Panos

AFTER recent election fiascos in Kenya and Zimbabwe, all eyes are on Angola. On September 5th, 8m-plus registered voters (in a population of some 17m) should cast their ballot to choose a new parliament. They have certainly had to wait for the privilege. Since independence from Portugal in 1975, Angola has had only one multi-party election, in 1992, and it led to a resumption of the horrific civil war that had ravaged the place since independence. The government has repeatedly promised and postponed fresh elections since the end of the conflict in 2002. Only now, it judges, is Angola finally ready.

Decades of war, first pitting Angolans against their Portuguese colonial masters and then against each other, destroyed and traumatised a country that is rich in oil, diamonds and fertile soil. The two sides in the civil war are still the main political parties that will contest these elections: the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) and the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). The latter, for many years a rebel movement, gave up arms after the death of its leader, Jonas Savimbi, in 2002. Now led by the articulate and urbane Isaias Samavuka, it has turned into a proper party. Though 14 groups are registered to contest the election, UNITA is still by far the largest opposition one. Incidents still occur in the oil-rich province of Cabinda, but a peace deal signed in 2006 has eased separatist tensions there.

The poll is expected to be peaceful, but, given Angola's long history of violence and one-party rule, the electoral campaign has not been entirely smooth. MPLA backers have attacked UNITA campaigners in several provinces. In power since independence, the MPLA controls all state bodies, including the national broadcaster, the only source of news outside the capital, Luanda. Many Angolans, especially rural ones, are still wary of publicly backing the opposition. The ruling party has been showering favours on local chiefs, who still hold much influence. Human Rights Watch, a New York-based monitoring group, says the elections cannot be fair.

But even UNITA acknowledges that the violence has been isolated and that it has generally been able to campaign freely. The authorities have agreed to hold the vote over one day instead of two, to assuage fears of manipulation. International observers are already on the ground and thousands of independent local ones are being deployed. Opposition parties have received state money to campaign. Though state radio and television spend much time singing the government's praises, they also run advertisements for the opposition and report on its campaign.

Indeed, after being starved of elections for decades, Angolans now face a flurry of polls. The coming vote is expected to be followed by a presidential one next year and local ones in 2010. President José Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, seems to have developed a sudden taste for democracy and says that Angola will now hold general elections every four years. It may be that the ruling party, with the benefits of incumbency, deep pockets and no immediate prospect of losing its grip on power, has decided that democracy is now a safe option.

Even so, it is unclear whether the MPLA will win by a landslide, which would let it mould a future constitution to its liking, or whether it will face a robust opposition in parliament. Pessimists fear that Angola may end up having its de facto one-party state confirmed by the ballot box; but many, including some in the ruling party, are hoping for a more balanced outcome.

Whoever wins, at stake is the future of what may be sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economy. Angola has come a long way since the end of the civil war. Its economy, starting from a tiny base in 2002, grew by 21% in 2007 and may expand by 16% this year. In the past six years, GDP per person, by some measures, has increased several times over.

Oil has been vital. With production at close to 2m barrels a day, Angola is poised to become sub-Saharan Africa's biggest producer, ahead of Nigeria. It has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China's largest supplier. The government is investing a big chunk of its petrodollars rebuilding roads, railways and houses with the help of Chinese, Brazilian and Portuguese contractors. The days of hyperinflation are over, with prices increasing by about 12% in 2007.

The benefits are plain. Cranes and high-rise buildings crowd Luanda's skyline. Swish housing complexes are mushrooming south of the city. New roads try to ease the city's clogged traffic. The port is congested too, with ships waiting often for weeks in nearby waters to dock. Flights are fully booked far ahead. Businessmen have to reserve months in advance to get a decent hotel room. A stock exchange is expected to start up in the next few months.

Waiting for it all to trickle down

Many Angolans, however, have yet to savour the benefits. Oil and diamonds make up 60% of the economy, most of the government's revenue and almost all the country's exports, but these industries do not employ many people. Most Angolans, despite the rise in average income, remain dirt poor. Though the government is busy building schools and clinics, there are often no teachers and doctors to staff them. In overcrowded slums like Boa Vista, near Luanda's port, filthy water mixes with mountains of uncollected rubbish in the unpaved alleys that run between shacks; unemployment and crime are rife.

Much of the opposition's electoral campaign harps on inequality and corruption, whereas the government prefers to point to new roads and sewerage. Two years ago, it took 16 hours to drive the 420km (261 miles) from Luanda to Waco Kungo in the Kwanza Sul province; lorries often got stuck and could take three weeks. Now, along a new road, it takes five hours.

The government wants to diversify the economy into farms and industry, not only to create jobs but to prepare for when Angola's oil starts to run out. The government itself is investing in agriculture, as in Waco Kungo. A few private commercial farms, often owned by politically well-connected Angolans, have also started up, and foreigners are taking an interest: Chiquita, a banana conglomerate, may invest in Benguela province. Once an exporter of food, Angola now gets most of it from abroad.

Foreign interest is growing apace, but doing business is not for faint hearts. Portuguese colonial administration and years of Marxist management have created a forest of mind-numbing red tape and stifled entrepreneurial spirit. The World Bank says it takes 46 procedures and over 1,000 days to enforce a contract. Angola is near the bottom of the bank's governance rankings. War has left many people with little education, let alone business acumen. The government, directly or through parastatals such as Sonangol, the state oil company, is entangled in much of the economy. Years of central planning dull the minds of the country's host of bureaucrats.

There are signs of progress. Getting approval for an investment is becoming quicker. The government is making its budget and the allocation of oil concessions a bit more transparent. All the same, juicy business opportunities are often restricted to a small elite with links to the ruling party. “In most countries, people get rich in the private sector before going into government,” remarks a local economist. “In Angola, it's the other way round.” Even if these elections turn out reasonably well if not entirely fair, Angola's road to recovery will still be long and bumpy.