Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

R S Nerem; B D Beckley; J T Fasullo; B D Hamlington; D Masters; G T Mitchum

doi:10.1073/pnas.1717312115

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Feb 27;115(9):2022-2025. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115. Epub 2018 Feb 12.

Authors

R S Nerem¹, B D Beckley², J T Fasullo³, B D Hamlington⁴, D Masters⁵, G T Mitchum⁶

Affiliations

¹ Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; nerem@colorado.edu.
² Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771.
³ National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305.
⁴ Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529.
⁵ Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
⁶ College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701.

Abstract

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y² Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Keywords: acceleration; climate change; satellite altimetry; sea level.

Publication types

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.