Arrhenius and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Svante August Arrhenius was the first to calculate global climate sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. He was also the first to calculate the anthropogenic rate of CO₂ buildup in the modern atmosphere. There is apparently an inconsistency, however, between the references to these estimates [e.g., Uppenbrink, 1996] and the real numbers Arrhenius derived in his later works.

The citations of Arrhenius' calculations are usually based on the work published in 1896 [Arrhenius, 1896]. In this paper Arrhenius reported that CO₂ doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C. In the same ear, he estimated that it would take about 3000 y ears for mankind to double the atmospheric concentration through the burning of fossil fuels [Arrhenius, 1896]. However, the 1896 paper was not his last publication on the problem of global warming.