A Decade Later, the World Had Changed, the Cleavage Structure Remained: Israel 1996—2006
Abstract
The defining challenge for Israel since 1967 has been the future of the territories captured in the Six Day War and the population living in them. With the stalemate festering and the salience of the conflict very high, the conflict with the Palestinians has become the major cleavage dimension in Israeli politics. Building on the multidimensional conceptualization of cleavage, we argue that despite the occurrence of many, dramatic, changes, the cleavage structure has not changed in the past decade, and the 1977 realignment is still in place. The primary cleavage is a full and consistent interlocking cleavage. Its potency, and the quality that permits it to achieve this overarching position, is associated with its expression of underlying collective identity dilemmas, which combine external and internal dimensions. Collective identity concerns, more readily than others, produce full cleavages and are likely to dominate and endure, overriding other issues. The establishment, positioning and success of Kadima in the 2006 elections are explicated within this framework.
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1.
1 Our argument would be further strengthened were we to consider the total population, including the Arab minority, making up 13 percent of the electorate in 2006 (http://www.cbs.gov.il/hodaot2006n/24_06_061b.doc). The distinction between `Arab' and `Jewish' political parties is staunch, voting behaviour of Israeli Arabs is distinct and identity considerations paramount.
2.
2 The Israel National Election Study (INES) in 2006 was conducted between 28 February and 23 March 2006. The sample was representative of the Israeli electorate, with N = 1,919 respondents (1,630 Jews, 289 Arabs). In 1996, the survey was carried out between 1 and 27 May, among a representative sample of the electorate, excluding Kibbutzim and localities beyond the 1967 Green Line (N = 1,168 Jews, 503 Arabs). Only Jewish respondents are analysed here.
3.
3 For the wording of the questions, see Shamir and Arian (1999a). The two scales were constructed following an exploratory factor analysis, which clearly established the two dimensions as well as their strong interrelationship (Shamir and Arian, 1999b, Table 2.1). The two value priority indicators (Greater Israel priority and democracy priority) are based on a ranking question in which respondents were asked to rank four values from most to least important (Israel with a Jewish majority, Greater Israel, a democratic state and peace) (ibid., p. 48). Greater Israel priority loaded on the external dimension factor, democracy priority loaded on the internal dimension factor and the Jewish majority and peace priorities loaded on a third factor, unrelated to these two divisive identity factors, which we interpreted as a consensus valence dimension (ibid., pp. 51—2).
4.
4 In 1996, the interviews were conducted face to face and in Hebrew (among Jews). In 2006, the survey was by telephone and the interviews were conducted among Jews in Hebrew and Russian.
5.
5 Shalev and Kis, who studied the role of class in electoral behaviour and demonstrated class effects, commented that in Israel `the most obvious correlates of these class-voting linkages are non-economic: disputed issues of collective identity, the role of religion in personal and national life, and management of the peace process and future borders' (2002: 91). In other words, while `struggles over identity and borders are by no means detached from class interests' (ibid.), class effects are mediated by them and do not by themselves directly determine electoral behaviour.
6.
6 For details, see Shamir et al. (2008).
7.
7 These items were measured in the first panel wave in July 2005.
8.
8 For detailed analysis, see Shamir et al. (2008).
9.
9 Respondents' positions on territorial compromise, government involvement in the economy and state—religion relations are varied, while setting all other variables at their means. Nominal variables are set such that the hypothetical respondent is a female, and not an immigrant from the former Soviet Union.
10.
10 This was implicit, with Sharon at its head; explicit, with Olmert (see Shamir et al., 2007).
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