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How close were U.S. Presidential Elections?



This page answers the question:
What is the SMALLEST number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

POPULAR VOTE
or
ELECTORAL VOTE?

Are you considering the Popular Vote or Electoral Vote?

Both! You can not correctly analyze U.S. Presidential Elections without taking both methods into account. The popular vote tells you if the candidate won the state or not, while the electoral vote tells you how much that state was 'worth' in that election.

It is possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote, and therefore the election. It is also possible to win the election with less than 50% of the voting population. Both of these scenarios, as well as others, have happened in actual elections.

There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different.

That is what this page solves. What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?


Corrections, comments, suggestions? Send me an e-mail
Thank you, Mike Sheppard
[Personal Homepage]


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Back to Top Previous Election Next Election Rankings

2008

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  MCCAIN OBAMA   Change of votes   MCCAIN OBAMA   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
North Carolina 2109698 0 2123390 15   6847   2116545 15 2116543 0   4258507
Indiana 1342982 0 1368992 11   13006   1355988 11 1355986 0   2741186
New Hampshire 316937 0 384591 4   33828   350765 4 350763 0   707648
Iowa 677508 0 818240 7   70367   747875 7 747873 0   1516072
Florida 3939380 0 4143957 27   102289   4041669 27 4041668 0   8144225
Ohio 2501855 0 2708685 20   103416   2605271 20 2605269 0   5295486
Virginia 1726053 0 1958370 13   116159   1842212 13 1842211 0   3716763
All Other States   173   268   173   268  
TOTAL   173   365   445912   270   268   26379887
  OBAMA WINS   MCCAIN WINS  
  2008 Election (Actual)   2008 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 2%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 2008

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
32
By percent of Voters needed:
18
By votes per electorate needed:
38

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 2008 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections





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2004

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  BUSH KERRY   Change of votes   BUSH KERRY   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
New Mexico 376930 5 370942 0   2995   373935 0 373937 5   756304
Iowa 751957 7 741898 0   5030   746927 0 746928 7   1506908
Colorado 1101255 9 1001732 0   49762   1051493 0 1051494 9   2130330
All Other States   265   252   265   252  
TOTAL   286   252   57787   265   273   4393542
  BUSH WINS   KERRY WINS  
  2004 Election (Actual)   2004 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 2004

Note: Actual elector vote was 286-251-1 (see here). While it is true that had Kerry won Ohio, he would have won the election, he would have needed 59,301 voters to switch their vote from Bush to win the state. That number is more than the 57,787 votes needed to affect the election that's listed here.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
20
By percent of Voters needed:
15
By votes per electorate needed:
30

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 2004 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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2000

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  BUSH GORE   Change of votes   BUSH GORE   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Florida 2912790 25 2912253 0   269   2912521 0 2912522 25   5963110
All Other States   246   267   246   267  
TOTAL   271   267   269   246   292   5963110
  BUSH WINS   GORE WINS  
  2000 Election (Actual)   2000 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 2000

Note: Actual elector vote was 271-266-1 (see here). While the 2000 election was not the closest in either popular vote or electoral vote, it was the closest in US history in terms of the smallest popular vote difference needed to affect the election. Compare with the election of 1876.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
1
By percent of Voters needed:
1
By votes per electorate needed:
1

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 2000 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1996

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  DOLE CLINTON   Change of votes   DOLE CLINTON   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Nevada 199244 0 203974 4   2366   201610 4 201608 0   464279
Kentucky 623283 0 636614 8   6666   629949 8 629948 0   1388708
Arizona 622073 0 653288 8   15608   637681 8 637680 0   1404405
New Mexico 232751 0 273495 5   20373   253124 5 253122 0   556074
Tennessee 863530 0 909146 11   22809   886339 11 886337 0   1894105
New Hampshire 196532 0 246214 4   24842   221374 4 221372 0   499175
Oregon 538152 0 649641 7   55745   593897 7 593896 0   1377760
Iowa 492644 0 620258 7   63808   556452 7 556450 0   1234075
Missouri 890016 0 1025935 11   67960   957976 11 957975 0   2158065
Ohio 1859883 0 2148222 21   144170   2004053 21 2004052 0   4534434
Florida 2244536 0 2546870 25   151168   2395704 25 2395702 0   5303794
All Other States   159   268   159   268  
TOTAL   159   379   575515   270   268   20814874
  CLINTON WINS   DOLE WINS  
  1996 Election (Actual)   1996 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 3%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1996

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
35
By percent of Voters needed:
29
By votes per electorate needed:
39

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1996 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1992

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  BUSH CLINTON   Change of votes   BUSH CLINTON   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
New Hampshire 202484 0 209040 4   3279   205763 4 205761 0   537215
Montana 144207 0 154507 3   5151   149358 3 149356 0   410583
Nevada 175828 0 189148 4   6661   182489 4 182487 0   506318
Georgia 995252 0 1008966 13   6858   1002110 13 1002108 0   2321133
Delaware 102313 0 126054 3   11871   114184 3 114183 0   289620
Hawaii 136822 0 179310 4   21245   158067 4 158065 0   372842
Kentucky 617178 0 665104 8   23964   641142 8 641140 0   1492900
Colorado 562850 0 629681 8   33416   596266 8 596265 0   1569180
New Jersey 1356865 0 1436206 15   39671   1396536 15 1396535 0   3343594
Louisiana 733386 0 815971 9   41293   774679 9 774678 0   1790017
Ohio 1894310 0 1984942 21   45317   1939627 21 1939625 0   4939964
Tennessee 841300 0 933521 11   46111   887411 11 887410 0   1982638
All Other States   168   267   168   267  
TOTAL   168   370   284837   271   267   19556004
  CLINTON WINS   BUSH WINS  
  1992 Election (Actual)   1992 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 2%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1992

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
29
By percent of Voters needed:
16
By votes per electorate needed:
31

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1992 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1988

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  BUSH DUKAKIS   Change of votes   BUSH DUKAKIS   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Vermont 124331 3 115775 0   4279   120052 0 120054 3   243333
South Dakota 165415 3 145560 0   9928   155487 0 155488 3   312991
Montana 190412 4 168936 0   10739   179673 0 179675 4   365674
New Mexico 270341 5 244497 0   12923   257418 0 257420 5   521287
Delaware 139639 3 108647 0   15497   124142 0 124144 3   249891
North Dakota 166559 3 127739 0   19411   147148 0 147150 3   297261
Maryland 876167 10 826304 0   24932   851235 0 851236 10   1714358
Maine 307131 4 243569 0   31782   275349 0 275351 4   555035
Connecticut 750241 8 676584 0   36829   713412 0 713413 8   1443394
Missouri 1084953 11 1001619 0   41668   1043285 0 1043287 11   2093228
Illinois 2310939 24 2215940 0   47500   2263439 0 2263440 24   4559120
Pennsylvania 2300087 25 2194944 0   52572   2247515 0 2247516 25   4536251
Colorado 728177 8 621453 0   53363   674814 0 674816 8   1372394
California 5054917 47 4702233 0   176343   4878574 0 4878576 47   9887064
All Other States   268   112   268   112  
TOTAL   426   112   537766   268   270   28151281
  BUSH WINS   DUKAKIS WINS  
  1988 Election (Actual)   1988 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 2%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1988

Note: Actual elector vote was 426-111-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
33
By percent of Voters needed:
23
By votes per electorate needed:
33

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1988 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1984

