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TIMESTAMPS

        El Niño (EN) is the increase in the surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. EN results from changes in the pattern and direction of winds and ocean currents in the region, which have potentially catastrophic effects. There are also changes in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific Basin between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti called the Southern Oscillation (SO). The SO is the seesaw "in atmospheric mass involving exchanges of air between eastern and western hemispheres . . . with centers of action located over Indonesia and the tropical Southern Pacific Ocean" (Trenberth 1991, 13-14). Thus, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled air and ocean phenomenon with global weather implications. It is believed that ENSO is often associated with devastating droughts in Northeast Brazil, Australia, parts of Africa, the failure of the Indian monsoons, hurricanes along the east coast of North America, and so forth (Glantz 1993, 4).

        Many researchers now believe that the occurrence of various droughts in Africa, especially in Southern Africa and the Horn, are caused by physical processes related to the occurrence of ENSO events thousands of miles away. If valid and reliable information about the linkages between these occurrences becomes available, it could help to forecast Sub-Saharan African droughts. Scientists believe that ENSO information can be useful for developing regional drought early warning systems. (Figure 1).

ENSO and Ethiopian Droughts

        There have been notable droughts in Ethiopia throughout human history (Haile 1988; Degefu 1987; Pankhurst 1966; Nicholls 1993; Webb and Braun 1994). Previous droughts and the frequency of rainfall deviation from the average suggest that droughts occur every 3-5 and 6-8 years in northern Ethiopia and every 8-10 years for the whole country (Haile 1988, 90).

        Haile (1988, 85) believes that Ethiopian drought is caused by ENSO, along with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans combined with anthropogenic activities. ENSO events and SST anomalies affect rainfall distribution in Ethiopia by displacing and weakening the rain-producing air masses (1988, 92).

        There is a remarkable correspondence between annual rainfall in Ethiopia and ENSO events (Haile 1988). A statistical analysis by Attia and Abulhoda (1992) shows that "ENSO episodes are negatively teleconnected with the floods of the Blue Nile and Atbara" rivers that originate in Ethiopia. Eltahir (1996) also concluded that ENSO events affect flows of the Nile River (indicating drought in highland Ethiopia, which is a source of 85 percent of Nile water) and that knowledge of these events could be used to improve the predictability of its annual flow. Empirical data indicate an association between ENSO events and droughts in Ethiopia. Thus, an ENSO-based early warning system, used effectively by policymakers, could help to reduce the societal impacts of drought in Ethiopia.

        According to Nicholls (1993, 1), 1888 was a major ENSO year that damaged the economies of Brazil and Australia, as well as Ethiopia. Drought struck Ethiopia in 1888, leading to the historic deadly famine of 1888/89. About one-third of the population died because of famine, and ninety percent of the animals perished due to rinderpest infestation and the drought (Webb and Braun 1994, 20). In 1957/58 drought and locust invasion led to famine in Tigray. The 1972/73 drought led to the Wollo famine, during which about 200,000 people died. In all these cases, there was little early warning.

        When past ENSO events are compared with drought and famine periods in Ethiopia, they show a remarkable association. Some drought years have coincided with EN events, while others have followed it.

 Sources: Quinn and Neal (1987, 14451); Degefu (1987, 30-31);
*Nicholls 1993; Webb and Braun; **Ayalew 1996.

        The 1982-83 ENSO "was the most extreme event in at least a century," with equatorial SSTs in the Pacific Ocean increased by an average of 2 degrees Celsius and exceeding 6 degrees Celsius on the coast of Peru (Cane 1993, 43). In Ethiopia, the 1983-84 drought took the lives of an estimated one million people, destroyed crops, contributed to the death of animals, and threatened the lives of millions of people with starvation. Famine was exacerbated, if not caused, by war and failed government policies, but drought was the main catalyst to crop failure. The famine prompted unprecedented (but delayed) humanitarian intervention, in spite of Ethiopia's Marxist government of Mengistu Haile-Mariam.

       The association between ENSO and droughts in Ethiopia is due to an atmospheric teleconnection or "the linkages over great distance of seemingly disconnected weather anomalies" (Glantz el. al., 1991, 1). This means that the oceanic and atmospheric processes in another part of the world, such as the equatorial Pacific, could affect Ethiopian climate. Reliable ENSO information could be useful to forecast drought with longer lead time, enabling policy-makers to introduce early mitigating policies. Mark Cane (1993, 43) believes that "prediction is a possibility . . . especially when the patterns are forced by observable changes in surface conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST)."

