NewSpace flights in 2013

This year promises to be an important and active one for NewSpace, especially regarding the key task of getting to space. Here is a look at what some rocket vehicle firms are planning for 2013:

SpaceX has become a major trendsetter in NewSpace and the firm has set itself a number of important tasks and goals for the year:

• NASA Cargo Resupply Mission: Two cargo deliveries to the ISS are scheduled for 2013.
   
• Falcon 9 v.1.1 intro: This will become the standard version of the Falcon 9 after the next flight. It has longer propellant tanks and uses the new Merlin 1.D engine.
   
• Falcon 9 launch of first commercial primary payload: The MDA/CSA CASSIOPE spacecraft is currently given as the first SpaceX commercial payload launch of the year (April). This would also be the first launch from the new SpaceX launch facility at Vandenberg.
   
• More Commercial flights: In addition, SpaceX intends to launch the SES-8 geostationary satellite (June) and the first batch of eight Orbcomm OG2 sats (August).
   
• Ramp up rocket production & launch rate: SpaceX has a big manifest of payloads and needs to reach a once-a-month launch rate by the end of 2013 to meet its obligations. Elon Musk has also said he wants to see such a launch rate before he takes SpaceX public.
   
• Falcon Heavy: Roll out the first Falcon Heavy to the pad at Vandenberg by the end of the year.
   
• Commercial Crew Milestones: NASA’s CCiCap agreement (pdf) with SpaceX shows them completing several milestones in 2013, including a pad abort test (i.e. a Dragon capsule blasts away as if from a booster failure) in December 2013.
   
• Grasshopper: Continue incremental testing of this prototype of a reusable first stage booster. They want to go supersonic by the end of the year.
   
• The Mars plan: Elon Musk has hinted, particularly in speeches and interviews in the UK last November, at a long term plan to develop hardware that will lead to low cost access to Mars by the 2020s. The hints include a project with the acronym MCT (Mars Colony Transport?) and the Raptor LOX/Methane high thrust engine. Perhaps Elon will lay out his plan publicly sometime this year.

Orbital Sciences:

• NASA COTS: Orbital needs to complete its COTS demonstration this year. This means test firing the Antares on the pad, fly the Antares with a dummy Cygnus capsule, and then launch a Cygnus to the ISS and dock. The latter flight is currently set for April 5th.
   
• NASA Cargo Resupply Mission: No CRS missions for Orbital are on the schedule but perhaps there will be one this year if the COTS demo goes according to plan.

Sierra Nevada: Drop tests of the Dream Chaser prototype should start sometime in the coming months.
 

Since SpaceShipOne flew to space in 2004, commercial suborbital spaceflights have been right round the corner. We can hope that 2012 was the final corner and in 2013 we will finally see private rocket vehicles going to and from space (+100 km) on a routine basis. Perhaps no paying ticket holders will fly in 2013, but test flights of the manned vehicles could become common.

Commercial suborbital includes both manned and unmanned vehicles. Unmanned vehicles with science/technology/educational payloads could be flying regularly by this spring. The manned vehicles could also take advantage of this market, which could allow them to build up more flight experience before taking “spaceflight participants” on their adventures.

Here are some of the flight activities expected for several commercial reusable suborbital rocket vehicle projects:

• Crew/Passengers:
  • Virgin Galactic: At the end of December 2012, SpaceShipTwo made a glide flight with major components of the propulsion system installed. According to VG management, at least two more glide flights will be made prior to the first powered flight. The test plan beyond that, e.g. the number of powered flights before the SS2 reaches space or the number of test space flights before the SS2 is declared operational, has not yet been publicized.
     
  • XCOR: Assembly of the Lynx Mk. I is underway and the vehicle will probably get off the ground sometime in the first quarter. The Lynx Mark I is limited to a max altitude of 200,000 feet (~61 km) but is a pathfinder for the Mk. II, which will reach 350,000 feet (~106 km). Construction  of the first Mk. II will presumably start in 2013. The Mk. I will be used for commercial operations and might fly paying passengers by the end of 2013.
     
• Unmanned:
  • Armadillo Aerospace: After two flights were aborted at low altitudes (but with successful landings),  Armadillo was reportedly doing a overhaul of their Stig-B vehicle in preparation for resuming flights in early 2013. The Stig-B is licensed by the FAA for commercial space flights and the plan is to carry commercial, science and educational payloads as often as once a month to over 100 km from Spaceport America. (Turnaround could actually be done within a day.)
     
  • Masten Space Systems: Plans for gradually flying their Xaero vehicle to higher and higher altitudes were interrupted when the Xaero was lost last September on its 111th flight due to an engine failure during landing. An upgraded Xaero was already under construction and they should start flying it in 2013. The Xaero is limited to about 30 km. I don’t know the status their higher altitude vehicle, which is reportedly called the Xogdor.
     
  • Blue Origin: The secretive firm flew a suborbital vehicle successfully in May of 2011 but in August 2011 the vehicle was lost as it went supersonic. At the time, Blue said they were “already working on our next development vehicle”. However, no flights were publicized in 2012, though they could have been doing tethered or very low altitude free flight tests. I would expect they will go to high altitudes in 2013. (Their vehicles will be manned eventually but it appears they will fly them unmanned during testing.)

There will no doubt be interesting developments and surprises at other rocket companies such as Stratolaunch Systems, United Launch Alliance (ULA), Garvey Spacecraft, Boeing (regarding CST-100), and Reaction Engines in the year ahead. There will also no doubt be setbacks as well as successes. We’re looking forward to reporting on the whole show.

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