How does France count its Muslim population?

The compilation of official statistics based on religious beliefs is not permitted by French law, and the result is that what few estimates there are vary widely. Here is a Q&A explanation of how the system works.

Why do we not know how many Muslims there are in France?

A law dating from 1872 forbids the collection by the state of census data based on questions about religious beliefs, because the Third Republic considered that kind of information to be private. This principle was reaffirmed in a law passed on 6 January 1978 (Article 8) which states that “It is forbidden to collect or process data of a personal nature related to racial or ethnic origins as well as political, philosophic or religious opinions.”

So if there’s a law banning them, where do those few figures we have come from?

That law does not concern surveys and polls, which are free to ask those questions if they wish. However, surveys are by nature based upon a sample of the population only, which means that they cannot be as accurate as a census would be.

Also, the law allows for an exception for public institutions such as the INED or the INSEE whose job it is to collect data on demographics, social trends and other related subjects, on condition that the collection of such data has been authorized by the National Commission for Computer-stocked data and Freedom (CNIL) and the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS.)

What concrete data do we have on the Muslim population of France?

Most of the studies which have asked direct questions concerning people’s religious beliefs have been carried out by poll and survey specialists. Of those, TNS Sofres gave a figure of 3% for 2007 and CSA came up with 4%. Two years later IFOP said the figure was 5.8%, which translates into 3.5 million at the most.

The latest study results came out in October 2010 and they are from the INED and the INSEE, whose joint study was called “Trajectories and Origins.” Those two public institutions concluded that France has 2.1 “declared Muslims.”

Where does the oft-quoted figure of 5 to 6 million Muslims come from?

That is an estimation issued by the Interior Ministry, which deals with questions pertaining to religion. The Minister, Claude Guéant, said “We estimate that there are about 5 to 6 million Muslims in France today” and that figure is the one which the ministry came up with in June 2010.

But the government did not of course have the right to ask direct questions about religion in order to get that figure so it used a criterion of people’s geographic origin as a basis for calculation. The government counted all those people in France who came here from countries with a dominant Muslim population, or whose parents did. Only 33% of those 5 to 6 million people (in other words, 2 million) said they were practicing believers. That figure is the same as that obtained by the INED/INSEE study last year.
 
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» Read the original story in French by Thomas Vampouille

» Credits: muratc3 (Flickr CC)

Par Michael Cosgrove
Traducteur indépendant et invité du Figaro,