        A study by Cane et al. (1994, 204) found a correlation between Zimbabwean maize yield and ENSO that, according to the authors, enables prediction of maize production with a lead time of up to a year. These findings show that in the 1970s and 1980s, droughts and low maize yields vacillated nearly in step with El Niño. Thus, a warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific surface waters appears to provide a warning for policymakers to take actions in preparation for future drought in their region. Such findings could be used for drought early warning in Ethiopia as well.

       Nicholls (1993, 170) believes that ENSO information could have provided an early warning to decisionmakers about Ethiopia's severe 1888 drought, had such information existed then. The other Ethiopian droughts and famines in the 20th century appear to have followed ENSO events as well. I do not think that the correlation between droughts in the Horn of Africa and El Niño events is coincidental. The current state of knowledge also suggests that monitoring the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) could predict drought with a longer lead time (ibid.).

ENSO Information and Early Warning in Ethiopia

       An institutionalized famine early warning system in Ethiopia is a relatively recent phenomenon. In the past, accounts of famine were passed to the central government through rumors and informal reports by the local police and administrators. Previous Ethiopian governments were also sluggish in their responses to disasters due to lack of adequate information, resources, and political will. A formal famine early warning system was established following the 1973/74 famine that killed upwards of two hundred thousand Ethiopian peasants (Kaplan 1988, 24).

       In 1976, the military government (which ruled from 1974 to 1991) established the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission or RRC (it was renamed as the Commission for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness or DPPC in 1995). Its task is to assess the food needs of the country and to mobilize resources. It advises the government and international donors about Ethiopia's food balance, the number of people at risk, and identifies vulnerable regions. The DPPC receives information from the Ministry of Agriculture, the NMSA, the Ethiopian Nutrition Institute, and the Central Statistics Authority. Some NGOs operating in Ethiopia have their own early warning systems (Glantz, 1996a).

        The Ethiopian NMSA collects and distributes agroclimatic information such as rainfall, temperature, water balance, and sunshine of the country. NMSA disseminates "flash reports" and seasonal forecasts. It also releases crop situation reports and four annual seasonal output reports, two at the beginning and two at the end of the meher (main cropping season; begins in September) and belg seasons. One problem of the early warning system in Ethiopia is the lack of competence at the lower level of the government hierarchy (DPPC 1996).

       I noted earlier the association between ENSO and drought in Ethiopia (Table 1). Recently, the NMSA has begun to use ENSO information to supplement its meteorological early warning system³. According to the NMSA, a cool event (La Niña) leads to decreased rainfall in the belg season (February-May) and heavy rainfall during the main (kiremt) rainy season (June-September) (Bekele 1993). A warm event is associated with an above-normal rainfall during the belg season. According to previous droughts, a positive SST anomaly that lasts at least a year is always associated with severe kiremt (June/September) drought in Ethiopia (ibid.). Thus, during ENSO years, belg rains are heavy and the main summer (kiremt) rains are reduced. In normal seasons, belg rains are variable and the main rains are stable (Glantz 1996b). The abnormally heavy rainfall in the 1996 summer (meher) season in Ethiopia (when NMSA had issued an early warning) might have been linked to a La Niña (eg, cold event)⁴.

        According to the National Drought Mitigation Center (1996), ENSO information helps for agricultural planning and for mitigating the societal impacts of droughts and floods. ENSO-based forecasts can help in determining land-use policies, and for conservation and humanitarian assistance. For example, when policymakers have advance information of low rainfall, they can prepare plans to assure an adequate food supply.

       The following is an example of applying an ENSO-based forecast for drought policy in Ethiopia. Based on the 1986 El Niño information, "NMSA provided a seasonal forecast, and the DPPC ( then the RRC) succeeded in averting the 1987 famine" (Ayalew 1996). In 1988 and 1989, the Ethiopian authorities and donors used ENSO data to recommend appropriate policies regarding the amount of land to be cultivated, input supplies (seeds, fertilizers), and conservation of food and water (NMSA, in Glantz 1996b, 79). Following the receipt of the 1992 ENSO information, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (1991-95) set up the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee in the Prime Minister's Office. The famine conditions of 1994 were averted due to the appropriate use of the 1993 information (Ayalew 1996). In 1996, the summer floods were predicted by the National Meorological Services Agency (Teshome 1997). The NMSA warned of possible flooding in its May 1996 forecast. In June 1996, the DPPC in turn distributed an early warning to its users.

