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Figures

Figure 1

Potential tipping points in climate systems3

ENSO=El Niño southern oscillation. Boreal forest is the most northern woodland area. Tundra is a vast, mostly flat, treeless Arctic region of Europe, Asia, and North America in which the subsoil is permanently frozen.

Figure 2

Estimated effects of climate change in 2000, by WHO region16

DALY=disability adjusted life year.

Figure 3

Effects of global average temperature change1

*Significant is defined as more than 40%. †Based on average rate of sea level rise of 4·2 mm per year from 2000 to 2080. The black lines link effects caused by climate change, whereas the broken arrows indicate effects continuing with increasing temperatures. Entries are placed so that the left-hand side of the text indicates the approximate level of warming associated with the onset of a given effect.

Figure 4

Density-equalising cartogram

Comparison of undepleted cumulative CO2 emissions by country for 1950–2000 versus the regional distribution of four climate-sensitive health consequences (malaria, malnutrition, diarrhoea, and inland flood-related fatalities).21

The Indian Ocean coastline north of Phuket, Thailand, before and after the tsunami in 2004

First page of article
Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial average temperature. Rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2–3°C rises by 2090 and 4–5°C rises in northern Canada, Greenland, and Siberia. In this report, we have outlined the major threats—both direct and indirect—to global health from climate change through changing patterns of disease, water and food insecurity, vulnerable shelter and human settlements, extreme climatic events, and population growth and migration.

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Linked Articles

  • Editorial

    A Commission on climate change

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60922-3
  • Comment

    Health and climate change: a roadmap for applied research

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60926-0
  • Perspectives

    Anthony Costello: making climate change part of global health

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60929-6
  • Department of Error

    Department of Error

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61194-6
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