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First published September 2000

Comparative Democratization: Big and Bounded Generalizations

Abstract

Comparative studies of democratization have produced two types of generalizations: those having nearly universal application and those applying to a range of countries within a region. In the first category are such arguments as the role of high levels of economic development in guaranteeing democratic sustainability, the centrality of political elites in establishing and terminating democracy, and deficits in rule of law and state capacity as the primary challenge to the quality and survival of new democracies. In the second category are contrasts between recent democratization in post-Socialist Europe versus Latin America and southern Europe—for example, in the relationship between democratization and economic reform and in the costs and benefits for democratic consolidation of breaking quickly versus slowly with the authoritarian past. The two sets of conclusions have important methodological implications for how comparativists understand generalizability and the emphasis placed on historical versus proximate causation.

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1.
1. No survey of comparative democratization, of course, can do justice to such a large field of study. Thus, in my comments I will privilege certain bodies of work, while slighting others. In practice, this means concentrating far more on elites, governmental institutions, and economics than on, for example, mass publics, political parties, and political culture (for these issues, see Dalton, 2000 [this issue] and Kitschelt, 2000 [this issue]). The geographical and temporal reach of this review will also be limited. I will deal primarily with the new democracies of Latin America, southern Europe, and the post-Socialist region and with the interwar democratic experiments in Europe. Less attention will be devoted to, for example, the new democracies of Asia and Africa (and older ones, such as India) and to the rise of the first democracies in northwest Europe.
2.
2. The Hungarian case would appear at first glance to be an exception, given the victory of opposition forces in the March 1990 election and the comparatively slow pace of economic reform from 1990 to 1994. However, Hungary merely reinforces the point that this is an argument of degrees not dichotomies. In particular, Hungary lacked a popular front; the opposition was divided into several parties; and the coalition government that came to power enjoyed a thin seat majority, not overwhelming public support. Thus, although the opposition won and the excommunist party suffered a significant defeat, the size of the political mandate was limited and that in turn shaped the processes of economic reform.

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