Viet Nam’s economy and society situation in 9 months of 2020 took place in the context of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (Covid-19) that is booming globally, seriously affecting all countries’ socio-economic aspects in the world. Major economies have faced the deepest and worst recession in decades. However, by mid-September, when economies restarted after locking down caused by Covid-19 pandemic, the forecast for the world economic growth has shown more positive signs[1]. Global trade, commodity prices are gradually recovering, global stock markets have shown high rise levels thanks to the relaxation of central banks and the gradual reopening of some economies. Capital flows into emerging and developing economies continue to loosen, inflation remains low[2]. Despite dealing with many difficulties, major economies such as the US, Japan, and the European Union are expected to have better growth in last months of 2020 and 2021. For the case of Chinese economy, from negative growth in the first quarter, recovered to positive growth in the second quarter and the third quarter of 2020[3]. Domestically, besides advantages from positive growth results in 2019, the macro economy is stable but continues to face many difficulties and challenges. Covid-19 pandemic complicatedly spread and unpredictable, causing a slow-down growth in almost sectors and fields. International trade disruptions caused bad consequences to production, export and import activities of Vietnam. Unemployment and underemployment rates are high. Additionally, drought and saline intrusion took place early, affecting yields and production.
Under this situation, the Government, the Prime Minister drastically directed ministries, agencies and provinces to focus on synchronous and effective implementation of objectives, tasks and solutions in resolutions of the Party, the National Assembly and the Government, The results achieved by sectors and fields in the third quarter and 9 months of 2020 as follows:
I. ECONOMIC GROWTH
1. Gross domestic product (GDP) in 9 months of 2020 is estimated to increase by 2.12% over the same period last year, although it is the lowest increase of 9 months in the period 2011-2020 but in the context of Covid- 19 pandemic seriously affecting all socio-economic aspects of countries in the world, this is a great success of our country in disease prevention, recovery and economic development.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2020 is estimated to increase by 2.62% over the same period last year, which is the lowest increase of every third quarter in the period 2011-2020[4]. Covid-19 epidemic was strictly controlled, the economy gradually returned to operation in new normal conditions, so GDP in the third quarter of 2020 grew prosperously compared to the second quarter of 2020, of which the agriculture and forestry sector and fishery increased by 2.93%; industry and construction increased by 2.95%; service sector increased by 2.75% and product tax minus subsidies on production increased 0.70%. Regarding the expenditure approach of the third quarter GDP this year, the final consumption increased by 1.19% over the same period last year; the capital formation increased by 5.79%; the exports of goods and services rose by 2.86%; the import of goods and services rose increased by 1.88%.
GDP in nine months of 2020 increased by 2.12% (an increase by 3.68% in the first quarter; 0.39% in the second quarter; and 2.62% in the third quarter), the lowest growth rate of nine months in 2011-2020[5]. In the context of complicated developments in Covid-19, negatively affecting all socio-economic fields, country’s economy continues maintaining positive growth, showing the relevance and precise in direction and management to economic recovery, disease prevention and determination, unanimity of entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister; efforts of people and business community to effectively implement the goal of “both preventing epidemic and developing socio-economic situation”. In the general growth of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 1.84%, contributing 13.62% to the general growth; industry and construction increased 3.08%, contributing 58.35%; the service sector increased by 1.37%, contributing 28.03%.
The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector in nine months of 2020 increased slightly against the same period last year due to effects of climate change, Covid-19 epidemic and African swine fever. Of which, the agricultural sector increased by 1.65%, only higher than the 0.02% and 0.91% increase of nine months of 2016 and 2019 in the period 2011-2020[6], contributing 0.19 percentage points to the increase of the total value added growth rate of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 2.02% but accounted for a low proportion, so it only contributed 0.01 percentage points; the fishery sector increased by 2.44%, higher than the growth rate of 2.11% and 1.81% in 9 months of 2015 and 2016 in the period of 2011-2020[7], contributing 0.08 percentage points.