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  REAGAN MONDALE   Change of votes   REAGAN MONDALE   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Rhode Island 212080 4 197106 0   7488   204592 0 204594 4   410492
Hawaii 185050 4 147154 0   18949   166101 0 166103 4   335846
Vermont 135865 3 95730 0   20068   115797 0 115798 3   234561
Delaware 152190 3 101656 0   25268   126922 0 126924 3   254572
Massachusetts 1310936 13 1239606 0   35666   1275270 0 1275272 13   2559453
Alaska 138377 3 62007 0   38186   100191 0 100193 3   207605
West Virginia 405483 6 328125 0   38680   366803 0 366805 6   735742
Wyoming 133241 3 53370 0   39936   93305 0 93306 3   188968
Montana 232450 4 146742 0   42855   189595 0 189597 4   384377
Maryland 879918 10 787935 0   45992   833926 0 833927 10   1675873
Nevada 188770 4 91655 0   48558   140212 0 140213 4   286667
Iowa 703088 8 605620 0   48735   654353 0 654355 8   1319805
New Mexico 307101 5 201769 0   52667   254434 0 254436 5   514370
Maine 336500 4 214515 0   60993   275507 0 275508 4   553144
Oregon 685700 7 536479 0   74611   611089 0 611090 7   1226527
Wisconsin 1198800 11 995847 0   101477   1097323 0 1097324 11   2212016
Washington 1051670 10 807352 0   122160   929510 0 929512 10   1883910
Tennessee 990212 11 711714 0   139250   850962 0 850964 11   1711993
Pennsylvania 2584323 25 2228131 0   178097   2406226 0 2406228 25   4844903
Georgia 1068722 12 706628 0   181048   887674 0 887676 12   1776093
New York 3664763 36 3119609 0   272578   3392185 0 3392187 36   6806810
Illinois 2707103 24 2086499 0   310303   2396800 0 2396802 24   4819088
California 5467009 47 3922519 0   772246   4694763 0 4694765 47   9505423
All Other States   268   13   268   13  
TOTAL   525   13   2675811   268   270   44448238
  REAGAN WINS   MONDALE WINS  
  1984 Election (Actual)   1984 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 7%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1984

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
43
By percent of Voters needed:
36
By votes per electorate needed:
43

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1984 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1980

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  REAGAN CARTER   Change of votes   REAGAN CARTER   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Massachusetts 1057631 14 1053802 0   1915   1055716 0 1055717 14   2524298
Tennessee 787761 10 783051 0   2356   785405 0 785407 10   1617616
Arkansas 403164 6 398041 0   2562   400602 0 400603 6   837582
Delaware 111252 3 105754 0   2750   108502 0 108504 3   235668
Mississippi 441089 7 429281 0   5905   435184 0 435186 7   892620
Vermont 94598 3 81891 0   6354   88244 0 88245 3   213207
South Carolina 441207 8 427560 0   6824   434383 0 434384 8   890083
Alabama 654192 9 636730 0   8732   645460 0 645462 9   1341929
Maine 238522 4 220974 0   8775   229747 0 229749 4   523011
Kentucky 635274 9 616417 0   9429   625845 0 625846 9   1294627
North Carolina 915018 13 875635 0   19692   895326 0 895327 13   1855833
Louisiana 792853 10 708453 0   42201   750652 0 750654 10   1548591
Wisconsin 1088845 11 981584 0   53631   1035214 0 1035215 11   2273221
New York 2893831 41 2728372 0   82730   2811101 0 2811102 41   6201959
Michigan 1915225 21 1661532 0   126847   1788378 0 1788379 21   3909725
Pennsylvania 2261872 27 1937540 0   162167   2099705 0 2099707 27   4561501
Illinois 2358049 26 1981413 0   188319   2169730 0 2169732 26   4749721
All Other States   267   49   267   49  
TOTAL   489   49   731189   267   271   35471192
  REAGAN WINS   CARTER WINS  
  1980 Election (Actual)   1980 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 3%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1980

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
38
By percent of Voters needed:
25
By votes per electorate needed:
32

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1980 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1976

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  FORD CARTER   Change of votes   FORD CARTER   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Hawaii 140003 0 147375 4   3687   143690 4 143688 0   291301
Ohio 2000505 0 2011621 25   5559   2006064 25 2006062 0   4111873
All Other States   241   268   241   268  
TOTAL   241   297   9246   270   268   4403174
  CARTER WINS   FORD WINS  
  1976 Election (Actual)   1976 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1976

Note: Actual elector vote was 297-240-1 (see here). It has been reported that Carter won the election with the states of Delaware and Ohio However, Hawaii was closer in votes than Delaware and also carried enough electoral votes, with Ohio, to affect the outcome. Had Ford won Hawaii and Ohio he would have won the election.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
11
By percent of Voters needed:
6
By votes per electorate needed:
14

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1976 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1972

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  NIXON MCGOVERN   Change of votes   NIXON MCGOVERN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Alaska 55349 3 32967 0   11192   44157 0 44159 3   95219
Rhode Island 220383 4 194645 0   12870   207513 0 207515 4   415808
South Dakota 166476 4 139945 0   13266   153210 0 153211 4   307415
Delaware 140357 3 92283 0   24038   116319 0 116321 3   235516
Vermont 117149 3 68174 0   24488   92661 0 92662 3   186947
Nevada 115750 3 66016 0   24868   90882 0 90884 3   181766
Wyoming 100464 3 44358 0   28054   72410 0 72412 3   145570
Montana 183976 4 120197 0   31890   152086 0 152087 4   317603
Hawaii 168865 4 101409 0   33729   135136 0 135138 4   270274
North Dakota 174109 3 100384 0   36863   137246 0 137247 3   280514
Oregon 486686 6 392760 0   46964   439722 0 439724 6   927946
New Mexico 235606 4 141084 0   47262   188344 0 188346 4   385931
Maine 256458 4 160584 0   47938   208520 0 208522 4   417271
Minnesota 898269 10 802346 0   47962   850307 0 850308 10   1741652
New Hampshire 213724 4 116435 0   48645   165079 0 165080 4   334055
Idaho 199384 4 80826 0   59280   140104 0 140106 4   310379
Wisconsin 989430 11 810174 0   89629   899801 0 899803 11   1852890
Iowa 706207 8 496206 0   105001   601206 0 601207 8   1225944
Connecticut 810763 8 555498 0   127633   683130 0 683131 8   1384277
Washington 837135 9 568334 0   134401   702734 0 702735 9   1470847
South Carolina 478427 8 189270 0   144579   333848 0 333849 8   677880
Maryland 829305 10 505781 0   161763   667542 0 667544 10   1353812
Michigan 1961721 21 1459435 0   251144   1710577 0 1710579 21   3490325
Illinois 2788179 26 1913472 0   437354   2350825 0 2350826 26   4723236
California 4602096 45 3475847 0   563125   4038971 0 4038972 45   8367862
New York 4192778 41 2951084 0   620848   3571930 0 3571932 41   7161830
All Other States   268   17   268   17  
TOTAL   521   17   3174786   268   270   38262769
  NIXON WINS   MCGOVERN WINS  
  1972 Election (Actual)   1972 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 9%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1972

Note: Actual elector vote was 520-17-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
44
By percent of Voters needed:
42
By votes per electorate needed:
44

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1972 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1968

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  NIXON HUMPHREY   Change of votes   NIXON HUMPHREY   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Alaska 37600 3 35411 0   1095   36505 0 36506 3   83035
Delaware 96714 3 89194 0   3761   92953 0 92955 3   214367
Nevada 73188 3 60598 0   6296   66892 0 66894 3   154218
Vermont 85142 3 70255 0   7444   77698 0 77699 3   161404
Missouri 811932 12 791444 0   10245   801687 0 801689 12   1809502
Wisconsin 809997 12 748804 0   30597   779400 0 779401 12   1691538
New Jersey 1325467 17 1264206 0   30631   1294836 0 1294837 17   2875395
Ohio 1791014 26 1700586 0   45215   1745799 0 1745801 26   3959698
All Other States   223   191   223   191  
TOTAL   302   191   135284   268   270   10949157
  NIXON WINS   HUMPHREY WINS  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1968

Note: Actual elector vote was 301-191-46 (see here). Although Wallace received 46 electoral votes, and won 5 states, the smallest change of popular votes needed to affect the election (listed above) did not need any votes to be changed from his count, so he is not listed in the table. Compare to the 1924 election.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
25
By percent of Voters needed:
4
By votes per electorate needed:
26

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1968 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1964

