Grand National Betting
The whole nation loves a bet on the Grand National and everyone seems to have their own method of making their selection. For many it will be their only bet of the year and so their choice may be based on nothing more scientific than their lucky number, their house number, or the name of a friend or relative. Similarly, the rather politically incorrect “housewives choice” is unlikely to emerge after long nights of studying the formbook, but will instead be a grey, or be based on the jockey or trainer.
Believe it or not, however, as our Grand National trends section shows, it is possible to apply an element of science to the selection process and whilst, as the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, it is hard to ignore certain of the historical trends.
In particularly, it is now common knowledge among more regular punters that horses carrying in excess of 11 stone rarely seem to win the National anymore and this, in theory, immediately allows us to rule out a good chunk of the field.
The next thing to bear in mind if you intend to have a bet before the day of the big race is that, of the horses entered (see the Grand National entries), only forty can run and so any horse below, say, number fifty five in that list has very little chance of taking part.
The key to having an ante post bet, of course, is to try to find a horse that is guaranteed to make the line up on the day and with the National this task is made even trickier than usual because of the limit on the number of runners who can take part. As always, well fancied horses will drop out right up to the day of the race due to injury, illness, loss of form etc. However, if your selection is below number 40 then there is this additional risk to take into account.
Finally, there is one completely unscientific factor to take into account. Almost without fail there is a fairytale behind every National winner and when analyzing the form of this year’s runners it is always worth having at the back of your mind whether there would be a fitting National story behind a win for a particular horse. The Grand National history section of this site relives the greatest National stories of all time.
Beginner's Grand National Betting Guide
What does the handicap mean?
Each horse running in the Grand National is allotted a weight with the intention of equalising the chance of every runner – ie the better horses carry the most weight. It's not an exact science and the statistics point markedly to the fact that horses with higher weights struggle in the National.
Does the horse's age matter?
Four seven-year-olds ran in this year's Grand National but no horse of that age has won the race since 1940. Nine-year-olds have proved the most successful age group in recent years, providing 10 of the last 31 winners, but 10, 11 and 12-year-olds have also enjoyed plenty of success. The oldest ever winner, Peter Simple in 1853, was 15.
What is referred to by the going?
The condition of the turf, largely how wet or dry it is, is measured on a scale which varies from 'heavy' to 'hard', but usually the going for the Grand National is either good, good to soft, or good to firm. Some horses have a notable preference for a certain type of conditions, but the majority of horses handle most types of ground.
Is there an optimum place at the start?
No, not really. Each jockey has their own preference as to where they like to be in the early part of the race, either towards the front or the rear or somewhere in between. Some riders prefer to stay close to the inner rail, saving ground around the bends, while others prefer to take a wider route around the outside where their horses can get a clearer sight of the fences and run less of a risk of being hampered or brought down by fallers. Those that go flying off at the start are rarely there at the finish.
Should anyone back the favourite?
Just eight of the last 50 favourites have won the Grand National, but three of those wins have come in the last six years. The last horse to go off at less than 5/1 was Red Rum – unfortunately that came on one of the two occasions when he was beaten in the race rather than for his three wins. He was 7/2 when beaten by L'Escargot in 1975.
What happens to loose horses?
There is only so much anyone can do to stop 600kg of prime thoroughbred. While some horses continue to run with the field, others gallop straight back to the comfort of the stables. Horses that lose their jockey in the early stages can play a further part in the race when running loose. In 2005, Tony McCoy looked set to break his duck in the world's most famous jumps race until a loose horse ran at right angles in front of his mount, Clan Royal, forcing him out of the race on the run to Becher's Brook on the second circuit.
When does a likely winner emerge?
This varies from race to race. Last year a dozen horses were still in with a chance at the second-last fence until Mon Mome emerged from the pack to pull clear. A year previously, the first three had the race to themselves from some way out. Each Grand National is different. Don't forget Foinavon, who was left furlongs clear in 1967 when only he survived a pile-up at the 23rd fence.
Grand National Betting History
Due to the size and competitive nature of the Grand National field, the race is often won by a horse with a double-figure starting price.
Only Grittar (7/1), West Tip (15/2), Rough Quest (7/1), Earth Summit (7/1) and Hedgehunter (7/1) have been returned at less than 10/1 since 1978.
Since 1970, only six favourites have won: Grittar in 1982, Rough Quest in 1996, Earth Summit in 1998, Hedgehunter in 2005, Comply or Die in 2008 and Don't Push It in 2010.