In the industry and construction sector, the industry in nine months of 2020 increased by 2.69% over the same period last year, much lower than the growth rate of the same period in 2011-2020[8], contributing 0.91 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy. The processing and manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%, lower than the growth rate of the same period of years in the period 2011-2020[9], contributing 1.02 percentage points. The mining industry decreased by 5.35%, decreasing by 0.32 percentage points of the increase in the total added value of the whole economy due to the 14.1% decrease in crude oil production and the decrease of natural gas by 9.1%. The construction industry increased by 5.02%, higher than the 0.01% decrease and 2.78% increase of 9 months of 2011 and 2012 in the period of 2011-2020[10], contributing 0.33 percentage points.
In the first months of 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic seriously affects trade, services and import-export activities. The service sector in 9 months achieved the lowest growth rate of the same period in 2011-2020[11]. In the service sector, the contribution of a number of market service industries has a large proportion to the increase in total value added of 9 months as follows: Wholesale and retail increased by 4.98% over the same period last year, contributing 0.54 percentage points; finance, banking and insurance increased by 6.68%, contributing 0.4 percentage points; transportation and warehousing went down by 4%, making down by 0.14 percentage points; the accommodation and catering services sector decreased by 17.03%, down by 0.76 percentage points.
Regarding to the economic structure in 9 months, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 14.05%; industry and construction accounted for 33.16%; the service sector accounted for 42.73%; product taxes less subsidies on production accounts for 10.06% (The corresponding structure of the same period in 2019 is: 13.21%; 33.97%; 42.75%; 10.07%).
From the expenditure approach of 9-month GDP of 2020, the final consumption increased by 0.86% over the same period in 2019; the capital formation increased by 3.39%; the exports of goods and services rose 0.9%; the imports of goods and services decreased by 1.25%.
2. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector in nine months of 2019 faced many difficulties due to drought salinity; African Swine Fever; Covid-19 epidemic in the world has complicated developments, affecting the production and export and import of agricultural products. Facing these difficulties, the Agriculture sector has had many timely and effective response solutions, so the production results were fair, the winter-spring and summer-autumn rice crops were harvested and the prices were quite well; the production of perennial plants had a good growth rate; poultry husbandry is well developed; the pigs are gradually recovering; shrimp export started to prosper. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector has played a supporting role in the economy in difficult times, ensuring the supply of food, essential goods, and an important department to implement wellbeing during a pandemic.
a) Agriculture
Due to positive crop restructuring, and planting new rice varieties with high economic value, gradually replacing traditional rice varieties, the country’s winter-spring rice yield this year reached 66.4 quintals/ha, increasing 0.9 quintal/ha compared to the winter-spring crop of 2019. Total country’s winter-spring paddy production reached 19.9 million tons, a drop of 593.5 thousand tons, in comparison with that of over the previous winter-spring crop because the cultivated area this year reached 3,024.1 thousand hectares, a decrease of 3.2%, of which 30.6 thousand hectares of rice were damaged by drought and salinity, so the winter-spring rice harvest area was only 2,993.5 thousand hectares, down 130.6 thousand hectares compared to the previous year.
As of mid-September, the total winter paddy cultivated area in the country reached 1,512.6 thousand hectares, an equal to 97.1% of over the same period last year. This year, the country cultivated 1,944.8 thousand hectares of summer-autumn paddy, a decrease of 64.8 thousand hectares compared to that of the previous year, of which the Mekong River Delta reached 1,523.9 thousand hectares, a decline of 45.2 thousand hectares. As of September 15, 2020, the localities harvested 1,618.7 thousand hectares of summer-autumn paddy, holding 83.2% of the cultivated area and an equal to 91.7% of over the same period last year. The country’s summer-autumn paddy yield this year was estimated at 55.7 quintals/hectare, an increase of 0.9 quintals/hectare compared to that of over the same period in 2019, due to the decrease in cultivated area, the total production of the summer-autumn paddy in 2020 was estimated at 10.83 million tons, a drop of 119.3 thousand tons.
