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Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Correspondence information about the author MA Nick Watts
Email the author MA Nick Watts
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Figure 1
An overview of the links between greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and health
The causal links are explained in greater detail in the section about climate change and exposure to health risks.
Figure 2
The direct and indirect effects of climate change on health and wellbeing
There are complex interactions between both causes and effects. Ecological processes, such as impacts on biodiversity and changes in disease vectors, and social dynamics, can amplify these risks. Social responses also ameliorate some risks through adaptive actions.
Figure 3
Exposure to warming resulting from projections of 21st century climate and population change
Changes in summertime temperatures (June–July–August for the northern hemisphere, and December–January–February for the southern hemisphere) between 1995 and 2090, for the RCP8.5 scenario, using the mean of the projections produced by the CMIP5 climate models (A). Change in the mean warming experienced by a person under RCP8.5 (red lines) and RCP2.6 (blue lines), calculated using the 2010 population (dashed lines), and time-varying future population scenarios (continuous lines; B). To encompass the range of possible exposures, we have paired the high-growth SSP3 population scenario with RCP8.5 and the low-growth SSP1 population scenario with RCP2.6. RCP=Representative Concentration Pathway.
Figure 4
Changing exposure to heatwave resulting from projections of 21st century climate and population and demographic change
Change in heatwave frequency between 1995 and 2090 for the RCP8.5 scenario, in which a heatwave is defined as more than 5 consecutive days for which the daily minimum temperature exceeds the summer mean daily minimum temperature in the historical period (1986–2005) by more than 5°C (A). Change in the mean number of heatwave exposure events annually per km2 for people older than 65 years as a result of the climate change in panel A and assuming the 2010 population and demography (B). The same scenario as for panel B, but for the 2090 population and demography under the SSP2 population scenario (C). Time series of the change in the number of annual heatwave exposure events for people older than 65 years with (red line) and without (blue line) population and demographic change (D).
Figure 5
Change in outdoor labour productivity resulting from projections of 21st century climate and rural population change
Change in summer mean (June–July–August for the northern hemisphere, and December–January–February for the southern hemisphere) wet-bulb globe temperature65 for the RCP8.5 scenario (A). Annual loss of outdoor labour productivity due to the climate change in panel A and assuming the 2010 rural population (B). The same scenario as for panel B, but for the 2090 rural population under the SSP2 population scenario (C). Time series of the annual loss of outdoor labour with (red line) and without (blue line) rural population change (D).
Figure 6
Changing exposure to drought resulting from projections of 21st century climate and population change
Change in drought intensity between 1995 and 2090 for the RCP8.5 scenario, defined as the ratio of the mean annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (2080–99, 1986–2005), in which a dry day is any day with less than 1 cm of precipitation (A). Change in the mean number of drought exposure events annually per km2 as a result of the climate change in panel A and assuming the 2010 population (B). The same scenario as for panel B, but for the 2090 population under the SSP2 population scenario (C). Time series of the change in the number of annual drought exposure events with (red line) and without (blue line) population change (D).
Figure 7
Changing exposure to flood resulting from projections of 21st century climate and population change
Change in flood frequency between 1995 and 2090 for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, in which a flood event is defined as a 5 day precipitation total exceeding the 10 year return level in the historical period (1986–2005; A). Change in the mean number of flood exposure events annually per km2 due to the climate change in panel A and assuming the 2010 population (B). The same scenario as for panel B, but for the 2090 population under the SSP2 population scenario (C). Time series of the change in the number of flood exposure events with (red line) and without (blue line) population change (D).
Figure 8
Sources of greenhouse gas emissions (source: IPCC, 2014202)
Allocation of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 (49·5 Gt CO2 equivalent per year) across the five sectors examined in detail in this report (A). The enlarged section of panel A allocates indirect CO2 emission shares from electricity and heat production in the sectors of final energy use. Panel B allocates total emissions (49·5 Gt of CO2 equivalent per year) to show how the total from each sector increases or decreases when adjusted for indirect emissions. Total annual greenhouse gas emissions by groups of gases 1970–2010, and estimated uncertainties for 2010 (whiskers; C). The uncertainty ranges are illustrative, given the limited literature in the field.201 AFOLU=agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. FOLU=forestry, and other land uses.
Figure 9
Per head CO2 emission trends in relation to income for a selection of countries (1990–2008)212,213
*Based on purchasing power parity.
Figure 10
Connections between the global energy system and health impacts
Length of arrows denotes time to impact; width denotes inertia of impact. FDG=flue gas desulphurisation. *Does not include other renewables.
Figure 11
Frequently cited co-benefits of major mitigation techniques
Red arrows between a mitigation technology and an effect indicate that the technology will increase the effect; green arrows indicate an opposite trend.
Figure 12
Energy-related CO2 emissions pathway for the UK in 2010 and 2050 (A), and energy supply pathway for electricity generation for the UK, 2010–50 (B)230
CCS=carbon capture and storage.
Figure 13
Energy-related CO2 emissions pathway for China in 2010 and 2050 (A), and energy supply pathway for electricity generation for China, 2010–50 (B)230
CCS=carbon capture and storage.
Figure 14
Total expenditure on health as proportion of GDP (2011)249
Figure 15
Global health-care expenditure profile (2011)250
PPP=purchasing power parity.
Figure 16
Three pillars of policy
Adapted from Grubb et al, 2014.265
Figure 17
Existing, emerging, and potential regional, national, and subnational carbon pricing instruments (ETS and tax)281
*The RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) is a coordinated cap and trade programme, operating between nine Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States in the USA and Canada. ETS=emissions trading scheme.
Figure 18
Perceptions of the threat of climate change, 2013304
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