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  GOLDWATER JOHNSON   Change of votes   GOLDWATER JOHNSON   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Idaho 143557 0 148920 4   2682   146239 4 146238 0   292477
Wyoming 61998 0 80718 3   9361   71359 3 71357 0   142716
Alaska 22930 0 44329 3   10700   33630 3 33629 0   67259
Nevada 56094 0 79339 3   11623   67717 3 67716 0   135433
Nebraska 276847 0 307307 5   15231   292078 5 292076 0   584154
South Dakota 130108 0 163010 4   16452   146560 4 146558 0   293118
Utah 180682 0 219628 4   19474   200156 4 200154 0   400310
North Dakota 108207 0 149784 4   20789   128996 4 128995 0   258389
Florida 905941 0 948540 14   21300   927241 14 927240 0   1854481
Delaware 78078 0 122704 3   22314   100392 3 100390 0   201320
Montana 113032 0 164246 4   25608   138640 4 138638 0   278628
Vermont 54942 0 108127 3   26593   81535 3 81534 0   163089
New Mexico 131838 0 194017 4   31090   162928 4 162927 0   327615
Arkansas 243264 0 314197 6   35467   278731 6 278730 0   560426
Virginia 481334 0 558038 12   38353   519687 12 519685 0   1042267
Kansas 386579 0 464028 7   38725   425304 7 425303 0   857901
New Hampshire 104029 0 182065 4   39019   143048 4 143046 0   286094
Oklahoma 412665 0 519834 8   53585   466250 8 466249 0   932499
Tennessee 508965 0 634947 11   62992   571957 11 571955 0   1143946
North Carolina 624844 0 800139 13   87648   712492 13 712491 0   1424983
Colorado 296767 0 476024 6   89629   386396 6 386395 0   776986
Oregon 282779 0 501017 6   109120   391899 6 391897 0   786305
Indiana 911118 0 1170848 13   129866   1040984 13 1040982 0   2091606
Iowa 449148 0 733030 9   141942   591090 9 591088 0   1184539
Texas 958566 0 1663185 25   352310   1310876 25 1310875 0   2626811
California 2879108 0 4171877 40   646385   3525493 40 3525492 0   7057586
All Other States   52   268   52   268  
TOTAL   52   486   2058258   270   268   25770938
  JOHNSON WINS   GOLDWATER WINS  
  1964 Election (Actual)   1964 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 8%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1964

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
42
By percent of Voters needed:
40
By votes per electorate needed:
42

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1964 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1960

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  NIXON KENNEDY   Change of votes   NIXON KENNEDY   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Hawaii 92295 0 92410 3   58   92353 3 92352 0   184705
New Mexico 153733 0 156027 4   1148   154881 4 154879 0   311107
Nevada 52387 0 54880 3   1247   53634 3 53633 0   107267
Illinois 2368988 0 2377846 27   4430   2373418 27 2373416 0   4757409
Missouri 962221 0 972201 13   4991   967212 13 967210 0   1934422
All Other States   220   267   220   267  
TOTAL   220   317   11874   270   267   7294910
  KENNEDY WINS   NIXON WINS  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1960

Note: Actual elector vote was 303-219-15 (see here).

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
12
By percent of Voters needed:
3
By votes per electorate needed:
10

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1960 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1956

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  EISENHOWER STEVENSON   Change of votes   EISENHOWER STEVENSON   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Tennessee 462288 11 456507 0   2891   459397 0 459398 11   939404
Nevada 56049 3 40640 0   7705   48344 0 48345 3   96689
Delaware 98057 3 79421 0   9319   88738 0 88740 3   177988
Wyoming 74573 3 49554 0   12510   62063 0 62064 3   124127
Montana 154933 4 116238 0   19348   135585 0 135586 4   271171
New Mexico 146788 4 106098 0   20346   126442 0 126444 4   253926
South Dakota 171569 4 122288 0   24641   146928 0 146929 4   293857
North Dakota 156766 4 96742 0   30013   126753 0 126755 4   253991
Idaho 166979 4 105868 0   30556   136423 0 136424 4   272989
Rhode Island 225819 4 161790 0   32015   193804 0 193805 4   387609
Arizona 176990 4 112880 0   32056   144934 0 144936 4   290173
West Virginia 449297 8 381534 0   33882   415415 0 415416 8   830831
Oregon 406393 6 329204 0   38595   367798 0 367799 6   735597
Louisiana 329047 10 243977 0   42536   286511 0 286513 10   617544
New Hampshire 176519 4 90364 0   43078   133441 0 133442 4   266994
Oklahoma 473769 8 385581 0   44095   429674 0 429676 8   859350
Kentucky 572192 10 476453 0   47870   524322 0 524323 10   1053805
Washington 620430 9 523002 0   48715   571715 0 571717 9   1150889
Minnesota 719302 11 617525 0   50889   668413 0 668414 11   1340005
Virginia 386459 12 267760 0   59350   327109 0 327110 12   697978
Florida 643849 10 480371 0   81740   562109 0 562111 10   1124220
Texas 1080619 24 859958 0   110331   970288 0 970289 24   1955545
Pennsylvania 2585252 32 1981769 0   301742   2283510 0 2283511 32   4576503
All Other States   265   74   265   74  
TOTAL   457   74   1124223   265   266   18571185
  EISENHOWER WINS   STEVENSON WINS  

Note: Actual elector vote was 457-73-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
40
By percent of Voters needed:
38
By votes per electorate needed:
40

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1956 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1952

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  EISENHOWER STEVENSON   Change of votes   EISENHOWER STEVENSON   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Tennessee 446147 11 443710 0   1219   444928 0 444929 11   892553
Delaware 90059 3 83315 0   3373   86686 0 86688 3   174025
Rhode Island 210935 4 203293 0   3822   207113 0 207115 4   414498
Nevada 50502 3 31688 0   9408   41094 0 41096 3   82190
New Mexico 132170 4 105661 0   13255   118915 0 118916 4   238608
Missouri 959429 13 929830 0   14800   944629 0 944630 13   1892062
Wyoming 81047 3 47934 0   16557   64490 0 64491 3   129251
Arizona 152042 4 108528 0   21758   130284 0 130286 4   260570
Montana 157394 4 106213 0   25591   131803 0 131804 4   265037
Utah 194190 4 135364 0   29414   164776 0 164778 4   329554
New Hampshire 166287 4 106663 0   29813   136474 0 136476 4   272950
Virginia 349037 12 268677 0   40181   308856 0 308858 12   619689
Oklahoma 518045 8 430939 0   43554   474491 0 474493 8   948984
Florida 544036 10 444950 0   49544   494492 0 494494 10   989337
Maryland 499424 9 395337 0   52044   447380 0 447381 9   902074
Washington 599107 9 492845 0   53132   545975 0 545977 9   1102708
Texas 1102878 24 969228 0   66826   1036052 0 1036054 24   2075946
Massachusetts 1292325 16 1083525 0   104401   1187924 0 1187926 16   2383398
Pennsylvania 2415789 32 2146269 0   134761   2281028 0 2281030 32   4580969
All Other States   265   89   265   89  
TOTAL   442   89   713453   265   266   18554403
  EISENHOWER WINS   STEVENSON WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
37
By percent of Voters needed:
32
By votes per electorate needed:
34

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1952 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1948

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  DEWEY TRUMAN   Change of votes   DEWEY TRUMAN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Ohio 1445684 0 1452791 25   3554   1449238 25 1449237 0   2936071
California 1895269 0 1913134 25   8933   1904202 25 1904201 0   4021538
Illinois 1961103 0 1994715 28   16807   1977910 28 1977908 0   3984046
All Other States   189   226   189   226  
TOTAL   189   304   29294   267   226   10941655
  TRUMAN WINS   DEWEY WINS  

Note: Actual elector vote was 303-189-39 (see here). Although Thurmond received 39 electoral votes, and won 4 states, the smallest change of popular votes needed to affect the election (listed above) did not need any votes to be changed from his count, so he is not listed in the table. Compare to the 1924 election.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
16
By percent of Voters needed:
8
By votes per electorate needed:
17

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1948 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1944

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  DEWEY ROOSEVELT   Change of votes   DEWEY ROOSEVELT   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Nevada 24611 0 29623 3   2507   27118 3 27116 0   54234
Idaho 100137 0 107399 4   3632   103769 4 103767 0   208321
New Hampshire 109916 0 119663 4   4874   114790 4 114789 0   229625
New Mexico 70688 0 81389 4   5351   76039 4 76038 0   152225
Delaware 56747 0 68166 3   5710   62457 3 62456 0   125361
Montana 93163 0 112556 4   9697   102860 4 102859 0   207355
Michigan 1084423 0 1106899 19   11239   1095662 19 1095660 0   2205223
Maryland 292949 0 315490 8   11271   304220 8 304219 0   608439
Oregon 225365 0 248635 6   11636   237001 6 236999 0   480147
New Jersey 961335 0 987874 16   13270   974605 16 974604 0   1963761
Connecticut 390527 0 435146 8   22310   412837 8 412836 0   831990
Missouri 761524 0 807804 15   23141   784665 15 784663 0   1572474
Minnesota 527416 0 589864 11   31225   558641 11 558639 0   1125529
Pennsylvania 1835054 0 1940479 35   52713   1887767 35 1887766 0   3794793
Illinois 1939314 0 2079479 28   70083   2009397 28 2009396 0   4036061
All Other States   99   264   99   264  
TOTAL   99   432   278659   267   264   17595538
  ROOSEVELT WINS   DEWEY WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
28
By percent of Voters needed:
17
By votes per electorate needed:
25