As of mid-September, the country cultivated 909.4 thousand hectares of maize, equaling 97% of over the same period last year; 101.6thousand hectares of sweet potatoes, equaling 92.2%; 163.4 thousand hectares of groundnut, equaling 95.2%; 41 thousand hectares of soybeans, equaling 90.1%; 992.4 thousand hectares of vegetables and beans, equaling 100.4%.
Production of some fruit and perennial industrial plants was recorded to increase, in comparison with that of over the same period last year: of which cashew production was estimated at 333.8 thousand tons, rising by 17.8%; rubber reached 840.8 thousand tons, rising by 5.7%; pepper reached 268.3 thousand tons, rising by 1.8%; mango reached 798.5 thousand tons, rising by 5.5%; dragon fruit reached 799.2 thousand tons, rising by 8.4%; oranges reached 526.5 thousand tons, rising by 4.4%; pomelos reached 523.1 thousand tons, rising by 7%.
Buffalo population in September continued to decrease by 2.2% compared to that of over the same period in 2019 due to low economic efficiency. Cattle population grew quite well, increased of 2.5%. African swine fever has been basically controlled, pig herds are gradually recovering but the re-herding is still slow. It’s estimated in September, pig population increased by 3.6% compared to that of over the same period in 2019; production of pig living weight in 9 months was estimated at 2,483.1 tons, falling by 3.2%. The total herd and poultry production continued to increase due to the expansion of the livestock sector and the well-developed corporate sector. The total poultry population in September increased by 5.7% compared to that of over the same period in 2019; production of poultry living weight in 9 months was estimated at 1,056.7 thousand tons, rising by 11.4%; production of poultry eggs in 9 months reached 10.7 billion eggs, rising by 10.8%.
As of September 23/9/2020, the country was no longer recorded cases of blue ear disease; avian influenza was still in Hai Phong, Nghe An, Quang Ngai, Vinh Long, Ca Mau; foot and mouth disease remained in Cao Bang, Quang Tri, Kon Tum, Dak Lak; African swine fever was reported in 251 communes, 92 districts of 27 provinces and central cities[12] for less than 21 days
b) Forestry
Generally in 9 months, the concentrated forests area was estimated at 169.5 thousand hectares, decreasing by 2.6% of over same period last year (in the third quarter reached 63.2 thousand hectares, falling by 6.9%); number of dispersed trees reached 66.5 million, falling by 1.3% (in the third quarter reached reached 22 million, rising by 0.5%); production of wood reached 12,050 thousand m3, an increase of 1.8% ( in the third quarter reached 4,529 thousand m3, rising by 1.5%); Firewood production reached 14.4 million ste, falling by 0.3%(in the third quarter reached 4.6 million ste, rising by 0.9%).
Generally in nine months this year, the devastated forest area was 1,291 hectares, decreasing by 60.2% of over the same period last year, of which the fired forest area, was 603.7 hectares, falling by 78.2%; area of cut and destroyed forest was 687.3 hectares, rising by 45.1%.
c) Fishery
Generally, in nine months this year, the total fishery production was estimated at 6,131.6 thousand tons, rising by 1.6% of over the same period last year (in the third quarter of 2019 reached 2,261.6 thousand tons, rising by 1.4%), of which fish reached 4,424 thousand tons, rising by 0.9%; shrimp reached 769.4 thousand tons, rising by 5%; other fisheries reached 938.2 thousand tons, rising by 2.6%.
Aquaculture production in 9 months was estimated at 3,218 thousand tons, rising by 1.4% in comparison with that of over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 1,242.9 thousand tons, growing by 0.9%), of which fish reached 2,229.2 thousand tons, falling by 0.4%; shrimp reached 640.9 thousand tons, a growth of 5.8%. Production of black tiger shrimp in nine months this year was estimated at 204.7 thousand tons, a growth of 0.6% compared to that of over the same period last year (the third quarter was estimated at 86 thousand tons, equivalent to the same period last year; production of white leg shrimp reached 398.2 thousand tons, an increase of 7.8% (the third quarter was estimated at 197.7 thousand tons, a growth of 9%).
