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O'Sullivan no value in wide-open contest

It doesn't matter which of the two Ronnies turns up at the Crucible this year - don't bet on either of them

Snooker quiz: which player has won the most knockout tournaments this season? First clue: it's not Ronnie O'Sullivan or John Higgins. Any ideas? What about if the second clue was that he isn't British or Irish? Chinese sensation Ding Junhui then, right? Wrong. The man who has outperformed everyone is in fact Neil Robertson of Australia. Which goes to prove two things. First, that even the relatively insular indoor world of professional snooker isn't safe from the Aussies. And second, that this year's world championship, which begins on Saturday, is a wide-open contest.

All of which is good news for those who like to bet on such things. Particularly as the draw has been so brutal to some fancied names. Before that though, here are a couple of stats from the last five years to consider. No player has won two championships in that time, with the most successful cueists being reigning champion Graeme Dott and 2002 winner Peter Ebdon, who have also been losing finalists. During this period six other men have contested finals - unthinkable variety to those who grew up in the eras of Steve Davis, Stephen Hendry and Jimmy White.

So who to back? The only place to begin is with two-time winner O'Sullivan. Many may consider opposing the most naturally talented player in history to be a ludicrous concept. But it isn't. In fact, the opposite is true. Betting on Ronnie is fraught with danger and should be avoided. He is chronically bad value at 7-2 because, as he admits himself, whether he wins depends entirely on which of the two Ronnies turns up. If Bad Ronnie walks out at the Crucible for more than one session he simply won't win. The marathon-framed matches (by modern standards anyway) ought to suit him but he has lost to Dott and Ebdon in the last two years. Both are players whose stubborn and gritty style, characterised by their refusal to concede even the most lost of causes, always upsets his flowing rhythm and now seem the prevailing qualities necessary to become champion.

Then there is the draw. O'Sullivan plays Ding in the first round which should be the match of this or any other tournament. Whoever wins that, in all likelihood, faces Robertson (who is 22-1) with the possibility of Higgins in the quarters and Dott in the semis. Which is tough by any standards, particularly as the erratic Mark Williams and occasionally unplayable Stephen Maguire are also in that half of the draw. Not having a bet might be sensible but isn't an option (obviously) so taking a chance on Ding at 14-1 is the call, simply because his price doesn't equate with his incredible talent.

With such talent in the top half of the draw, things look a little lopsided lower down. Therefore it may pay to follow two men, both former champions, in the bottom half who stand out at value prices. There looks to be little in the way of in-form 12-1 shot Shaun Murphy before a potential quarter-final with Ken Doherty, and the same can be said about Ebdon, who is 14-1. He has thrived since moving to Dubai (much like the horses he follows) and he should comfortably make the quarters, where he is likely to meet Hendry. There was a buzz surrounding the seven-time champion a few months ago after he revealed he was practicing solo in the way he did when he was younger. The Scot's brief resurgence has, a UK Championship final aside, ultimately delivered a lot less than it promised. He is a weak second-favourite given that he hasn't won a title for two years.

So in a tournament where concentration and grit has been king in recent years, Murphy and Ebdon have the proven mental credentials - and by backing them both each-way, along with Ding, we would make a profit if one of them reaches the final.

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