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1944 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1940

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  WILLKIE ROOSEVELT   Change of votes   WILLKIE ROOSEVELT   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Wyoming 52633 0 59287 3   3328   55961 3 55959 0   112240
Nevada 21229 0 31945 3   5359   26588 3 26586 0   53174
Delaware 61440 0 74599 3   6580   68020 3 68019 0   136374
New Hampshire 110127 0 125292 4   7583   117710 4 117709 0   235419
Idaho 106553 0 127842 4   10645   117198 4 117197 0   235168
New Mexico 79315 0 103699 3   12193   91508 3 91506 0   183258
Wisconsin 679206 0 704821 12   12808   692014 12 692013 0   1405522
Minnesota 596274 0 644196 11   23962   620236 11 620234 0   1251188
Connecticut 361819 0 417621 8   27902   389721 8 389719 0   781502
New Jersey 944876 0 1016404 16   35765   980641 16 980639 0   1974214
Missouri 871009 0 958476 15   43734   914743 15 914742 0   1833729
Illinois 2047240 0 2149934 29   51348   2098588 29 2098586 0   4217935
Ohio 1586773 0 1733139 26   73184   1659957 26 1659955 0   3319912
New York 3027478 0 3251918 47   112221   3139699 47 3139697 0   6301596
All Other States   82   265   82   265  
TOTAL   82   449   426612   266   265   22041231
  ROOSEVELT WINS   WILLKIE WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
31
By percent of Voters needed:
24
By votes per electorate needed:
29

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1940 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1936

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  LANDON ROOSEVELT   Change of votes   LANDON ROOSEVELT   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
New Hampshire 104642 0 108460 4   1910   106552 4 106550 0   218114
Delaware 57236 0 69702 3   6234   63470 3 63468 0   127603
Nevada 11923 0 31925 3   10002   21925 3 21923 0   43848
Wyoming 38739 0 62624 3   11943   50682 3 50681 0   103382
South Dakota 125977 0 160137 4   17081   143058 4 143056 0   296452
Rhode Island 125031 0 165238 4   20104   145135 4 145134 0   311178
New Mexico 61727 0 106037 3   22156   83883 3 83881 0   169136
Arizona 33433 0 86722 3   26645   60078 3 60077 0   124163
Idaho 66256 0 125683 4   29714   95970 4 95969 0   199617
Kansas 397727 0 464520 9   33397   431124 9 431123 0   865514
Utah 64555 0 150246 4   42846   107401 4 107400 0   216677
North Dakota 72751 0 163148 4   45199   117950 4 117949 0   273716
Nebraska 247731 0 347445 7   49858   297589 7 297587 0   608023
Connecticut 278685 0 382129 8   51723   330408 8 330406 0   690723
South Carolina 1646 0 113791 8   56073   57719 8 57718 0   115437
Arkansas 32039 0 146765 9   57364   89403 9 89401 0   179423
Iowa 487977 0 621756 11   66890   554867 11 554866 0   1142733
Virginia 98336 0 234980 11   68323   166659 11 166657 0   334590
Mississippi 4443 0 157318 9   76438   80881 9 80880 0   162090
Maryland 231435 0 389612 8   79089   310524 8 310523 0   624896
Kentucky 369702 0 541944 11   86122   455824 11 455822 0   926203
Massachusetts 768613 0 942716 17   87052   855665 17 855664 0   1840357
West Virginia 325358 0 502582 8   88613   413971 8 413969 0   829945
Tennessee 146520 0 328083 11   90782   237302 11 237301 0   476538
Alabama 35358 0 238196 11   101420   136778 11 136776 0   275744
Georgia 36942 0 255364 12   109212   146154 12 146152 0   293175
Indiana 691570 0 934974 14   121703   813273 14 813271 0   1650897
Michigan 699733 0 1016794 19   158531   858264 19 858263 0   1805098
Pennsylvania 1690200 0 2353987 36   331894   2022094 36 2022093 0   4138426
All Other States   8   265   8   265  
TOTAL   8   523   1948318   266   265   19043698
  ROOSEVELT WINS   LANDON WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
41
By percent of Voters needed:
44
By votes per electorate needed:
41

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1936 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1932

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HOOVER ROOSEVELT   Change of votes   HOOVER ROOSEVELT   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Wyoming 39583 0 54370 3   7394   46977 3 46976 0   96962
Nevada 12674 0 28756 3   8042   20716 3 20714 0   41430
New Jersey 775406 0 806394 16   15495   790901 16 790899 0   1629507
Rhode Island 115266 0 146604 4   15670   130936 4 130934 0   266170
Utah 84795 0 116750 4   15978   100773 4 100772 0   206578
Idaho 71417 0 109479 4   19032   90449 4 90447 0   186625
New Mexico 54217 0 95089 3   20437   74654 3 74652 0   151606
Arizona 36104 0 79264 3   21581   57685 3 57683 0   118251
Colorado 189617 0 250877 6   30631   220248 6 220246 0   457696
Massachusetts 736959 0 800148 17   31595   768554 17 768553 0   1580114
Ohio 1227319 0 1301695 26   37189   1264508 26 1264506 0   2609728
West Virginia 330731 0 405124 8   37197   367928 8 367927 0   743774
Kansas 349498 0 424204 9   37354   386852 9 386850 0   791978
Oregon 136019 0 213871 5   38927   174946 5 174944 0   368808
South Carolina 1978 0 102347 8   50185   52163 8 52162 0   104407
Virginia 89637 0 203979 11   57172   146809 11 146807 0   297942
Michigan 739894 0 871700 19   65904   805798 19 805796 0   1664765
Tennessee 126752 0 259473 11   66361   193113 11 193112 0   390256
New York 1937963 0 2534959 47   298499   2236462 47 2236460 0   4688614
All Other States   59   265   59   265  
TOTAL   59   472   874643   266   265   16395211
  ROOSEVELT WINS   HOOVER WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
39
By percent of Voters needed:
34
By votes per electorate needed:
35

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1932 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1928

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HOOVER SMITH   Change of votes   HOOVER SMITH   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Nevada 18327 3 14090 0   2119   16208 0 16209 3   32417
Utah 94618 4 80985 0   6817   87801 0 87802 4   176603
Arizona 52533 3 38537 0   6999   45534 0 45536 3   91254
New Mexico 69645 3 48211 0   10718   58927 0 58929 3   118014
Virginia 164609 12 140146 0   12232   152377 0 152378 12   305358
North Dakota 131441 5 106648 0   12397   119044 0 119045 5   239867
Texas 367036 20 341032 0   13003   354033 0 354035 20   708999
Tennessee 195388 12 167343 0   14023   181365 0 181366 12   363473
New Hampshire 115404 4 80715 0   17345   98059 0 98060 4   196757
Montana 113300 4 78578 0   17362   95938 0 95940 4   194108
Florida 144168 6 101764 0   21203   122965 0 122967 6   253672
Connecticut 296614 7 252040 0   22288   274326 0 274328 7   553031
North Carolina 348923 12 286227 0   31349   317574 0 317576 12   635150
Maryland 301479 8 223626 0   38927   262552 0 262553 8   528348
Wisconsin 544205 13 450259 0   46974   497231 0 497233 13   1016831
New York 2193344 45 2089863 0   51741   2141603 0 2141604 45   4405626
Missouri 834080 18 662562 0   85760   748320 0 748322 18   1500721
All Other States   265   87   265   87  
TOTAL   444   87   411257   265   266   11320229
  HOOVER WINS   SMITH WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
30
By percent of Voters needed:
31
By votes per electorate needed:
28

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1928 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1924