Production of fishery catching in 9 months was estimated at 2,913.6 thousand tons, increasing by 1.9% of against the same period last year (in the third quarter was estimated at 1.018,7 thousand tons, up 2%), of which fish reached 2,194.8 thousand tons, a growth of 2.2%; shrimp reached 128.5 thousand tons, rising by 1.3%.
3. Due to negative impacts of the Covid-19 epidemic, the growth rate of value added of industry sector in the third quarter of 2020 was only 2.34% over the same period last year. Totally, in nine months, the value added of industry increased by 2.69%, of which the manufacturing increased by 4.6% and was the 9-month lowest growth rate in 2011-2020. However, due to the well-controlled epidemic diseases, sectors of the economy are entering a state of new normal conditions, industrial production in September 2020 was brighter than the previous month, hopeing to soon recover and grow again in the last months of the year.
The growth rate value added of the whole industry in nine months was estimated to increase by 2.69% over the same period last year (increased by 5.1% in the first quarter; 1.1% in the second quarter; by 2.34% in the third quarter). Of which, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%; electricity increased 3.7%, contributing 0.18 percentage points; water supply, sewerage waste management and remediation increased 4.4%; the mining and quarrying decreased by 5.35% (due to the sharp drop in crude oil production by 14.1% and natural gas by 9.1%).
Generally, in nine months, IIS of manufacturing increased by 2.6% over the same period last year (it increased by 9.5% in the same period in 2019). Index of industrial inventory of manufacturing as of September 30, 2020 was estimated to increase by 24.3% over the same period last year (it was 17.2% in the same period in 2019). The average index of industrial inventory of manufacturing in 9 months of this year reached quite high at 75.6% (72.1% in the same period last year).
4. In 9 months of 2020, the total number of newly established enterprises and re-operated enterprises reached 133.6 thousand enterprises, increase of 2.9% compared to the same period in last year. Results on the business tendency survey of the manufacturing enterprises showed that enterprises continue to be optimistic about the business production situation in the fourth quarter of 2020 with 81% of enterprises which would be more stable and better.
a) Enterprise registration status[13]
The effects of the Covid-19 epidemi and September of 2020 coincided with the seventh lunar month, that the people were unwilling to start and run business so in September 2020, the whole country had 10.3 thousand newly established enterprises with a registered capital of 203.3 trillion VND and the total number of registered employees of 83 thousand employees, a decrease of 23.1% in the number of enterprises, a decrease of 29.6% in the registered capital and a decrease of 13.8% in the number of employees compared to last month[14]. Generally, in 9 months of this year, the whole country had nearly 99 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 1,428.5 trillion VND and the total number of registered employees of 777.9 thousand employees, a cut down of 3.2% in the number of enterprises, an increase of 10.7% in number the registered capital and a decrease of 16.3% in the number of employees compared to the same period in last year. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 9 months achieved 14.4 billion VND, climbing up 14.4% compared to the same period in last year. If including 2,173.4 trillion VND of the additionally registered capital of 29.5 thousand enterprises that recorded upward adjustment of capital, the total additional registered capital in the economy in 9 months of this year was 3,601.9 trillion VND, rose by 19.2 compared to the same period in last year. In addition, there were 34.6 thousand re-operated enterprises, an increase of 25.5% over the same period last year, bringing the total number of newly registered enterprises and re-operated enterprises in 9 months to 133.6 thousand enterprises, increase of 2.9% compared to the same period in last year.
The number of enterprises ceased for a certain period of time in 9 months this year was 38.6 thousand enterprises, increasing by 81.8% compared to the same period last year; 27.6 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, a decline of 2.4%; nearly 12,1 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 0.1%; 36.5 thousand enterprises not operating at the registered address increased by 39.6%.
b) Business trends of the enterprises
Results of the business tendency survey of manufacturing enterprises in the third quarter of 2020 showed that: 32.2% of enterprises assessed that the business production situation in the third quarter of this year was better previous quarter; 31.9% of enterprises faced difficulties and 35.9% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable[15]. For expected outcome of the fourth quarter of 2020, 45.6% of enterprises presented that the tendency would get better; 19% of enterprises predicted that it would be more difficult and 35.4% of enterprises said that the business production situation would be stable.
