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Georgia Had Its Warmest Year On Record In 2019 - Here are 5 ‘So Whats?’

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This week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released data confirming something that many climate scientists like me expected. Our climate continues to change. Early data suggests that 2019 will likely be the 2nd hottest year on record for the globe. NOAA’s data also reveals that it was the second wettest year on record in the United States, and many states saw their hottest year on record.

The average temperature measured across the contiguous U.S. in 2019 was 52.7 degrees F (0.7 of a degree above the 20th-century average)....There were some standouts in 2019, including Alaska, which had its hottest year ever recorded — 6.2 degrees F warmer than the long-term average. Georgia and North Carolina also saw their hottest year on record, while Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin each had their wettest year ever recorded.

NOAA

My home state of Georgia was one of the states that broke a record. Candidly, I cringe when I see climate records reported this way. Many people think this means they can fire up the grill in January or enjoy more mild winters. Experience tells me that people understand extreme events but don’t grasp how a shifting distribution in temperature affects them and society (more on that later). Using the lens of Georgia, here are 5 “So Whats?” concerning record warm temperatures.

Agriculture, wildfires, and other extremes. I was born and raised in Georgia. I appreciate the hard-working agricultural base that helps make the state so great and vital to the nation. I was so heartbroken for farmers devastated by Hurricane Michael in 2018. If you eat anything with peanuts, pecans, blueberries, peaches, or chicken, there is a good chance that it came from Georgia. If you wear cotton clothing, the raw materials may have come from my state also. Crops are very sensitive to temperatures. The Georgia Climate Project, a project enabled by the Ray C. Anderson Foundation, is a non-partisan consortium of scholars and stakeholders that recently released the Georgia Climate Project Roadmap with 40 key questions and assessments of potential threats associated with climate change. The “Agriculture” section points out:

Agriculture, the single biggest industry in Georgia and which in 2015 contributed $74.9 billion in output (8% of Georgia’s $917.6 billion economy) (University of Georgia 2017), is particularly at risk. For instance, a 2007 drought caused an estimated $787 million in agricultural production losses (Flanders et al. 2007). In 2017, blueberries and peach crops were impacted by unusually early spring warming followed by atypical mid-March frost event.

Georgia Climate Project Roadmap

The aforementioned 2007 drought was also accompanied by very active wildfires in Georgia, which illustrates that effects extend beyond temperature change. Extreme events like hurricanes, drought, wildfires or flooding can also disrupt agricultural actives. In 2019, the United States experienced 14 $1+ billion weather or climate disasters (graphic below). Though not on the list this year, losses from Hurricane Michael, Irma, and Matthew are fresh on the minds of Georgians.

More extreme heat, less outside work day hours. A typical response that climate scientists often hear is “climate changes naturally or has cycles.” While somewhat amusing to assume that climate experts don’t understand that our climate changes naturally and has cyclical patterns, it is also an opportunity to explain that naturally-varying processes can be modified by human intervention. You modify naturally-growing grass every time you fertilize your lawn. Baseball players modify their natural home run hitting patterns with the use of steroids. Though changes in the “average” temperature are not as noticeable as 10 days with temperatures above 95 degrees F, a fundamental shift (graphic below from Climate Central) means you are “loading the dice” towards more extreme heat days and less extreme cold days. Yes, the natural cycle still exists, but it is fundamentally being adjusted. This also means the possibility of drier conditions (more drought) and a “confused ecosystem” manifested by longer pollen seasons, changes in bird migration patterns, and so forth.

One example involving work hours may be useful. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has very strict standards for outdoor worker safety. It uses Heat Index, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature and other metrics to establish safe temperature ranges. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recently evaluated exposure to heat stress by outdoor workers. Key findings from their analysis:

Whenever heat stress exceeds occupational exposure limits, workers should be protected by acclimatization programs, training about symptom recognition and first aid, and provision of rest breaks, shade, and water. A Heat Index of 85°F (29.4°C) could be used as a screening threshold to prevent heat-related illness.

CDC

The 2018 National Climate Assessment report found that workers in forestry, outdoor recreation, construction, waste, and remediation services are extremely vulnerable to heat-related deaths in the United States (68% nationally). Sixty percent of the ten states with the highest rates are in the Southeast. The report also projected how changing climate will reduce safe work hours outside (graphic below). These same risks apply to outdoor sports activities like youth football on those Georgia August days (Disclaimer: I have a 12 year old son that plays football so I monitor these things closely).

We like seafood. My colleagues at the University of Georgia (UGA) believe warming waters are relative to the rise of black gill in Georgia shrimp over the past several decades. According to the UGA Skidaway Institute for Oceanography website, “Black gill is a condition in Georgia shrimp that shrimpers blame for reduced harvests.” Mark Frischer and colleagues believe that an annual cycle of shrimp with darkened gills is related to warming waters.

Urban heat stress and energy use. Believe it or not, climate scientists are aware of the urban heat island. Pavement, buildings, and lack of trees in cities tend to cause warmer temperatures in cities. As background temperatures warm due to Greenhouse Gas emissions, city dwellers get a double-whammy. The combination of the urban heat island and climate warming will create heat-related challenges and increased energy usage for air conditioning. According to the Climate Institute, “Cooling makes up more than 70% of peak residential energy demand in parts of the United States.” Ironically, this cooling demand likely drives increased output from power plants. When you consider that a majority of global populations now live in cities, this compound threat should not be ignored.

Tropical diseases in Georgia. Vector-borne diseases are common to Georgia. Mosquitoes can be quite prevalent. However, exotic and tropical diseases like Dengue, Zika, and Malaria are not common in the state. A 2019 study published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases suggests that as warmer temperatures creep out of the tropics, climates like Georgia could possibly host mosquitoes that carry some of these diseases. Bruce Snyder is mosquito expert at Georgia College and State University. He recently told WGXA- Macon, “So as those mosquitoes expand their range and start to move north as it gets warmer, as the climate gets warmer, there's the potential for that virus (Dengue) also to move northward with those mosquitoes.” I don’t know about you but as a parent, I have enough to worry about with my kids. Adding exotic diseases to the list was not part of my plan.

My neighbor Kevin Sokol sums it up best as we stare at the prospect of 70 degree temperatures in the Atlanta area this weekend:

My allergies are really confused this so called Winter....I have to spray for weeds in December that's a problem

Kevin Sokol, Georgia resident
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