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Change of Votes   Theoretical  
  COOLIDGE DAVIS LAFOLLETTE   Lost Gained Lost   COOLIDGE DAVIS LAFOLLETTE   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Coolidge Davis LaFollette   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Arizona 30516 3 26235 0 17210 0   2141 2141 0   28375 0 28376 3 17210 0   73961
Nevada 11243 3 5909 0 9769 0   2269 3066 797   8974 0 8975 3 8972 0   26921
New Mexico 54745 3 48542 0 9543 0   3102 3102 0   51643 0 51644 3 9543 0   112830
Maryland 162414 8 148072 0 47157 0   7172 7172 0   155242 0 155244 8 47157 0   358630
Delaware 52441 3 33445 0 4979 0   9499 9499 0   42942 0 42944 3 4979 0   90885
Kentucky 398966 13 374855 0 38465 0   12056 12056 0   386910 0 386911 13 38465 0   815332
Wyoming 41858 3 12868 0 25174 0   14496 14496 0   27362 0 27364 3 25174 0   79900
Utah 77327 4 47001 0 32662 0   15164 15164 0   62163 0 62165 4 32662 0   156990
West Virginia 288635 8 257232 0 36723 0   15702 15702 0   272933 0 272934 8 36723 0   583662
New Hampshire 98575 4 57201 0 8993 0   20688 20688 0   77887 0 77889 4 8993 0   164769
Montana 74138 4 33805 0 66123 0   16117 24218 8101   58021 0 58023 4 58022 0   174423
Rhode Island 125286 5 76606 0 7628 0   24341 24341 0   100945 0 100947 5 7628 0   210115
Idaho 69879 4 24256 0 54160 0   20447 25177 4730   49432 0 49433 4 49430 0   148295
Vermont 80498 4 16124 0 5964 0   32188 32188 0   48310 0 48312 4 5964 0   102917
Oregon 142579 5 67589 0 68403 0   37496 37496 0   105083 0 105085 5 68403 0   279488
Missouri 648486 18 572753 0 84160 0   37867 37867 0   610619 0 610620 18 84160 0   1307958
Nebraska 218585 8 137289 0 106701 0   40649 40649 0   177936 0 177938 8 106701 0   464173
South Dakota 101299 5 27214 0 75355 0   33344 40743 7399   67955 0 67957 5 67956 0   203868
Maine 138440 6 41964 0 11382 0   48239 48239 0   90201 0 90203 6 11382 0   192192
North Dakota 94931 5 13858 0 89922 0   28695 52380 23685   66236 0 66238 5 66237 0   199081
Indiana 703042 15 492245 0 71700 0   105399 105399 0   597643 0 597644 15 71700 0   1272390
All Other States   251   136 13   251   136   13  
TOTAL   382   136 13     571783     251   267   13   7018780
  COOLIDGE WINS   DAVIS WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
34
By percent of Voters needed:
41
By votes per electorate needed:
37

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1924 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1920

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HARDING COX   Change of votes   HARDING COX   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Nevada 15479 3 9851 0   2815   12664 0 12666 3   27194
Arizona 37016 3 29546 0   3736   33280 0 33282 3   66562
New Mexico 57634 3 46668 0   5484   52150 0 52152 3   105406
Delaware 52858 3 39911 0   6474   46384 0 46385 3   94875
Tennessee 219829 12 206558 0   6636   213193 0 213194 12   428626
Wyoming 35091 3 17429 0   8832   26259 0 26261 3   54700
Utah 81555 4 56639 0   12459   69096 0 69098 4   145828
Oklahoma 243831 10 217053 0   13390   230441 0 230443 10   486610
New Hampshire 95196 4 62662 0   16268   78928 0 78930 4   159092
Idaho 88975 4 46579 0   21199   67776 0 67778 4   135624
Vermont 68212 4 20919 0   23647   44565 0 44566 4   89961
Montana 109430 4 57372 0   26030   83400 0 83402 4   179006
Rhode Island 107463 5 55062 0   26201   81262 0 81263 5   167981
Maryland 236117 8 180626 0   27746   208371 0 208372 8   428443
West Virginia 282007 8 220789 0   30610   251397 0 251399 8   509942
Oregon 143592 5 80019 0   31787   111805 0 111806 5   238522
Colorado 173248 6 104936 0   34157   139091 0 139093 6   292053
South Dakota 110692 5 35938 0   37378   73314 0 73316 5   182237
Maine 136355 6 58961 0   38698   97657 0 97659 6   197840
Connecticut 229238 7 120721 0   54259   174979 0 174980 7   365518
Missouri 727162 18 574799 0   76182   650980 0 650981 18   1332800
Indiana 696370 15 511364 0   92504   603866 0 603868 15   1262964
All Other States   264   127   264   127  
TOTAL   404   127   596492   264   267   6951784
  HARDING WINS   COX WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
36
By percent of Voters needed:
43
By votes per electorate needed:
36

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1920 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1916

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HUGHES WILSON   Change of votes   HUGHES WILSON   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
California 462516 0 466289 13   1887   464403 13 464402 0   999603
All Other States   254   264   254   264  
TOTAL   254   277   1887   267   264   999603
  WILSON WINS   HUGHES WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
5
By percent of Voters needed:
5
By votes per electorate needed:
7

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1916 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1912

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Change of Votes   Theoretical  
  TAFT WILSON ROOSEVELT   Lost Lost Gained   TAFT WILSON ROOSEVELT   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Taft Wilson Roosevelt   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Vermont 23332 4 15354 0 22132 0   601 0 601   22731 0 15354 0 22733 4   62841
Nevada 3196 0 7986 3 5620 0   0 1184 1184   3196 0 6802 0 6804 3   20115
Maine 26545 0 51113 6 48495 0   0 1310 1310   26545 0 49803 0 49805 6   129640
Arizona 3021 0 10324 3 6949 0   0 1688 1688   3021 0 8636 0 8637 3   23722
North Dakota 23090 0 29555 5 25726 0   0 1915 1915   23090 0 27640 0 27641 5   86580
Montana 18512 0 27941 4 22456 0   0 2743 2743   18512 0 25198 0 25199 4   79826
Wyoming 14560 0 15310 3 9232 0   1527 2276 3803   13033 0 13034 0 13035 3   42296
Oregon 34673 0 47064 5 37600 0   0 4733 4733   34673 0 42331 0 42333 5   137040
Idaho 32810 0 33921 4 25527 0   2057 3170 5227   30753 0 30751 0 30754 4   105754
Delaware 15998 0 22631 3 8886 0   160 6793 6953   15838 0 15838 0 15839 3   48694
New Mexico 17733 0 20437 3 8347 0   2228 4932 7160   15505 0 15505 0 15507 3   49376
Rhode Island 27703 0 30412 5 16878 0   2706 5415 8121   24997 0 24997 0 24999 5   77894
Illinois 253593 0 405048 29 386478 0   0 9286 9286   253593 0 395762 0 395764 29   1146173
Utah 42100 4 36579 0 24174 0   7816 2295 10111   34284 0 34284 0 34285 4   112386
Kansas 74845 0 143663 10 120210 0   0 11727 11727   74845 0 131936 0 131937 10   365560
Iowa 119805 0 185325 13 161819 0   0 11754 11754   119805 0 173571 0 173573 13   492356
Massachusetts 155948 0 173408 18 142228 0   0 15591 15591   155948 0 157817 0 157819 18   488057
New Jersey 88835 0 178289 14 145410 0   0 16440 16440   88835 0 161849 0 161850 14   432739
West Virginia 56754 0 113197 8 79112 0   0 17043 17043   56754 0 96154 0 96155 8   268828
Nebraska 54226 0 109008 8 72681 0   0 18164 18164   54226 0 90844 0 90845 8   249483
Alabama 9807 0 82438 12 22680 0   0 29880 29880   9807 0 52558 0 52560 12   117959
Georgia 5191 0 93087 14 21985 0   0 35552 35552   5191 0 57535 0 57537 14   121470
All Other States   0   265 88   0   265   88  
TOTAL   8   435 88       220986   0   265   266   4658789
  WILSON WINS   ROOSEVELT WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
27
By percent of Voters needed:
33
By votes per electorate needed:
24

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1912 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1908

