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First published July 2005

Media Use and its Impacts on Crime Perception, Sentencing Attitudes and Crime Policy

Christian Pfeiffer, Michael Windzio, and Matthias KleimannView all authors and affiliations
Volume 2, Issue 3
https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370805054099

Abstract

The German statistics of police-recorded crime show a decline in total offences over the 10 years up to 2003. In contrast to that trend, survey-based evidence shows that the German public believes or assumes, on balance, that crime has increased. Moreover, the proportion of people who are in favour of tougher sentencing has increased, and multivariate analyses show that the belief that crime is rising is the factor most strongly associated with a preference for stiffer penalties. Further analysis of survey data shows that the pattern of television viewing is associated with the belief that crime is rising. This pattern of results suggests that television broadcasts that include fictional or factual treatment of crime stimulate this biased perception of reality. The article discusses the significance of these findings for national and international developments in crime policy.

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1.
1 A topical example in Germany is the debate about increasing juvenile violence and the proposals adopted by a majority in the Bundesrat (upper house of parliament) to toughen the criminal law response to crimes by 14 to 21-year-old offenders; see Bundesrats-Drucksache I5/1472 (Bundesrat bill based on motion 2138/04 brought by the states of Saxony, Bavaria, Hessen, Lower Saxony and Thuringia).
2.
2 From a recent example in Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung 26 May 2004, 4.
3.
3 See the interview given on this question by Professor Winfried Hassemer, Vice President of the German Federal Constitutional Court, in Zeitschrift für Rechtspolitik (2004: 93-4). He stressed that one purpose of sentencing is to ‘accommodate popular sentencing demands’ and, further, that ‘the state does well to heed’ such demands. He qualified this sweeping statement later on, however: ‘Judges should not mirror public opinion, of course, but they must be mindful of it’. Dreher (1967: 42 ff.) justified such a stance as follows: ‘Judges, bound up in the spirit of the times, are meant to prevent mob rule and lynch justice by channelling and taming public sentencing demands’; see also Streng (2002: 14).
4.
4 See German Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt), Police Crime Statistics 2004.
5.
5 See Pfeiffer et al. (2004: 24 ff.).
6.
6 Crimes under Section 92 of the Aliens Act (AuslG) or under the Asylum Procedures Act (AsylVfG) are not included in these percentages because they are almost all committed by non-Germans.
7.
7 Considering the amount of PR about it from the German Interior Ministry and police, it is safe to assume that many potential offenders will be aware of the increased success rate. The success rate thus becomes a considerable deterrent; see Pfeiffer (1990: 88 ff.) for a discussion with numerous references to empirical studies on this point in the USA and European countries.
8.
8 For an earlier article by Pfeiffer published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, we used the overall mean values; it was only upon checking the extremes at a later date that we discovered these resulted in exaggerated values for the means (Pfeiffer 2004).
9.
9 See Reuband (1998: 144).
10.
10 See Pfeiffer et al. (2004: 6 ff.).
11.
11 See Erster Periodischer Sicherheitsbericht der Bundesregierung (2001: 53)
12.
12 The air time (in hours per day) for fictional programmes featuring crime changed as follows: 1985 = 11.8 h, 1995 = 149.2 h and 2003 = 100.7 h; for non-fiction programmes: 1985 = 3.6 h, 1995 = 8.5 h and 2003 = 58.3 h.
13.
13 For an overview see Gerhard (1999: 340-4) and Krüger and Zapf-Schramm (2003).
14.
14 Two studies for 1988 (Derwein 1995) and 1996 (Scharf et al. 1999: 445-62) showed, however, that violent crime was highly over-represented in reporting on crime in the years in question.
15.
15 To investigate the effect of media-use patterns on crime trend perceptions (step 1) and of crime trend perceptions on sentencing attitudes (step 2), ordinal logistic regressions are estimated in the empirical part of the study. In these regression models, the probability that dependent variable y falls within category m of the ordinal scale is found by subtracting the probability of exceeding the empirically estimated threshold [.tau]m from the probability of attaining the next lower threshold [.tau]m-1, where the distance between the thresholds is permitted to vary. Formally, the model is of the form
Pr(yi = m[.arrowvertex] xi) = [.Lambda]([.tau]m - xi[.beta]) - [.Lambda]([.tau]m-1 - xi[.beta], where [.Lambda]([.epsilon]) = exp([.epsilon])/1 + exp([.epsilon])
is the logistic error distribution (Long 1997: 121), x a vector of explanatory variables and [.beta] a vector of regression coefficients. Unlike a multinomial logistic regression, however, the ordinal models are based on the assumption of proportional odds, which means the effects of the explanatory variables for threshold [.tau]m must be as close as possible to identical with the effects for threshold [.tau]m+1. A suitable test (Long 1997: 143) is used to ensure that this assumption is met.
16.
16 The possible answers were ‘(almost) every day’, ‘several times a week’, ‘once a week’, ‘several times a month’, ‘once a month or less frequently’ and ‘never’.
17.
17 Incorporating the use of print media in the analysis makes for a poorer factor solution overall. Only the reading of local newspapers would weight one factor together with the ARD and ZDF public service television news programmes, while reading the Bild newspaper and other tabloid magazines does not show a sufficient weighting on any factor. Because the recoding necessitated by including print media would also have meant a loss of information, only television programmes were incorporated in the analysis.
18.
18 Strictly speaking, the ‘private television’ and ‘hours of television per week’ ought to be varied simultaneously in the forecast to make the differences even more pronounced.
