Just four months in, it's a fair bet 2009 will be remembered as the year crime in Vancouver went from bad to untenable.

Reeling from a string of shootings on city streets linked to drug gangs, Lower Mainlanders were shocked to learn of the April 4 murder of a jogger in one of the city's most popular parks.

Vancouver residents are accustomed to hearing about their city in glowing terms as one of the most livable and cleanest cities in the world. But earlier this year, Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan labelled the city Canada's gang capital, leaving the impression Vancouver is a dangerous place to live.

A recent article in a Seattle newspaper asks its readers: "Would gang violence deter you from attending the Olympics?"

It's easy to lose perspective when people are getting murdered in front of downtown restaurants or in city green spaces.

But the fact is, Vancouver does not have a high murder rate, either by Canadian or North American standards.

In terms of perception, a new Harris/Decima poll reveals a heightened worry about crime nationally, "but particularly among residents of B.C. [and] Alberta."

Crime stats, however, show Canada's crime rate hit a 25-year low in 2006, with every province and territory recording a drop. Now, when it comes to the precise category of "gun-related violent crime," Metro Vancouver consistently has experienced the highest rate of any Canadian metropolitan area: 43.5 violent offences with guns per 100,000 population, compared with a national average of 27.5. Toronto's rate is 40.4.

But when overall crime is considered -- offences ranging from murder to sexual assault to impaired driving -- the folks who need to worry more are those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the provinces with the highest crime rates in the country.

Tracking homicides specifically, as of 2007, B.C. had a rate of 2.5 per 100,000 population, lower than the 2.8 in Alberta, 4.1 in Saskatchewan and 3.3 in Manitoba.

Last year, Vancouver recorded 18 murders, compared to Toronto's 70 and Montreal's 29. The first few months of 2009 does show a new trend: more Vancouver murders, 20 so far.

But to put things in perspective, Vancouver continues to be a relatively safe North American city. In the U.S., the average homicide rate is 6.3 per 100,000. In Seattle last year, 30 murders were recorded, in L.A., 381, in New York, 523.

The uptick in Vancouver's murder rate in the last few months is being blamed on gangs. The murder in Pacific Spirit Park seemed to come as "a last straw," but did not reflect any discernible trend.

Vancouver is brimming with gangs: the Hells Angels, the United Nations Gang, the Independent Soldiers, Chinese Triad gangs, the Big Circle Boys, Red Scorpions, Punjabi gangs, the East European mafia.

What has been happening is that Mexican authorities have launched a campaign to curb their own drug cartel activity.

That campaign has disrupted the cocaine supply line that runs from L.A. to Vancouver, which in turn has sent drug prices skyward and fuelled more gang violence.

Whether this reflects a temporary or more permanent situation is hard to know.

But what is clear is that Vancouver, with its close proximity to the U.S. border, is likely to continue experiencing an outsized number of homicides for a city its size as long as it continues producing a potent and plentiful marijuana crop and has a culture that supports it.

byaffe@vancouversun.com