5. Trading and service activities in September showed signs of rebounding, commodity market and people’s lives gradually stabilized, the sights and tourism in many provinces/cities reopened. Generally, in nine months of 2020, international visitors arrival to our country reached nearly 3.8 million, down 70.6% over to the same period last year, of which more than 97% were international visitors in the first quarter of 2020[16] .
Gross retail sales of consumer goods and services in September were estimated at 441.4 trillion VND, up 2.7% over that in the previous month and up 4.9% over that in the same period last year. Generally for nine months, gross retail sales of consumer goods and services reached 3,673.5 trillion VND, rising by 0.7% over that in the same period last year, if excluding the price factor, the decrease was 3.6%, of which in the third quarter, gross retail sales of consumer goods and services were estimated to reach 1,305.8 trillion VND, going up by 14.4% over that in the previous quarter and up 4.5% over that in the same period last year. By economic activities, retail sales of goods in 9 months reached 2,907.1 trillion VND, accounting for 79.1% of the total and expanding 4.8% over that in the same period last year; revenue from accommodation and catering services were estimated at 369.3 trillion VND, accounting for 10.1% and decreased by 15%; revenue from tourism and traveling services was estimated at 14.2 trillion VND, accounting for 0.4% and decreased by 56.3%; revenue from other services was estimated at 383 trillion VND, accounting for 10.4% and decreased by 5.6%.
International visitors to Viet Nam in September were estimated at 13.8 thousand persons, reduced 15.5% over the previous month and decreased 99,1% compared to the same period last year. Generally for nine months, international visitors to Viet Nam was estimated at 3,788.5 thousand, moving down by 70.6% compared to the same period last year, of which visitors coming by airway gained 3,056.9 thousand persons, accounting for 80.7% of the number of international visitors to Viet Nam, dropping by 70%; by roadway achieved 587 thousand arrivals, accounting for 15.5% and going down by 76.4%; by seaway achieved 144.6 thousand arrivals, accounting for 3.8% and decreasing by 23.8%. In nine months, international visitors to Viet Nam from Asia recorded 2,770.2 thousand, accounting for 73.1% of the total, decreasing by 72.7% over the same period last year; visitors from Europe reached 668.3 thousand, down 58.6%; visitors from the America gained 235.2 thousand arrivals, down 68.1%; visitors from Oceania reached 102.6 thousand, dropping by 68.9%; visitors from Africa reached 12.2 thousand, reducing by 64.5% over the same period in 2019.
6. Operation of credit institutions system in 9 months of 2020 was negatively affected by Covid-19 epidemic, as of September 22nd, 2020 the credit growth reached a low level of 5.12%. However, the State Bank of Vietnam adjusted the operating rate to stabilize the money and foreign exchange markets. Insurance business has grown well, ensuring interests of insurance participants. Total capital mobilization of stock market for the economy in 9 months increased by 1.43% over the same period last year.
As of September 22nd, 2020, the total liquidity increased by 7.74% compared to the end of 2019 (at the same time in 2019 was 8.41%); capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 7.7% (at the same time in 2019 was 8.79%); credit growth of the economy reached 5.12% (at the same time in 2019 was 8.51%).
Insurance premium revenue of the whole market in 9 months of 2020 was estimated to increase by 14% over the same period last year (in the third quarter of 2020, up 12%), of which life insurance premium revenue increased by 17%; non-life insurance increased by 7%.
In September, Vietnamese stock market showed signs of recovery thanks to good control over Covid-19 epidemic and enterprise’s business and production activities gradually returned to normal situation. Generally, in nine months, the total capital mobilization for the stock market was estimated at 228.8 trillion dong, rose by 1.43% over the same period last year.
On the stock market, as of the morning of September 24th, 2020, the VNIndex reached 912.5 points, increased by 3.5% compared to the end of the previous month and down 5% compared to the end of 2019; As of September 18th, 2020, market capitalization reached 4.263 trillion VND, down by 2.8% compared to the end of 2019; Average trading value reached 7.607 billion VND per session, up 19% from the previous month. In the bond market, there are currently 496 listed bond codes with a listing value of 1.272 trillion VND, went up by 7% from the end of 2019. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the average trading volume reached 170.348 contracts per session, an increase of 92% compared to the previous year average.