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  TAFT BRYAN   Change of votes   TAFT BRYAN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Maryland 116513 8 115908 0   303   116210 0 116211 8   238531
Missouri 347203 18 346574 0   315   346888 0 346889 18   715927
Delaware 25014 3 22055 0   1480   23534 0 23535 3   48007
Montana 32333 3 29326 0   1504   30829 0 30830 9   68822
Wyoming 20846 3 14918 0   2965   17881 0 17883 3   37609
Indiana 348993 15 338262 0   5366   343627 0 343628 15   721126
West Virginia 137869 7 111418 0   13226   124643 0 124644 10   258105
Ohio 572312 23 502721 0   34796   537516 0 537517 23   1121552
All Other States   241   162   241   162  
TOTAL   321   162   59955   241   251   3209679
  TAFT WINS   BRYAN WINS  

Note: Actual elector vote was 321-162. Although Taft (R) won Maryland he only received 2 of their electoral votes; the other 6 went to Bryan (D). For Calculation purposes I assumed all 8 went to Taft.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
21
By percent of Voters needed:
21
By votes per electorate needed:
20

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1908 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1904

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  ROOSEVELT PARKER   Change of votes   ROOSEVELT PARKER   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Nevada 6864 3 3982 0   1442   5422 0 5424 3   12115
Delaware 23705 3 19347 0   2180   21525 0 21527 3   43856
Wyoming 20489 3 8930 0   5780   14709 0 14710 3   30708
Montana 34932 3 21773 0   6580   28352 0 28353 3   64444
Rhode Island 41605 4 24839 0   8384   33221 0 33223 4   68656
New Hampshire 54163 4 34074 0   10045   44118 0 44119 4   90161
Missouri 321449 18 296312 0   12569   308880 0 308881 18   643861
West Virginia 132620 7 100855 0   15883   116737 0 116738 7   239986
Massachusetts 257822 16 165746 0   46039   211783 0 211785 16   445109
New York 859533 39 683981 0   87777   771756 0 771758 39   1617770
All Other States   236   140   236   140  
TOTAL   336   140   196679   236   240   3256666
  ROOSEVELT WINS   PARKER WINS  

Note: Maryland was not included in the calculations, as even though Roosevelt won the state, he only received 1 of the electoral votes, the other 7 went to Parker. This makes the calculations more conservative, as if all eight went to Roosevelt.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
26
By percent of Voters needed:
37
By votes per electorate needed:
27

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1904 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1900

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  MCKINLEY BRYAN   Change of votes   MCKINLEY BRYAN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Utah 47139 3 45006 0   1067   46072 0 46073 3   93189
Delaware 22535 3 18852 0   1842   20693 0 20694 3   41989
Nebraska 121835 8 114013 0   3912   117923 0 117925 8   241430
Maryland 136185 8 122238 0   6974   129211 0 129212 8   264434
Kansas 185955 10 162601 0   11678   174277 0 174279 10   353766
Indiana 336063 15 309584 0   13240   322823 0 322824 15   664094
Ohio 543918 23 474882 0   34519   509399 0 509401 23   1040073
All Other States   222   155   222   155  
TOTAL   292   155   73232   222   225   2698975
  MCKINLEY WINS   BRYAN WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
23
By percent of Voters needed:
28
By votes per electorate needed:
23

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1900 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1896

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  MCKINLEY BRYAN   Change of votes   MCKINLEY BRYAN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Kentucky 218171 13 217894 0   139   218032 0 218033 13   445928
California 146688 9 144766 0   962   145726 0 145728 9   298419
Oregon 48779 4 46739 0   1021   47758 0 47760 4   97414
Delaware 20450 3 16574 0   1939   18511 0 18513 3   38456
West Virginia 105379 6 94480 0   5450   99929 0 99930 6   201757
Indiana 323754 15 305573 0   9091   314663 0 314664 15   637119
All Other States   221   176   221   176  
TOTAL   271   176   18602   222   226   1719093
  MCKINLEY WINS   BRYAN WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
13
By percent of Voters needed:
14
By votes per electorate needed:
16

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1896 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections




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1892

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Change of Votes   Theoretical  
  HARRISON CLEVELAND WEAVER   Gained Lost Lost   HARRISON CLEVELAND WEAVER   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Harrison Cleveland Weaver   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
California 118027 0 118174 9 25311 0   74 74 0   118101 9 118100 0 25311 0   269609
North Dakota 17519 0 0 0 17700 3   91 0 91   17610 3 0 0 17609 0   36118
Delaware 18077 0 18581 3 0 0   253 253 0   18330 3 18328 0 0 0   37235
Idaho 8599 0 0 0 10520 3   961 0 961   9560 3 0 0 9559 0   19407
Kansas 157241 0 0 0 163111 10   2936 0 2936   160177 10 0 0 160175 0   324905
Wisconsin 171101 0 177325 12 10019 0   3113 3113 0   174214 12 174212 0 10019 0   371581
Indiana 255615 0 262740 15 22208 0   3563 3563 0   259178 15 259177 0 22208 0   553613
Illinois 399288 0 426281 24 22207 0   13497 13497 0   412785 24 412784 0 22207 0   873647
All Other States   145   214 6   145   214   6  
TOTAL   145   277 22   24488       224   214   6   2486115
  CLEVELAND WINS   HARRISON WINS  

Note: The 0 popular votes for Cleveland are correct. Also, in the actual election North Dakota in reality split their vote 1-1-1, California 1-8-0, and Oregon 3-0-1.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
14
By percent of Voters needed:
12
By votes per electorate needed:
13

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1892 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1888

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HARRISON CLEVELAND   Change of votes   HARRISON CLEVELAND   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
New York 650338 36 635965 0   7187   643151 0 643152 36   1319748
All Other States   197   168   197   168  
TOTAL   233   168   7187   197   204   1319748
  HARRISON WINS   CLEVELAND WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
8
By percent of Voters needed:
9
By votes per electorate needed:
8

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1888 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1884

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  BLAINE CLEVELAND   Change of votes   BLAINE CLEVELAND   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
New York 562005 0 563154 36   575   562580 36 562579 0   1167169
All Other States   182   183   182   183  
TOTAL   182   219   575   218   183   1167169
  CLEVELAND WINS   BLAINE WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
3
By percent of Voters needed:
2
By votes per electorate needed:
2

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1884 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections




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1880

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  GARFIELD HANCOCK   Change of votes   GARFIELD HANCOCK   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Oregon 20619 3 19955 0   333   20286 0 20288 3   40823
Connecticut 67071 6 64411 0   1331   65740 0 65742 6   132798
Colorado 27450 3 24647 0   1402   26048 0 26049 3   53546
New Hampshire 44856 5 40797 0   2030   42826 0 42827 5   86361
Indiana 232164 15 225522 0   3322   228842 0 228844 15   470672
All Other States   182   155   182   155  
TOTAL   214   155   8418   182   187   784200
  GARFIELD WINS   HANCOCK WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
10
By percent of Voters needed:
13
By votes per electorate needed:
11

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1880 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections




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1876

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HAYES TILDEN   Change of votes   HAYES TILDEN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
South Carolina 91786 7 90897 0   445   91341 0 91342 7   182683
All Other States   178   184   178   184  
TOTAL   185   184   445   182   191   182683
  HAYES WINS   TILDEN WINS  

Note: In theory the 1876 election was decided by just one vote in a special commission created to resolve the election, see Electoral Commission. "With no independents left on the Supreme Court, the final seat on the Electoral Commission was given instead to Justice Joseph Philo Bradley, a Republican. As a result, the GOP held a one-seat majority on the body. Bradley would, in every case, vote with his fellow Republicans to give the disputed electoral votes to Hayes."