19.
19 Ranging from 1 for ‘not true at all’ to 6 for ‘very true’. Strictly speaking this is an ordinally scaled variable. The Mann/Whitney U-test that is appropriate for this scale level gives a highly significant z value of 13.57 for the difference. Based on three items for sentencing attitude contained in both the 1992 and the 2003 survey it is possible to form a 16-rank total index to accommodate the construct of sentencing attitude. The higher the index, the more punitive the attitude. Once again, both the means and the middle ranks of the index differ very significantly (10.33 for 1992 versus 11.83 for 2003).
20.
20 The official preamble to the first criminal law reform act of 1969 (Bundestags-Drucksache V/4094), for example, still draws upon crime policy ideas culled from practical experience in law enforcement, and consequently argues along the lines of treatment and desired treatment outcomes. According to Maelicke (1999: 73) there was thus broad consensus in the 1970s between academics, enforcement practitioners and policymakers. Since the early 1990s, however, there has been a power shift within the crime policy arena: ‘Policymakers are increasingly reluctant to seek advice from industry with its preference for restraint and caution. They are driven by the media... constrained by the tightening of laws and by the room for manoeuvre available to the courts, and bring their influence to bear on practitioners with the aim of bringing about a shift in priorities: Safety is gaining in importance and maybe even priority relative to treatment and reintegration’ (1999: 74).
21.
21 Chancellor Schröder provided a typical example in a 2001 interview for Bild am Sonntag, with his suggestion of what do with sex offenders: ‘Lock them away - for good!’ (Bild am Sonntag, 8/7/2001).
22.
22 Garland reported a similar loss in influence as regards practitioners and researchers in the UK and the USA, and that crime policy initiatives there are increasingly driven by public opinion and by calls for tougher statutory penalties from the mass media in response to spectacular individual crimes (2001: 13, 151 ff.).
23.
23 Where the sentencing statistics present sentence durations in class intervals, we arrived at the averages by adding 0.33 times the interval to the lower value for each class. Sentences from two to under three years, for example, were assumed to average 2.33. The factor of 0.33 is based on an analysis of cases from 1991 to 1997; see Schott et al. (2004). It is conceivable that there has been an increase here in line with the generally observed trend in sentencing. In the absence of new data, however, we opted to keep the assumption that the average corresponded to the lower one-third point for the entire study period rather than changing to the mid-point.
24.
24 These findings cannot be reliably applied to the whole of Germany. They do, however, demonstrate that the widespread assumption of an increase in the brutality as well as the frequency of crimes involving bodily harm should be met with caution. In view of the fact that penalties for actual and grievous bodily harm were increased in 1998, it appears more likely that the observed rise in the number of years’ prison per 100 tried suspects is a result of tougher sentencing.
25.
25 This is the average value for the last 10 years based on calculations for the state of Lower Saxony.
26.
26 Based on these data, comparing actual sentencing in 1990 with sentencing over the twelve ensuing years shows an increase totalling some 154,000 years’ extra prison as a result of the courts raising the frequency and duration of prison sentences rather than staying with 1990 sentencing levels. These hypothetical figures are subject to major uncertainties, however. For example, our underlying method of calculation, under which class interval averages in sentencing statistics are assumed to be at the lower one-third point rather than the mid-point of each class, may underestimate the extent of the increase in sentencing. Conversely, it is conceivable that there has been a change in the average severity of offences - something that is ultimately only verifiable from case analysis. Lacking such specific information on offence severity, we will refrain from repeating for all crimes the hypothetical cost calculation presented for actual and grievous bodily harm.
27.
27 We intentionally used the data for one year later when comparing penal statistics. The average prison sentence of 1.1 to 1.5 years means there is a corresponding delay before any change in sentencing practices can affect the prison population figures.
28.
28 The reduction from 237,867 to 188,962 foreign subjects charged relates to former West Germany excluding the states of Hessen and Saarland, for which separate sentencing statistics for sentenced non-German offenders are not available.
29.
29 See p. 6 onwards of the Home Office Annual Report (2004), which notes that the change in the trend coincided with the Bulger murder that shook the nation in 1993, following which a series of legislative initiatives led to a lasting increase in penalties.
30.
30 According to Rennison and Rand, the victimization rate for violent crime fell by 54.6 in the USA from 1993 to 2002, and the victimization rate for crimes against property fell by 50.1 percent over the same period. Crimes against property have in fact declined by some 345 percent since 1975 (Rennison and Rand 2002).

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Published In

Volume 2, Issue 3
Pages: 259 - 285
Article first published: July 2005
Issue published: July 2005

Keywords

  1. Crime Policy
  2. Media
  3. Public Perceptions of Crime

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Christian Pfeiffer
Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, [email protected]
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Michael Windzio
Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, [email protected]
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Matthias Kleimann
Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, [email protected]
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