7. The realized investment in the first 9 months of 2020 increased by 4.8% compared to the same period in 2019, the lowest increase in the period 2016-2020 due to the negative impact of Covid-19 epidemic on all activity. However, investment capital of the State budget in September and 9 months of year 2020 both reached the highest increase in the years 2016 – 2020[17]. Investment capital in the State sector tends to increase, which is the result of accelerated implementation and disbursement of public investment, in order to maintain economic growth in the context of the well-controlled Covid-19 epidemic in Viet Nam.
Generally, for 9 months of 2020, the realized investment at current prices estimated at 1,445.4 trillion VND, increasing by 4.8% over the same period last year and equaling 34.7% of GDP, of which: the investment capital of the state sector reached 484.8 trillion VND, representing 33.5% of the total capital and increasing by 13.4% compared to the same period last year; the non-state sector gained 641.5 trillion VND, accounting for 44% and rising by 2.8%; the foreign direct investment recorded 319.1 trillion VND, accounting for 22.1% and decreasing by 2.5%.
The foreign direct investment from the beginning of the year to 20th September, 2020 including registered capital, adjust investment capital and total value of capital contribution reached 21.2 billion USD, decrease 18.9% compared to the same period in 2019. Of which, 1,947 newly licensed projects with a registered capital of 10.4 billion USD, an decrease of 18.9% in the number of projects and a decrease of 5.6% of registered capital as compared to the same period in 2019; 789 turns of projects which were licensed in the previous years registered to adjust investment capital with the additional capital of 5.1 billion USD, a growth of 6.8 over the same period last year; 5,172 turns of capital contribution and share purchases of foreign investors with a total value of capital contribution of 5.7 billion USD, a drop of 44.9% over the same period in 2019, including 1,296 turns of capital contribution capital, share purchase increased charter capital of the enterprise with the value of contributed capital of 2.1 billion USD and 3,876 turns of foreign investors repurchased domestic shares without increasing the charter capital with a value of 3.6 billion USD. Foreign direct investment capital in 9 months reached 13.8 billion USD, a drop of 3.2% over the same period last year
8. The Covid-19 epidemic continued to be controlled nationally, some localities in the epidemic area loosen measures of social distancing, gradually restore economic activities that have affected revenue and expenditure of State budget in September 2020.
The State budget revenue from January to September 15th, 2020 was estimated at 902.5 trillion VND, equaling 59.7% of the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenue reached 747.3 trillion VND, equal to 59.1%; crude oil revenue was 26.3 trillion VND, equaling 74.9%; budget balance revenue from import and export was 128 trillion VND, equaling 61.6%.
The State budget expenditure from January to September 15th, 2020 was estimated at 1.036,4 trillion VND, equaling 59.3% of the yearly estimate, of which recurrent expenditure was 716.3 trillion VND, equal to 67.8%; expenditure on investment and development was 235.3 trillion VND, equaling 50%; interest payment withnessed 78.4 trillion VND, equaling 66.3%.
9. In the context of the Covid-19 epidemic complicated developments in the world disrupting international trade, Vietnam’s export activities remained positive growth, in which the role of the economic sector emerged domestically, while export and import turnover in 9 months both increased over the same period last year. Total import and export turnover of 9 months in 2020 was estimated at 388.73 billion USD, with a export turnover of 202.86 billion USD, a rise of 4.2% over the same period last year, import turnover of 185.87 billion USD, reduce by 0.8% over the same period last year. The trade balance of goods in 9 months saw an estimated trade surplus of 16.99 billion USD.
a) Export and import of goods[18]
In the context of the Covid-19 epidemic complicated developments in the world disrupting international trade, Vietnam’s export activities remained positive growth, in which the role of the economic sector emerged. domestically. Total import and export turnover of 9 months in 2020 was estimated at 388.73 billion USD, a rise of 1.8% over the same period last year, with a export turnover of 202.86 billion USD, increased by 4.2%. The domestic economic sector has a high increase of 20.2% in 9-month export turnover value and 4.7% increase in imports. The trade balance of goods in 9 months saw an estimated trade surplus of 16.99 billion USD.
