Review
Mammalian biogeography and the Ebola virus in Africa
Jesús Olivero,
Julia E. Fa,
Raimundo Real,
Miguel Ángel Farfán,
Ana Luz Márquez,
J. Mario Vargas,
J. Paul Gonzalez,
Andrew A. Cunningham,
Robert Nasi,
Jesús Olivero
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Julia E. Fa
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M1 5GD UK
Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR Headquarters, Bogor, 16115 Indonesia
Correspondence author.Search for more papers by this authorRaimundo Real
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorMiguel Ángel Farfán
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorAna Luz Márquez
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJ. Mario Vargas
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJ. Paul Gonzalez
Metabiota, Inc., 8757 Georgia Ave. Suite 420, Silver Spring, MD, 20910 USA
Search for more papers by this authorAndrew A. Cunningham
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY UK
Search for more papers by this authorRobert Nasi
Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR Headquarters, Bogor, 16115 Indonesia
Search for more papers by this author
Jesús Olivero,
Julia E. Fa,
Raimundo Real,
Miguel Ángel Farfán,
Ana Luz Márquez,
J. Mario Vargas,
J. Paul Gonzalez,
Andrew A. Cunningham,
Robert Nasi,
Jesús Olivero
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Julia E. Fa
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M1 5GD UK
Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR Headquarters, Bogor, 16115 Indonesia
Correspondence author.Search for more papers by this authorRaimundo Real
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorMiguel Ángel Farfán
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorAna Luz Márquez
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJ. Mario Vargas
Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJ. Paul Gonzalez
Metabiota, Inc., 8757 Georgia Ave. Suite 420, Silver Spring, MD, 20910 USA
Search for more papers by this authorAndrew A. Cunningham
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY UK
Search for more papers by this authorRobert Nasi
Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR Headquarters, Bogor, 16115 Indonesia
Search for more papers by this author
Editor: KH/DR
Abstract
- Ebola virus is responsible for the fatal Ebola virus disease (EVD).
- Identifying the distribution area of the Ebola virus is crucial for understanding the risk factors conditioning the emergence of new EVD cases. Existing distribution models have underrepresented the potential contribution that reservoir species and vulnerable species make in sustaining the presence of the virus.
- In this paper, we map favourable areas for Ebola virus in Africa according to environmental and zoogeographical descriptors, independent of human-to-human transmissions. We combine two different biogeographical approaches: analysis of mammalian distribution types (chorotypes), and distribution modelling of the Ebola virus.
- We first obtain a model defining the distribution of environmentally favourable areas for the presence of Ebola virus. Based on a review of mammal taxa affected by or suspected of exposure to the Ebola virus, we model favourable areas again, this time according to mammalian chorotypes. We then build a combined model in which both the environment and mammalian distributions explain the favourable areas for Ebola virus in the wild.
- We demonstrate that mammalian biogeography contributes to explaining the distribution of Ebola virus in Africa, although vegetation may also underscore clear limits to the presence of the virus. Our model suggests that the Ebola virus may be even more widespread than previously suspected, given that additional favourable areas are found throughout the coastal areas of West and Central Africa, stretching from Cameroon to Guinea, and extend further East into the East African Lakes region.
- Our findings show that the most favourable area for the Ebola virus is significantly associated with the presence of the virus in non-human mammals. Core areas are surrounded by regions of intermediate favourability, in which human infections of unknown source were found. The difference in association between humans and other mammals and the virus may offer further insights on how EVD can spread.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| mam12074-sup-0001-AppendixS1-S4.docxWord document, 418.7 KB | Appendix S1. Referenced locations of Ebola virus presence in wildlife. Appendix S2. Predictor-variable description and sources. Appendix S3. List and features of the 216 mammal species considered in this study. Appendix S4. Contribution of environment and zoogeography to the Ebola virus distribution model based on combination of explanatory factors. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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