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
2
By percent of Voters needed:
7
By votes per electorate needed:
4

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1876 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1872

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  GRANT GREELEY   Change of votes   GRANT GREELEY   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Delaware 11129 3 10205 0   463   10666 0 10668 3   21822
Virginia 93463 11 91647 0   909   92554 0 92556 11   185195
Nevada 8413 3 6236 0   1089   7324 0 7325 3   14649
Florida 17763 4 15427 0   1169   16594 0 16596 4   33190
West Virginia 32320 5 29532 0   1395   30925 0 30927 5   62467
Oregon 11818 3 7742 0   2039   9779 0 9781 3   20147
Connecticut 50314 6 45695 0   2310   48004 0 48005 6   96009
New Hampshire 37168 5 31425 0   2872   34296 0 34297 5   68906
Rhode Island 13665 4 5329 0   4169   9496 0 9498 4   18994
Alabama 90272 10 79444 0   5415   84857 0 84859 10   169716
New Jersey 91656 9 76456 0   7601   84055 0 84057 9   168112
Indiana 186147 15 163632 0   11258   174889 0 174890 15   351196
New York 440738 35 387282 0   26729   414009 0 414011 35   828020
All Other States   173   63   173   63  
TOTAL   286   63   67418   173   176   2038423
  GRANT WINS   GREELEY WINS  

Note: Actual electoral vote was 286-42-18-2-1, as Greeley died November 29, 1872. In the electoral college, the electors who had pledged to Greeley split their presidential electoral votes among four candidates, including 18 for Brown, Green's running mate.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
22
By percent of Voters needed:
30
By votes per electorate needed:
19

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1872 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1868

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  GRANT SEYMOUR   Change of votes   GRANT SEYMOUR   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
California 54588 5 54068 0   261   54327 0 54329 5   108656
Nevada 6480 3 5218 0   632   5848 0 5850 3   11698
Connecticut 50788 6 47844 0   1473   49315 0 49317 6   98632
Arkansas 22112 5 19078 0   1518   20594 0 20596 5   41190
Alabama 76667 8 72921 0   1874   74793 0 74795 8   149594
Nebraska 9772 3 5519 0   2127   7645 0 7646 3   15291
Indiana 176552 13 166980 0   4787   171765 0 171767 13   343532
Pennsylvania 342280 26 313382 0   14450   327830 0 327832 26   655662
All Other States   145   80   145   80  
TOTAL   214   80   27122   145   149   1424255
  GRANT WINS   SEYMOUR WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
15
By percent of Voters needed:
22
By votes per electorate needed:
18

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1868 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1864

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  LINCOLN McCLELLAN   Change of votes   LINCOLN McCLELLAN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Oregon 9888 3 8457 0   716   9172 0 9173 3   18345
Connecticut 44693 6 42288 0   1203   43490 0 43491 6   86981
New Hampshire 36596 5 33034 0   1782   34814 0 34816 5   69630
Rhode Island 13962 4 8470 0   2747   11215 0 11217 4   22432
New York 368735 33 361986 0   3375   365360 0 365361 33   730721
Maryland 40153 7 32739 0   3708   36445 0 36447 7   72892
Minnesota 25055 4 17367 0   3845   21210 0 21212 4   42422
Michigan 79149 8 68513 0   5319   73830 0 73832 8   147662
Pennsylvania 296391 26 276316 0   10038   286353 0 286354 26   572707
All Other States   116   21   116   21  
TOTAL   212   21   32733   116   117   1763792
  LINCOLN WINS   McCLELLAN WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
18
By percent of Voters needed:
20
By votes per electorate needed:
15

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1864 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1860

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The 1860 election is unusual as the candidate who received the most popular votes behind Lincoln only placed fourth in the electoral college.

1860 Party Popular Rank Electoral Rank
Lincoln Republican 1,865,908 1 180 1
Douglas Democrat 1,380,202 2 12 4
Breckinridge Southern Democrat 848,019 3 72 2
Bell Constitutional Union 590,901 4 39 3


Because of this situation, the candidate with the fewest votes needed to be changed to win the election was not Douglas, but Breckinridge. Since there are four main candidates, and because of space constraints, only the votes needed will be shown:

BRECKINRIDGE
 
  Change of Votes From which Candidate?
Virgina 79 Bell
Oregon 136 Lincoln
Tennessee 2316 Bell
California 2932 1,822 from Lincoln; 1,099 from Douglas
Kentucky 6458 Bell
Rhode Island 6651 5,594 from Lincoln; 1,057 from Douglas
Minnesota 10,832 10,491 from Lincoln, 341 from Douglas
Pennyslvania 44,580 Lincoln
TOTAL 73,984

Had Breckinridge won those states, totalling 81 electoral votes, he would have won the election.

For comparison: Douglas would have needed 15 states, totalling 140 electoral votes, and would have required a minimum of 141,524 voters to change their vote in order for him to have won the election.

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
24
By percent of Voters needed:
39
By votes per electorate needed:
21

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1860 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1856

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Change of Votes   Theoretical  
  FREMONT BUCHANAN FILLMORE   Gained Lost Lost   FREMONT BUCHANAN FILLMORE   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Fremont Buchanan Fillmore   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Florida 0 0 6358 3 4833 0   3731 2628 1103   3731 3 3730 0 3730 0   11191
Delaware 310 0 8004 3 6275 0   4554 3141 1413   4864 3 4863 0 4862 0   14598
Illinois 96275 0 105528 11 37531 0   4627 4627 0   100902 11 100901 0 37531 0   239334
New Jersey 28338 0 46943 7 24115 0   9303 9303 0   37641 7 37640 0 24115 0   99396
Indiana 94375 0 118670 13 22386 0   12148 12148 0   106523 13 106522 0 22386 0   235431
All Other States   114   137 8   114   137   8  
TOTAL   114   174 8   34363       151   137   8   599950
  BUCHANAN WINS   FREMONT WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
19
By percent of Voters needed:
35
By votes per electorate needed:
22

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1856 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1852

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  SCOTT PIERCE   Change of votes   SCOTT PIERCE   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Delaware 6293 0 6318 3   13   6306 3 6305 0   12673
North Carolina 39043 0 39788 10   373   39416 10 39415 0   78891
Rhode Island 7626 0 8735 4   555   8181 4 8180 0   17005
Louisiana 17255 0 18647 6   697   17952 6 17950 0   35902
Iowa 15856 0 17763 4   954   16810 4 16809 0   35364
Connecticut 30359 0 33249 6   1446   31805 6 31803 0   66781
Maryland 35077 0 40022 8   2473   37550 8 37549 0   75120
New Jersey 38556 0 44305 7   2875   41431 7 41430 0   83220
Missouri 29984 0 38817 9   4417   34401 9 34400 0   68801
Ohio 152523 0 168933 23   8206   160729 23 160727 0   353188
Pennsylvania 179104 0 198562 27   9730   188834 27 188832 0   387839
All Other States   42   147   42   147  
TOTAL   42   254   31739   149   147   1214784
  PIERCE WINS   SCOTT WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
17
By percent of Voters needed:
27
By votes per electorate needed:
12

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1852 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1848

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  TAYLOR CASS   Change of votes   TAYLOR CASS   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Delaware 6440 3 5910 0   266   6174 0 6176 3   12432
Georgia 47532 10 44785 0   1374   46158 0 46159 10   92317
Louisiana 18487 6 15379 0   1555   16932 0 16934 6   33866
All Other States   144   127   144   127  
TOTAL   163   127   3195   144   146   138615
  TAYLOR WINS   CASS WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
7
By percent of Voters needed:
26
By votes per electorate needed:
9

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1848 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1844

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  CLAY POLK   Change of votes   CLAY POLK   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
New York 232482 0 237588 36   2554   235036 36 235034 0   485882
All Other States   105   134   105   134  
TOTAL   105   170   2554   141   134   485882
  POLK WINS   CLAY WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
6
By percent of Voters needed:
10
By votes per electorate needed:
5

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1844 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1840

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

  Actual Election   Theoretical  
  HARRISON VAN BUREN   Change of votes   HARRISON VAN BUREN   Total Votes in State
  Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.   Pop. Elect. Pop. Elect.  
Pennsylvania 144010 30 143676 0   168   143842 0 143844 30   288026
Maine 46612 10 46190 0   212   46400 0 46402 10   92802
New Jersey 33351 8 31034 0   1159   32192 0 32193 8   64454
New York 226001 42 212733 0   6635   219366 0 219368 42   441543
All Other States   144   60   144   60  
TOTAL   234   60   8174   144   150   886825
  HARRISON WINS   VAN BUREN WINS  

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
9
By percent of Voters needed:
11
By votes per electorate needed:
6

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1840 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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1836

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The 1836 election is unusual as
"It was the only race in which a major political party intentionally ran several presidential candidates. The Whigs ran three different candidates in different regions of the country, hoping that each would be popular enough to defeat Democratic standard-bearer Martin Van Buren in their respective areas. The House of Representatives could then decide between the competing Whig candidates. This strategy failed: Van Buren won a majority of the electoral vote and became President." [Source]
Because of this situation, the method of calculation used was not to make another candidate win, but to find the minimum number of votes needed for Van Buren to lose. He would then not have a majority in the electoral vote and the election would be thrown into the House, as the Whig Party had planned.