Whilst three of the last six favourites (or joint-favourites) have won, there have also been a number of long-priced shocks in recent renewals: Last Suspect at 50/1, Royal Athlete and Ben Nevis both at 40/1, Red Marauder and Silver Birch both at 33/1, Maori Venture and Little Polveir both at 28/1 and Rubstic at 25/1.
Three 100/1 shots have been placed since 1980, Over The Deel in 1995, Camelot Knight in 1997 and Philson Run in 2007. In 2009 however, Mon Mome went one better and won the National at 100/1.
In total 5 winners in the race's history have started at 100/1: Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947), Foinavon (1967) and Mon Mome (2009).
Poethlyn (1919) is the shortest-priced winner of the race at 11/4.
Below we track the record of Grand National favourites over the last few years:
| Year | Grand National favourite | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | DON'T PUSH IT / Big Fella Thanks (10/1) | WON / 4th |
| 2009 | Butler's Cabin (7/1) | 7th |
| 2008 | COMPLY OR DIE / Cloudy Lane (7/1) | WON / 6th |
| 2007 | Point Barrow / Joe's Edge / Monkerhostin (8/1) | Fell at 1st / Pulled-up at 20th / Refused 7th |
| 2006 | Hedgehunter / Clan Royal (5/1) | 2nd / 3rd |
| 2005 | HEDGEHUNTER (7/1) | WON |
| 2004 | Clan Royal / Bindaree / Joss Naylor / Jurancon II (10/1) | 2nd / Unseated at 6th / Pulled-up before 19th / Fell at 4th |
| 2003 | Shotgun Willy (7/1) | Pulled-up after 21st |
| 2002 | Blowing Wind (8/1) | 3rd |
| 2001 | Edmond / Inis Cara / Moral Support (10/1) | Fell at the chair (15th) / Fell at 4th / Refused Canal Turn (8th) |
| 2000 | Dark Stranger (9/1) | Unseated rider at 3rd |
| 1999 | Fiddling The Facts (6/1) | Fell at second Becher's Brook (22nd) |
| 1998 | EARTH SUMMIT (7/1) | WON |
| 1997 | Go Ballisitc (7/1) | Pulled-up at the 29th |
| 1996 | ROUGH QUEST (7/1) | WON |
| 1995 | Master Oats (5/1) | 7th |
| 1994 | Moorcroft Boy (5/1) | 3rd |
| 1993 | Void Race | - |
| 1992 | Docklands Express (15/2) | 4th |
| 1991 | Bonanza Boy (13/2) | 5th |
| 1990 | Brown Windsor (7/1) | 5th |
| 1989 | Dixton House (7/1) | Fell at first Beecher's Brook (6th) |
Grand National Wacky Wagers
Over the years there have been many bizarre bets on the Grand National - some winners and some losers. Here are some of our favourites:
Amateur rider and optimist Peter Walker, from Blackpool, bet £10 at 1000/1 with William Hill in 1993 when he was 54 that one day he would become the oldest man ever to ride in the National.
Judy Higby from St Albans, Herts, tried to bet that the 1993 Grand National would not be run after she had a premonition. Her bookie said he'd do her a favour by not taking her money because it couldn't happen. The race was cancelled after a false-start fiasco!
Terry Ramsden staked over £100,000 on his own horse, Mr Snugfit, in 1986 and stood to win over £1 million. With three fences left Mr Snugfit, the 13/2 favourite, had most of the 20 runners in front of him but jockey Phil Tuck galvanised him so well that he passed all but three and finished in fourth place to give his owner a small profit from his each-way bets.
Bingo club tycoon, Mike Fuller, who owned 2003 Grand National winner Monty's Pass, won nearly £1 million on the race. His biggest bet was £10,000 at 50/1 which earned him £500,000. So when Barry Geraghty crossed the line, Fuller landed the biggest gamble in the race's long history.
Headmaster Peter Rogers collected £6,000 in 1983 after betting the parents of children at his St Michael's Junior School in Kirby that he could complete the Grand National course - without a horse. He did it in 40 minutes - and donated his winnings to school funds.
In 1971, Lord Poulett, owner of The Lamb, had a dream in which his horse won the National, ridden by jockey Tommy Pickernell - so he hired Pickernell. The Lamb started 11/2 second favourite - and duly won!