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Articles

Donald Trump and right-wing populists in comparative perspective

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Pages 190-207 | Published online: 14 Mar 2018
 

ABSTRACT

We compare sources of Donald Trump’s appeal in the 2016 US presidential campaign to the appeal of right-populists from Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. We compare the appeal of right-populist to center-right candidates in each case (as measured with feeling thermometers) and test hypotheses about how the appeal of right-populists differs from that of center-right candidates. Standard predictors of affect toward right-of-center candidates were generally less relevant as a basis of affect toward right-populist candidates. This comparative perspective demonstrates that Trump’s appeal was based on racial resentment, anti-immigration sentiments and anxiety. Affect toward Trump and other right-populists from these Anglo-democracies fits patterns previously observed in Europe, a pattern that appears to be world-wide.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Todd Donovan is professor of political science at Western Washington University. He conducts research on representation, elections, and public opinion.

David Redlawsk is the James R. Soles Professor of political science at the University of Delaware and former director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

Notes

1. Some right-populist parties (e.g. the FN) support expanded social services – as long as those who are deemed undeserving are excluded from access.

2. There is literature that categorizes parties as radical right-wing populist that have these traits, as well as authoritarianism. However, this “radical” category can be so broad as to include UKIP and the Dutch LPF in the same class as the BNP and German Republicans (e.g. Akkerman, De Lange, and Rooduijn Citation2016, 5). We prefer the term right-wing populist for the cases we examine and leave it to others to determine whether or not these are radical.

3. Additional Anglo cases where right-populists of various types had some electoral success could include the Social Credit Party of Canada under Solon Earl Low in the 1950s; Rob Muldoon’s National Party candidacy in New Zealand in 1975; Ross Perot in the 1992 US election; Pat Buchanan’s Reform Party run in the US in 2000; Pauline Hanson’s modest revival of One Nation in Australia in 2016. However, Hanson (2016) won less than 5%, Buchanan won less than 0.5% and the other cases can be seen as less overtly anti-immigrant.

4. These proxies are imperfect, particularly in the New Zealand case. We propose the New Zealand item reflects anxiety over the need to protect traditional social order against change, but this could also reflect authoritarianism.

5. Our ability to test this is limited because there was no race/ethnicity item on the AES, and Peter’s Maori heritage likely affected his appeal among non-European New Zealanders. “White” in Canada reflects English speakers who identify as English, Irish or Scottish descent.

6. The Pilot Study was conducted in late January 2016, an appropriate time for comparisons across Republican candidates. Between August 2015 and January 2016, six nationally broadcast Republican debates were conducted (with record-setting viewership) featuring Bush, Rubio, Trump and other candidates.

7. The range is 1–7 in the US. The CES did not ask about ideological self-placement or religious attendance.

8. The NZES item may tap sentiments of relations between European New Zealanders and Maori, rather than sentiments about Asian immigrants. Peters is Maori.

9. Former Reform MP Stephan Harper served as Conservative Prime Minster from 2006 to 2015.

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