From the shackles of poverty to prosperity, Vietnam has managed to break from ruins of wars to a force to be reckoned with in a span of about three decades.
From one of the poorest countries in the World with per capita income below US $100 per year, Vietnam is now a middle income country with per capita income of US $1,910 by the end of 2013.
As in many other developing countries, hunger and poverty in Vietnam has existed for a significant amount of time. Until the 1980's, most Vietnamese population still lived under the poverty line.
However, thanks to the political and economic reform in 1986 and the government's commitment, the status of poverty and hunger in Vietnam has been significantly improved.
The poverty headcount in Vietnam fell from nearly 60 percent in the early 1990's to 20.7 percent in 2010, according to a World Bank report titled "Well Begun, Not Yet Done: Vietnam's Remarkable Progress on Poverty Reduction and the Emerging Challenges".
The country has also made remarkable progress in education. Primary and secondary enrollments for the poor have reached more than 90 percent and 70 percent respectively.
The Global Exchange, an international human rights organization dedicated to promoting social, economic and environmental justice around the world, says in its website that Vietnam has the remarkable record for a developing country of achieving the first of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)-halving poverty over the period 1990-2015 - more than a decade in advance.
According to the most recent progress report published in 2005, the percentage of households below the poverty line (assessed as the cost of adequate food plus non-food essentials) fell from 58 per cent in 1993 to less than 24 per cent in 2004, whilst extreme poverty (food costs alone) dropped from 25 per cent to below 8 per cent.
The UK Department for International Development suggests that 3 million people moved above the poverty line in 2006 alone.
Other key social indicators show similar spectacular improvement to the extent that Vietnam claims to have achieved all of the MDG targets except those for HIV/AIDS and sanitation.
Bloomberg, a renowned weekly business publication says in one of the articles in January this year that while the world's largest emerging economies including Russia, Brazil and China falter, Vietnam's steady economic growth at near 7.0 percent this year will make it among the fastest-growing markets in the world.
In the article titled 'Vietnam's Economy Is an Emerging Market Standout,' the writer says rising domestic demand and booming foreign direct investment are helping the Southeast Asian nation counter global threats that have sparked a wave of stock selling and currency depreciation this year.
That came as the country began a leadership transition on the last week of January would have set the tone for economic reform and growth.
The Communist party's draft socioeconomic plan for 2016 to 2020 shows the nation will target as much as 7 percent average annual expansion.
According to a December 2005 forecast by Goldman Sachs, the Vietnamese economy will become the world's 21st-largest by 2025, with an estimated nominal GDP of $436 billion and a nominal GDP per capita of $4,357.
PricewaterhouseCoopers said in its 2008 forecast, Vietnam may be the fastest-growing of the world's emerging economies by 2025, with a potential growth rate of almost 10 per cent per annum in real dollar terms.
In 2012, HSBC predicted that Vietnam's total GDP would surpass those of Norway, Singapore and Portugal by 2050. Latest economic reports suggest that Vietnam continues with stellar performance in growth and development.
World Bank, for instance, says in its December 2015 update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments that the economy of the Southeast Asian nation has weathered the recent turbulence in the external environment fairly well, reflecting resilient domestic demand and robust performance of export-oriented manufacturing.
Growth further accelerated to 6.5 percent (year-on-year) in the first three quarters of 2015. Against the backdrop of low inflation, monetary policy remains accommodative. Average inflation stood at 0.7 percent in the first ten months of 2015, down from 4.6 percent in the same period last year.
Better macroeconomic conditions helped maintain stability in the banking system, but deep seated vulnerabilities continue to pose risks. Fiscal consolidation remains crucial to contain risks to fiscal sustainability.
On the external front, Vietnam's export performance remains strong, with total export turnover increasing by 9.2 percent from the same period last year. Vietnam's oil and gas potential According to the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA), over the past few decades Vietnam has emerged as an important oil and natural gas producer in Southeast Asia.
It has boosted exploration activities, allowed for greater foreign company investment and cooperation in the oil and gas sectors, and introduced market reforms to support the energy industry. These measures have helped to increase oil and gas production.
Also, the country's rapid economic growth, industrialization, and export market expansion have spurred domestic energy consumption. Recent, successful offshore exploration has contributed to a substantial increase in proved crude oil reserves, which grew to 4.4 billion barrels as of January 2012 from 0.6 billion barrels in 2011, according to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ).
Reserves remained at 4.4 billion barrels in 2013 and 2014. Ongoing exploration activities could increase this figure in the future, as Vietnam's waters remain largely under-explored. Vietnam is currently the third-largest holder of crude oil reserves in Asia, behind China and India.
Vietnam is a net exporter of crude oil, but is a net importer of oil products. With oil consumption increasing year-over-year and overall by more than 70 per cent from 238,400 bbl/d in 2004 to 413,000 bbl/d in 2013, the country must import majority of refined products to satisfy demand.
With global oil glut set to worsen after the end of sanctions against Iran, according to the International Energy Agency February report, oil producing countries will continue to struggle to absorb the shocks.
However, to Vietnam, the situation seems to be different. In an interview with Wall Street Journal, the International Monetary Fund resident representative for Vietnam, Sanjay Kalr said Vietnam is expected to benefit from the decline in global oil prices through several channels.
First, a lower oil price is expected to raise real income and consumption. Second, it is expected to lower the cost of production of final goods, thus raising investment and firm profits.
Third, it would contribute to lower inflation. Fourth, the trade balance is expected to improve. At the same time, budget revenue from oil consumption would go down. For Vietnam, some tax rates have been increased to offset the impact of lower prices on the budget.
