Photodiarist
On 9 January 2011 the people of South Sudan start voting for independence of Southern Sudan. Although this will last a week, the outcome seems clear: Southern Sudan will become an independent country. This will almost certainly mean that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 will end and the war with (Northern) Sudan might flare up again. In order to defend South Sudan, an air force is needed.
UPDATED 28-01-2011
In 2007 South Sudan already withdrew from the CPA in october 2007 and preparations for independence began. On 24th June 2008 the South Sudan Air Force1 was formally created by the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly, although it didn't have any aircraft yet.
Considering the size of the (Northern) Sudan Armed Forces at first glance it looks like South Sudan is the underdog. South Sudan has a powerful ally though; in July 2009 the USAF announced its inaugural "Building Partner Aviation Capacity Course". The training course in basic aviation planning "included representatives from the U.S., Costa Rica and Sudan," Since it is very unlikely that the participants are from northern Sudan, they are probably from the south. Cables released by wikileaks at cablegate also indicated that the USA requested Kenya to release the T-72 tanks that were on the Ukranian freighter hijacked by Somali pirates in 2008.
In May 2010 Major General Kuol Dim Kuol of the Sudan People's Liberation Army said: "SPLA has formed a nucleus air force and navy. Our pilots and engineers have been trained and local support and administrative units will follow suit."
On 26 January 2011 the South Sudan Air Force was officially launched by President Salva Kiir in the presence of senior officials of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and foreign diplomats.
Even before the formal creation, an order for 10 Mi-17s was placed with Kazan Helicopters in May 2007. These are 9 (unarmed) Mi-17-V5s and 1 Mi-172 in VIP-configuration. Initial delivery of 4 Mi-17s was on 12 August 2010 via Entebbe in Uganda. The other 6 should be delivered in September 2010, but since the original delivery of the first shipment was delayed this is unclear. According to (Northern) Sudan buying helicopters is in violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, but obviously South Sudan disagrees.
Ironically on 8 August 2010 - a few days before delivery of the first SSAF Mi-17s - a Mi-8 (from Sudanair) smuggling weapons was impounded by the South Sudan Government. This might be a story to explain the sudden presence of unknown Mi-17s in Southern Sudan. Since the impounding of the helicopter was first published by pro-North Sudanese media, it is probably true; it seems likely that the impounded helicopter will be put into service as the 11th Mi-8/17.
It also seems likely that the SSAF operates or charters fixed-wing aircraft. According to the (North) Sudan Armed Forces the SPLA evacuated 67 injured (Justice and Equality Movement) rebels through Jaj airstrip in Bhar el-Ghazal to Juba and Uganda in November 2010. Although this can be done with helicopters it is a considerable distance and fixed-wing aircraft are more likely. Since Lockheed Martin is one of the US contractors supporting the SPLA it wouldn't be a surprise when (ex-USAF) C-130s will appear in the SSAF inventory.
South Sudan has considerable oil reserves and many concessions are made to western countries. Therefore it is likely that adequate funds are available for acquiring new aircraft in the near future. South Sudan allocates 40% of its budget to defence. Sudan is a huge country and (Northern) Sudan's fixed-wing combat aircraft only have limited value. Air defence probably isn't an issue; ground support and transport is. Considering the limited infrastructure likely candidates are:
The following aircraft types are more of a guess, but are certainly suitable for South Sudan.
The aircraft will probably be bought from Russia, Ukraine or other Eastern European countries.
Rumbek and Juba are likely candidates for the main air bases of the SSAF. Rumbek will probably support combat operations with helicopters such as the Mi-17s and possibly Mi-35s and Su-25s. Juba will become the capital of independent South Sudan and will house transport aircraft and maintenance facilities.
1 The aircraft serials are preceded with SPAF. This suggests that the Sudan People's Air Force or Sudan People'sArmed Forcesis the formal name used. Until the official name is confirmed South Sudan Air Force is used.