The end of an era, possibly

By T.J.

SO. FAREWELL then Milo Djukanovic, aged 48, the man who, in one job or another, has run Montenegro since 1989. Today Mr Djukanovic resigned as prime minister and recommended as his successor Igor Luksic, the finance minister and deputy prime minister, as The Economistpredicted recently.

Mr Djukanovic steps down less than a week after his country was accepted as an official candidate for EU membership. Under Mr Djukanovic's guidance, in 2006 it split from Serbia, regaining the independence it had lost in 1918 with the formation of Yugoslavia.

"I want to ease back on the throttle in a more relaxing business environment," said Mr Djukanovic today, before endorsing Mr Luksic. "The ruling party has the right to propose who should lead the government... I am confident Minister Luksic has the capability.” Mr Luksic becomes the acting prime minister, but the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) must vote to confirm him in that position, as must parliament. Parliament is expected to vote on December 29th.

The 34-year-old Mr Luksic has a good reputation at home, and has impressed foreigners who have met him. His age means he is free of any wartime taint. And he is acutely aware of the importance of good public relations. In May he wrote to The Economist to complain that an article we had written about corruption unfairly maligned Montenegro.

Whoever is the next leader of Montenegro, its problems are formidable. The country has been hit hard by the recession. Foreign investment flows have been sharply reduced, exports have tumbled and unemployment is rising. In a new analysis, Veselin Vukotic, a Montenegrin economist, laments the country's "lack of optimism". He contrasts the current gloom with the period from 2006 to 2008, a boom time for the country. Individuals and companies have become highly indebted, he argues, the decline in GDP has reduced the tax base and “balancing the budget has become a serious problem.”

Apart from the economy, the new prime minister will have to work hard to prove to the world, and especially the EU, that it is cracking down on organised crime. Serbian officials and newspapers have recently claimed that Darko Saric, a Montenegrin with Serbian citizenship now being tried in absentia for cocaine smuggling, recently found refuge in the country.

The environment is also a major issue. Montenegrin Greens are seeking a judicial review of plans to build four dams on the Moraca river, which they claim will cause major environmental and economic damage. A big aluminium plant close to Podgorica, the capital, also needs to be tackled. For years it has been a huge economic burden on the country as well as a major polluter.

Assuming that Mr Luksic does attain power—not a foregone conclusion; he has enemies within the DPS—the question is to what extent he can exercise it. It is widely believed in Montenegro that Mr Djukanovic will continue to run the show from his position as head of the DPS, a job he is not relinquishing. Exactly this happened the last time Mr Djukanovic resigned in 2006. (His nominated replacement, Zeljko Sturanovic, fell ill and stood aside in 2008, and Mr Djukanovic reclaimed the formal trappings of power). In today's press conference Mr Djukanovic did not rule out running for president in 2013, nor a return to the premiership.

Mr Luksic stands a fair chance of being able to steer his country in the right direction. But there are many vested interests who will want to exploit him as the nice, fresh face of a country blighted by corruption, and worse. The big question is whether Mr Luksic, or whoever does take control, can break with the past and clean Montenegro up.