VAN BUREN
 
  Change of Votes From Van Buren to which Candidate?
Rhode Island 128 Harrison
Louisiana 130 White
Connecticut 248 Harrison
Mississippi 258 White
Arkansas 524 White
TOTAL 1,288

Had Van Buren lost those states, totalling 24 electoral votes, the election would have gone to the House of Representatives.

The total votes, 1288, is relatively low as it is easier to make the winning candidate not win an election (not caring who else would win), then as to try and make another specific candidate win (as were the other cases solved above)

Ranking of Elections (# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
4
By percent of Voters needed:
19
By votes per electorate needed:
3

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1836 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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Before 1836

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The elections before 1836 were not analyzed, as the majority of the states did not have a 'winner take all' method for electoral votes, but had the state divided into electoral districts, with one elector chosen per district by the voters of that district. (For calculation purposes, those states that did have split electoral votes in the elections since were handled on a case by case basis). This makes calculating the minimum number of votes extremely difficult as you now need to know the popular votes for each electoral district.

See below for an explanation of the electoral districts.

Electoral districts [Source]

Another method for choosing electors is to divide a state into electoral districts, and the voters of each district choose a single elector, much as states are presently divided into congressional districts for choosing representatives. The electoral districts cannot correspond with congressional districts, though, because there are two more electoral districts than congressional districts. As with congressional districts, moreover, this method is vulnerable to gerrymandering.

States which have used Electoral Vote Districting and the years used:

Illinois: 1820, 1824.
Kentucky: 1792, 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824.
Maryland: 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824, 1828, 1832.
Michigan: 1892.
Missouri: 1824.
North Carolina: 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808.
Tennessee: 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824, 1828.
Virginia: 1789, 1792, 1796.






Back to Top BY VOTES BY FRACTION VOTES PER ELECTORATE STATES Rankings




Sorted by Votes
YEAR Total Votes changed
2000 269
1876 445
1884 575
1836 1288
1916 1887
1844 2554
1848 3195
1888 4801
1840 8174
1880 8418
1976 9246
1960 11874
1896 18602
1892 24488
1868 27122
1948 29294
1852 31739
1864 32733
1856 34363
2004 57787
1908 59955
1872 67418
1900 73232
1860 73984
1968 135284
1904 196679
1912 220986
1944 278659
1992 284837
1928 411257
1940 426612
2008 444121
1988 537766
1924 571783
1996 575515
1920 596492
1952 713453
1980 731189
1932 874643
1956 1124223
1936 1948318
1964 2058258
1984 2675811
1972 3174786




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Sorted by fraction of voters
YEAR Total votes changed Total votes from affected states Votes needed to change per 100,000 voters
2000 269 5963110 5
1884 575 1167169 49
1960 11874 7294910 163
1968 135284 77841995 174
1916 1887 999603 189
1976 9246 4403174 210
1876 445 182683 244
1948 29294 10941655 268
1888 4801 921306 521
1844 2554 485882 526
1840 8174 886825 922
1892 24488 2486115 985
1880 8418 784200 1073
1896 18602 1719093 1082
2004 57787 4393542 1315
1992 284837 19556004 1457
1944 278659 17595538 1584
2008 444121 26357829 1685
1836 1288 74985 1718
1864 32733 1763792 1856
1908 59955 3209679 1868
1868 27122 1424255 1904
1988 537766 28151281 1910
1940 426612 22041231 1936
1980 731189 35471192 2061
1848 3195 138615 2305
1852 31739 1214784 2613
1900 73232 2698975 2713
1996 575515 20814874 2765
1872 67418 2038423 3307
1928 411257 11320229 3633
1952 713453 18554403 3845
1912 220986 4658789 4743
1932 874643 16395211 5335
1856 34363 599950 5728
1984 2675811 44448238 6020
1904 196679 3256666 6039
1956 1124223 18571185 6054
1860 73984 1124931 6577
1964 2058258 25770938 7987
1924 571783 7018780 8146
1972 3174786 38262769 8297
1920 596492 6951784 8580
1936 1948318 19043698 10231




Back to Top BY VOTES BY FRACTION VOTES PER ELECTORATE STATES Rankings




Sorted by votes per electorate
YEAR Total votes changed Electoral votes affected Votes per electoral
2000 269 25 11
1884 575 36 16
1836 1288 24 54
1876 445 7 64
1844 2554 36 71
1840 8174 90 91
1916 1887 13 145
1888 4801 33 145
1848 3195 19 168
1960 11874 50 237
1880 8418 32 263
1852 31739 107 297
1892 24488 79 310
1976 9246 29 319
1864 32733 96 341
1896 18602 50 372
1948 29294 78 376
1868 27122 69 393
1872 67418 113 597
1908 59955 89 674
1860 73984 81 913
1856 34363 37 929
1900 73232 70 1046
1912 220986 178 1241
1944 278659 168 1659
1968 135284 79 1712
1904 196679 100 1967
1928 411257 179 2298
1940 426612 184 2319
2004 57787 21 2752
1992 284837 103 2765
1980 731189 222 3294
1988 537766 158 3404
1952 713453 177 4031
1932 874643 207 4225
1920 596492 140 4261
1924 571783 131 4365
2008 444121 97 4579
1996 575515 111 5185
1956 1124223 192 5855
1936 1948318 258 7552
1964 2058258 218 9442
1984 2675811 257 10412
1972 3174786 253 12549




Back to Top BY VOTES BY FRACTION VOTES PER ELECTORATE STATES Rankings




Sorted by influential states
STATE Elections state was influential since 1836 Total Elections participated in since 1836 Fraction
New Mexico 17 25 68%
Delaware 24 44 55%
Nevada 20 37 54%
Montana 14 30 47%
Wyoming 13 30 43%
Oregon 15 38 39%
New Hampshire 17 44 39%
Hawaii 5 13 38%
Idaho 11 30 37%
Arizona 9 25 36%
Rhode Island 15 44 34%
Utah 9 29 31%
Alaska 4 13 31%
North Dakota 9 30 30%
West Virginia 11 37 30%
Connecticut 13 44 30%
Indiana 13 44 30%
Maryland 13 44 30%
Missouri 13 44 30%
New York 13 44 30%
Pennsylvania 12 44 27%
Tennessee 12 44 27%
California 10 40 25%
Illinois 11 44 25%
Ohio 11 44 25%
South Dakota 7 30 23%
New Jersey 10 44 23%
Florida 9 41 22%
Iowa 9 41 22%
Colorado 7 33 21%
Vermont 9 44 20%
Virginia 9 44 20%
Kentucky 8 44 18%
Maine 8 44 18%
Wisconsin 7 41 17%
Nebraska 6 36 17%
Kansas 6 37 16%
Massachusetts 7 44 16%
Minnesota 6 38 16%
Oklahoma 4 26 15%
Louisiana 6 44 14%
Michigan 6 44 14%
Washington 4 30 13%
Alabama 5 44 11%
Arkansas 5 44 11%
Georgia 5 44 11%
North Carolina 5 44 11%
South Carolina 5 44 11%
Texas 4 41 10%
Mississippi 3 44 7%
Washington, DC 0 12 0%




Back to Top BY VOTES BY FRACTION VOTES PER ELECTORATE STATES Rankings




Sorted by number of states needed to switch
STATE Number of
states
Total number of states during election Fraction
2000 1 50 2%
1916 1 48 2%
1888 1 38 3%
1884 1 38 3%
1876 1 37 3%
1844 1 26 4%
1976 2 50 4%
2004 3 50 6%
1948 3 48 6%
1960 5 50 10%
1848 3 29 10%
1880 5 38 13%
1896 6 45 13%
2008 7 50 14%
1840 4 26 15%
1900 7 45 16%
1968 8 50 16%
1856 5 31 16%
1908 8 46 17%
1892 8 44 18%
1836 5 24 21%
1868 8 37 22%
1996 11 50 22%
1992 11 50 22%
1904 10 45 22%
1860 8 33 24%
1864 9 36 25%
1988 14 50 28%
1940 14 48 29%
1944 15 48 31%
1980 17 50 34%
1872 13 37 35%
1928 17 48 35%
1852 11 31 35%
1952 19 48 40%
1932 19 48 40%
1924 21 48 44%
1920 22 48 46%
1912 22 48 46%
1984 23 50 46%
1956 23 48 48%
1972 26 50 52%
1964 26 50 52%
1936 29 48 60%