       The potential beneficiaries of ENSO information in Ethiopia are farmers, herders, and the government. The success of an ENSO early warning depends on the actions taken by its users. The information concerning the advent of an ENSO event could warn both cash and food crop producers. Based on such information, farmers could introduce adequate agronomic changes. With reliable drought early warning, farmers could buy fodder or sell their cattle before market prices collapse. At the national level, surplus food could be stored for the next season, and additional food could be imported in anticipation of shortfalls. Herders might also sell off part of their herds before the arrival of drought. ENSO information is useful, but it has some weaknesses when applied to specific local conditions.

Problems of Disseminating ENSO Information to Local Users

        ENSO is a regional oceanic and atmospheric phenomena with global consequences. Its study and dissemination is of global importance. ENSO's effectiveness and limitations should be seen as based on its relevance to the various hierarchies of users. The information is important for regional policymakers to plan agricultural trade within and between countries and for relief transfers at a global level. The key issue is how to use ENSO at the village level, where the subsistence farmers need specific local information.

       Applying ENSO-based drought early warning to local conditions could reduce the impact of drought on society to its greatest extent. Farmers could be warned before the advent of drought as to when, what, and where to cultivate and when to sell their animals. Such actions require credible and reliable early warning and adequate information flow between government agencies and farmers. Such information helps the government to reorganize its resources before the impact of drought is felt. However, the effectiveness of ENSO information depends on its adequate dissemination to the local level and on the confidence of its users in the information.

       Thus, how should ENSO information be treated by the various hierarchies of decisionmakers and users? ENSO's effective level of prediction capability is global or, at best, regional. Its forecasting precision decreases when the spatial focus is narrowed from global, to regional, to national, to local levels. According to Farmer (1993), forecasting needs to be more spatially specific for the analysis to be useful. Farmer (ibid.) also raises the issue of the temporal and spatial distribution of ENSO effects on rainfall. This issue is relevant to Ethiopia, a country that has many local climates (Gonfa, 1996). For ENSO information to be credible at the local level, it has to respond to unique drought-related problems that arise due to diverse microclimates.

       The diversity of climate in Ethiopia has given rise to the presence of several cereal species (English and Hess, 1974). Ethiopian peasants possess and cultivate diverse crops because of the diversity of microclimates. Not only do important crops such as wheat and barley have different planting and harvesting dates, but the multiple species of wheat, barley, and teff also exhibit varied maturation periods due to differences in soils, sunlight, temperature, and rainfall variations.

       How does general ENSO information help the success of farmers with no access to irrigation? As noted, ENSO-based weather and climate prediction is general in nature and less effective in providing locally specific drought early warning. In Ethiopia, the NMSA, which is responsible for weather and climate forecasts, does not even have district branch offices.

       Peasant farming in Ethiopia is complex. It is difficult to make generalized crop recommendations because farms a few kilometers apart have different natural endowments known only to local farmers. Those who advise farmers need to know the details of local weather, soil types, resources, and farming systems. Mengisteab Haile (1997), an agrometeorologist with the DPPC, stated that it is difficult to take samples of agrometeorological data from various districts. Topography tends to make local microclimates unique. As Farmer (1993) notes, broad statements about the weather, without stating how the information could be used, will make famine early warning ineffective. ENSO-based early warning should be more specific in time and space to be relevant to peasant farmers.

Conclusion

       ENSO information could improve drought early warning by providing longer lead times to respond. This could enable farmers to identify suitable seeds and times for planting. This task is complicated, however, because Ethiopian farming is composed of numerous diverse microclimates. ENSO information would become more useful at the local level if it could be "tailored" to the needs of farmers by giving them specific information and recommendations.

       Adequate early warning could enable farmers to sell their animals before they die of starvation. With such information, food could be imported and preparations for drought impact in other sectors of the economy could be made.

