Montenegro: A surprise regional champion
27.05.2010 @ 08:41 CET
Ambition is rarely matched by sufficient reform when it comes to Balkan countries' desire to enter the European Union. The region's aspirants for EU accession seldom make the news with their achievements - more regularly they are associated with stalled political effort and delayed results.
This is not the case with tiny Montenegro, which appears to be the EU's best student in the Western Balkans. It is politically stable and remarkably assiduous in following Brussels' reform recommendations.
Podgorica - a good pupil hoping for EU rewards (Photo: Wikimedia Commons/Lakebolt)
Montenegro shares many of its neighbours' problems with crime, graft and unreformed judiciary. However, it is not too hard to stand out in a neighbourhood where countries struggle to resolve much tougher challenges that delay not just their EU future, but also their transformation into proper democracies.
Croatia, which is closest to EU accession in the region, is still facing questions on its cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Similar issues persist in Serbia, whose EU integration is additionally threatened by Belgrade's tough attitude to Kosovo. Further on, Bosnia and Herzegovina struggles with a difficult transition to rule of law; so does Albania, gripped for months by political paralysis. The name dispute with Greece doesn't help Macedonia's EU prospects, while Kosovo is still a no man's land in terms of its status, an issue on which EU member states have agreed to disagree.
In such company, it is easy for Montenegro to attract sympathy in Brussels and beyond. This month the European Commission is finalising clarifications with the Montenegrin authorities before it delivers an opinion on the country's readiness for EU candidate status. The first draft of the opinion will be ready in July, and the final version is expected on 10 November, when the Commission will also assess the progress in Turkey and the other Western Balkan EU-hopefuls.
Sources from within the EU institutions expect Montenegro will become a candidate for EU accession in the first half of next year, during the Hungarian presidency of the EU. Hungary is known for its support for Montenegro. This was demonstrated clearly in NATO, where last year Budapest played an important role in securing a membership action plan for Podgorica. Similar lobbying is likely to take place in the EU next year.
"Political and technical reasons" are set to prevent Montenegro from getting candidate status earlier, diplomats say. One argument is that the Belgian presidency is unlikely to put the issue on the European Council's already busy agenda this year.
Even if Montenegro's candidacy were to appear on the agenda in December, a decision would have to wait for next year, because the German Parliament would need at least six weeks to deliver its opinion on the matter. The Bundestag was given a greater say in European issues when on the Treaty of Lisbon was ratified in Germany.
Either way, gaining candidate status seems only a matter of time for Montenegro. But not rushing negotiations is one lesson the EU has learned from its experience of membership talks with Balkan countries. Using each step of the process as either a carrot or a stick is a strategy the EU is likely to apply to Montenegro as well. So while the country will get a positive assessment from the Commission, the proposal to open accession negotiations may have to wait.
"Montenegro has problems with corruption, organised crime, rule of law and lack of administrative capacity," a senior EU diplomat noted. "The EU Council of Ministers stated in 2009 that these issues should be tackled as early as possible in the EU integration process. So, it is likely that Montenegro will gain candidate status, but the date for negotiations would be decided later, depending on the results in solving these problems."
