These annual population and household estimates are valuable tools for planning for Minnesota counties, cities and townships. They also direct the flow of various state dollars, such as the
(LGA) program.
Identical to the decennial Census counts, these data estimate the population on April 1 of each year. (Note: The U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates use a July 1, midyear, reference date).
What inputs are used to create these population estimates?
The initial base for the estimates is the most recent decennial census. The first step of the estimation process is to update the most recent estimates with any boundary changes in the past year involving population and households. The primary input for the estimates is building permit data for the year preceding the estimate. For areas not covered by building permits, homestead data from the Minnesota Department of Revenue are used. Available electric utility data, births and deaths are also used to evaluate the estimates. Counts for large group quarters such as college dormitories, prisons, jails and regional treatment centers are also collected each year.
Do you create estimates for the years when we have a decennial Census?
No. Every ten years (years that end in -90, -00, -10, etc.), we do not produce population estimates, but rely instead on the decennial counts. The decennial counts appear in our estimate files for those years.
Why is there occasionally a larger change between the last year of the decade and the decennial census year?
We do not smooth the previously published estimates after each decennial census count. Therefore, data users may see a jump between 2009 and 2010, or 1999 and 2000, that is not a true population change. It is simply a case in which our estimate was corrected slightly by the census count. We use the best data available to make our estimates, but occasionally our estimates are a bit further from the on-the-ground reality.
Are these estimates different than those produced by the Metropolitan Council?
No. The State Demographic Center adopts the annual population estimates produced by the Met Council for the 7-county Twin Cities region (comprising Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott and Washington Counties) and the cities and townships within it.
Whom should I contact for more information about your estimates?
Questions about our population and household estimates should be directed to
Jim Hibbs.
Are these estimates different than those produced by the U.S. Census Bureau?
Yes. The
Census Bureau produces annual population estimates for the nation, states, counties and sub-county areas. They use different methods and data for their estimates. In addition, their information about boundary changes and group quarters are not as current as those used by our office. As with our office, the Census Bureau does accept challenges to its estimates. However, their challenge process is more restrictive and limited than that of the MN State Demographic Center.
What if I need population data by age or race and ethnicity?
Our office's population estimates are prepared only for total population and households. Researchers or others who need additional population characteristic data (such as the 18+ population, or the Hispanic/Latino population) will need to use U.S. Census Bureau data--either from the
decennial census (e.g., 1990, 2000, 2010) or its
Population Estimates. American FactFinder contains the
most recent Census Bureau decennial counts and subsequent estimates by 5-year age groups and sex,
population totals by single race groups and Hispanic ethnicity, and
population totals by race groups alone or in combination with other races and Hispanic ethnicity, for Minnesota and its 87 counties. If you have additional questions about which dataset to use, please email
demography.helpline@state.mn.us.
