Am J Clim Chang 2:12–22. doi:10.4236/ajcc.2013.23A002
Morton RA, Paine JG, Blum MD (2000) Responses of stable bay-margin and barrier-island systems to Holocene sea-level highstands, western Gulf of Mexico. J Sediment Res 70:478–490. doi:10.1306/2DC40921-0E47-11D7-8643000102C1865D
Moy CM, Seltzer GO, Rodbell DT, Anderson DM (2002) Variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch. Nature 420:162–165. doi:10.1038/nature01194
Naquin JD, Liu K, McCloskey TA, Bianchette TA (2014) Storm deposition induced by hurricanes in a rapidly subsiding coastal zone. J Coast Res 308–313. doi: 10.2112/SI70-052.1
Nott J (2004) Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment. Environ Int 30:433–447. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010
Nott J (2010) A theory (involving tropical cyclones) on the formation of coarse-grained sand beach ridges in NE Australia. Geol Soc Lond, Spec Publ 346:7–22. doi:10.1144/SP346.2
Nott J (2011a) A 6000 year tropical cyclone record from Western Australia. Quatern Sci Rev 30:713–722. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.12.004
Nott J (2011b) Tropical cyclones, global climate change and the role of Quaternary studies. J Quatern Sci 26:468–473. doi:10.1002/jqs.1524
Nott J, Forsyth A (2012) Punctuated global tropical cyclone activity over the past 5,000 years. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2012GL052236
Nott J, Jagger T (2013) Deriving robust return periods for tropical cyclone inundations from sediments. Geophys Res Lett 40:370–373. doi:10.1029/2012GL054455
Nott J, Smithers S, Walsh K, Rhodes E (2009) Sand beach ridges record 6000 year history of extreme tropical cyclone activity in northeastern Australia. Quatern Sci Rev 28:1511–1520. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.014
Otvos EG (1995) Multiple pliocene-quaternary marine highstands, northeast Gulf Coastal plain: fallacies and facts. J Coast Res 11:984–1002
Otvos EG (2000) Beach ridges—definitions and significance. Geomorphology 32:83–108. doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00075-6
Otvos EG (2011) Hurricane signatures and landforms—toward improved interpretations and global storm climate chronology. Sediment Geol 239:10–22. doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2011.04.014
Rhodes EG, Polach HA, Thom BG, Wilson SR (1980) Age structure of Holocene coastal sediments; Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. Radiocarbon 22:718–727
Scileppi E, Donnelly JP (2007) Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York. Geochem Geophys Geosyst. doi:10.1029/2006GC001463
Tanner WF (1995) Origin of beach ridges and swales. Mar Geol 129:149–161
Toomey MR, Curry WB, Donnelly JP, van Hengstum PJ (2013a) Reconstructing 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using deep-sea sediment cores from the western Great Bahama Bank. Paleoceanography 28:31–41. doi:10.1002/palo.20012
Toomey MR, Donnelly JP, Woodruff JD (2013b) Reconstructing mid-late Holocene cyclone variability in the Central Pacific using sedimentary records from Tahaa, French Polynesia. Quatern Sci Rev 77:181–189. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.07.019
Trouet V, Harley GL, Domínguez-Delmás M (2016) Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113:3169–3174. doi:10.1073/pnas.1519566113
van Hengstum PJ, Scott DB (2011) Ecology of foraminifera and habitat variability in an underwater cave: distinguishing anchialine versus submarine cave environments. J Foram Res 41:201–229. doi:10.2113/gsjfr.41.3.201
van Hengstum PJ, Donnelly JP, Toomey MR et al (2014) Heightened hurricane activity on the Little Bahama Bank from 1350 to 1650 AD. Cont Shelf Res 86:103–115. doi:10.1016/j.csr.2013.04.032
van Hengstum PJ, Donnelly JP, Kingston AW et al (2015a) Low-frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked to cooling events in the North Atlantic region, West Sussex. Paleoceanography, 30:52–76. doi:10.1002/2014PA002662
van Hengstum PJ, Richards DA, Onac BP, Dorale JA (2015b) Coastal caves and sinkholes. In: Shennan I, Long AJ, Horton BP (eds) Handbook of sea-level research. Wiley, pp 83–103
van Hengstum PJ, Donnelly JP, Fall PL et al (2016) The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin. Sci Rep 6:21728. doi:10.1038/srep21728
Wallace DJ, Woodruff JD, Anderson JB, Donnelly JP (2014) Palaeohurricane reconstructions from sedimentary archives along the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western North Atlantic Ocean margins. Geol Soc Lond, Spec Publ 388:481–501. doi:10.1144/SP388.12
Welford MR, Bossak BH, Gibney EJ, et al (2017) Archival evidence of secular changes in Georgia hurricanes: 1750–2012. In: Collins JC, Walsh K (eds) Hurricanes and climate change. Springer
Williams HFL (2009) Stratigraphy, sedimentology, and microfossil content of Hurricane Rita storm surge deposits in southwest Louisiana. J Coast Res 25:1041–1051. doi:10.2112/08-1038.1
Williams HFL (2010) Storm surge deposition by Hurricane Ike on the Mcfaddin National Wildlife Refuge, Texas: implications for paleotempestology studies. J Foram Res 40:210–219. doi:10.2113/gsjfr.40.3.210
Williams HFL (2011a) Stratigraphic record of hurricanes Audrey, Rita and Ike in the Chenier plain of southwest Louisiana. J Coast Res Spec Issue 64:1921–1926
Williams HFL (2011b) Shell bed tempestites in the Chenier Plain of Louisiana: late holocene example and modern analogue. J Quatern Sci 26:199–206. doi:10.1002/jqs.1444
Williams HFL (2012) Magnitude of Hurricane Ike storm surge sedimentation: implications for coastal marsh aggradation. Earth Surf Process Landf 37:901–906. doi:10.1002/esp.3252
Williams HFL (2013) 600-year sedimentary archive of hurricane strikes in a prograding beach ridge plain, southwestern Louisiana. Mar Geol 336:170–183. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2012.12.005
Williams HFL, Flanagan WM (2009) Contribution of Hurricane Rita storm surge deposition to long-term sedimentation in Louisiana coastal Woodlands and marshes. J Coast Res Spec Issue 56:1671–1675
Williams HFL, Choowong M, Phantuwongraj S et al (2016) Geologic records of holocene typhoon strikes on the Gulf of Thailand coast. Mar Geol 372:66–78. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2015.12.014
Woodruff JD, Donnelly JP, Mohrig D, Geyer WR (2008) Reconstructing relative flooding intensities responsible for hurricane-induced deposits from Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico. Geology 36:391–394. doi:10.1130/G24731A.1
Woodruff JD, Donnelly JP, Okusu A (2009) Exploring typhoon variability over the mid-to-late Holocene: evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki, Japan. Quatern Sci Rev 28:1774–1785. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.005
Woodruff JD, Kanamaru K, Kundu S, Cook TL (2015) Depositional evidence for the Kamikaze typhoons and links to changes in typhoon climatology. Geology 43:91–94. doi:10.1130/G36209.1
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Muller, J., Collins, J.M., Gibson, S., Paxton, L. (2017). Recent Advances in the Emerging Field of Paleotempestology. In: Collins, J., Walsh, K. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47594-3_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47594-3_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-47592-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-47594-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)