       Despite the local limitations, ENSO information is useful for national and global policies that mitigate the adverse impacts of drought. National decisionmakers could use ENSO information to encourage farmers to produce, at least temporarily, food crops in place of cash crops, such as sugar cane, qat, and flowers. They could import food early and at lower cost and could reduce food exports. The information is also useful to solicit foreign resources before the full-blown impact of disaster becomes visible.

       ENSO-based drought early warning could send a "wake-up call" to governments to prepare for national food shortages. With such information, policies that reduce the impact of drought could be introduced. An early warning with many months of lead time, such as could be provided by ENSO information, would eliminate the excuse of national governments who claim to be unaware of the advent of drought. When drought causes famine, and a reliable drought early warning was available, it becomes a man-made disaster.

Associated Photos (400kb)

End Notes

1. I am grateful to Dr. Michael Glantz of the National Center for Atmospheric Research for his encouragement, support, and critical comments while preparing this manuscript.

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2. The chronology of Ethiopian drought and famine and their exact dating must be taken in the context of the problems associated with defining when a drought or famine commences and ends, as both are processes and not events.

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3. The NMSA uses the analogue, trend analysis, statistical assessments, and teleconnections as a method of forecasting ENSO-based seasonal weather (Bekele 1993).

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4. There was heavy rainfall in August 1996 in Ethiopia. The Awash River flood displaced many people and threatened the Metehara sugar plantation. The Aswan Dam in Egypt was full, leading to flood diversion. This was the result of the unusually heavy rainfall in Ethiopia's Blue Nile Basin.

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References

Attia, B.B., and A.B. Abulhoda, 1992: The ENSO Phenomenon and Its Impact on the Nile's Hydrology. In M.A. Abu-Zeid and A.K. Biswas (Eds.), Climate Fluctuations and Water Management. Butterworth Heinemann. 71-79.

Ayalew, M. (Former Head of The Early Warning and Planning Department, The Relief and Rehabilitation Commission), 1996: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Letter, August 26.

Bekele, F., 1993: Ethiopian Use of ENSO Information in Its Seasonal Forecasts. In M. H. Glantz (Ed.), Workshop on Usable Science: Food Security, Early Warning and El Niño. 25-28 October, 1993. Budapest, Hungary, Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 117-121.

Cane, M.A., 1993: ENSO and Its Prediction: How Well Can We Forecast It? Usable Science: Food Security, Early Warning and El Niño. 25-28 October 1993, Budapest, Hungary, Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Cane, M.A., E. Gideon, and R.W. Buckland, 1994: Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific seas surface temperature. Nature, 370:21, July, 204-5.

Degefu, W., 1987: Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia. In M. H. Glantz (Ed.), Drought and Hunger in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

DPPC (Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Commission), 1996: DPPC News. 6:3, April.

Eltahir, E.A., 1966: El Niño and the natural variability in the flow of the Nile River. Water Resources Research. 32:1, 131-137.

Farmer, G., 1993: What does the famine early warning community need from the ENSO research community? Workshop on Usable Science: Food Security, Early Warning and El Niño. 25-28 October, Budapest, Hungary, Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 163-168.

Glantz, M.H., 1996a: Are Famines so Difficult to Predict? Internet Journal of African Studies. http://www.brad.ac.uk/research/ijas/, 1.

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Glantz, M.H., 1993: Introduction. Forecasting El Niño: Science's Gift to the 21st Century. In M.H. Glantz (Ed.), Workshop on Usable Science: Food Security, Early Warning and El Niño. 25-28 October, Budapest, Hungary, Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3-11.

Glantz, M. H., R. W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, 1991: Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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Kaplan, R. D., 1988: Surrender or Starve, the wars behind the famine. Boulder and London: Westview Press.

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Pankhurst, R., 1966: The great Ethiopian famine of 1888-92. Journal of History of Medicine and Allied Sciences, 21, 95-124 and 271-94.

Quinn, W. H. and V. T. Neal, 1987: El Niño Occurrences Over the Past Four and Half Centuries. Journal of Physical Research, 92:C13, December 15, 14,449-14,461.

Teshome, E. (Head of the Department of Early Warning, Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Commission [DPPC]), 1997: Interview, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 17.

Trenberth, K. E., 1991: General Characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation." In M. H. Glantz, R. Katz and N. Nicholls (Eds.), Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 13-42.

Webb, P. and J. von Braun, 1994: Famine and Food Security in Ethiopia: Lessons for Africa. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

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