Export of goods
Export turnover in September 2020 was estimated at 27.5 billion USD, reduced by 0.7% over the previous month. In the third quarter of 2019, export turnover reached 80.07 billion USD, grew by 11% over the same period in 2019 and rose by 34.4% compared to the second quarter of this year (rose by 26.6% compared to the first quarter of this year). There were 10 products with export turnover of more than 1 billion USD, accounting for 74.8% of total export turnover. Generally for nine months in 2020, the export turnover was estimated at 202.86 billion USD, rose by 4.2% over the same period in 2019, of which, the domestic economic sector continues to be the driving force for the growth of the country’s export activities was 71.83 billion USD, went up by 20.2%, accounting for 35.4% of total export turnover; the FDI sector (including crude oil) attained 131.03 billion USD, reduce by 2.9%, sharing 64.6%. In 9 months of 2020, there were 30 products with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, contributing 91.3% to the total export turnover (5 products with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 59.8%).
Import of goods
Import turnover in September 2020 was estimated at 24 billion USD, expanded by 5.6% over the previous month. In the third quarter of 2019, the import turnover reached 68.54 billion USD, rose by 3% over the same period in 2019 and grew by 18.5% compared to the second quarter of this year (grew by 15.2% compared to the first quarter of this year). 14 products had import turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 73.4% of the total import turnover. Generally for nine months of 2020, the import turnover was estimated at 185.87 billion USD, decreased by 0.8% over the same period in 2019, of which the domestic economic sector reached 82.35 billion USD, went up by 4.7%; the FDI sector gained 103.52 billion USD, edged down by 4.8%. There were 32 imported products with turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 88.3% of total import turnover.
The trade balance of goods in August witnessed a trade surplus of 5 billion USD[19]; trade surplus for 8 months was 13.5 billion USD; trade surplus in September was estimated at 3.5 billion USD. Generally, in nine months of 2020, trade surplus was estimated at 16.99 billion USD[20], of which the domestic economic sector saw a trade deficit of 10.52 billion USD; the FDI sector (including crude oil) saw a trade surplus of 27.51 billion USD.
b) Export and import of services
In nine months of 2020, export turnover of services was estimated at 5.47 billion USD, went down by 62.3% over the same period in 2019 (the third quarter reached 787 million USD, decreased by 84.2%), of which travel service gained 2.5 billion USD (accounting for 45.1% of the total turnover), decreased by 70.9%; transportation service reached 665 million USD (accounting for 12.2%), decreased by 79.6%. Service import turnover in nine months of this year was estimated at 13.63 billion USD, edged down by 14.4% over the same period last year (the third quarter went down by 16.3%), of which transport services gained 5.9 billion USD (accounting for 43.3% of total turnover ), decreased by 0.3%; tourism services reached 3.2 billion USD (sharing 23.6%), declined by 33.4%. Trade deficit of services in nine months of 2020 was 8.16 billion USD, equaling 149.72% of the service export turnover.
10. Consumer price index in September, 2020 increased by 0.12% over the previous month and by 0.01% over December last year – all of them were the lowest level in the period of 2016-2020[21], mainly due to the price of education service prices were adjusted to increase in line with the roadmap to approach market prices, price of electricity for living increased because the need to use electricity in hot weather, price of domestic rice went up due to Vietnam rice export’s price reached highest level since 2011. On average, in 9 months of 2020, the consumer price index increased by 3.85% over the same period last year. The average merchandise term of trade of 9 months of 2020 decreased by 0.72% as compared to the same period of 2019, reflecting unfavorable Vietnam goods export’s price to abroad compared to the price of imported goods from abroad to Vietnam.
a) Consumer price index
In the increase of 0.12% of CPI in September 2020 compared to the previous month, there were 6/11 major groups of goods and services with the increase in price index, of which education rose the highest. CPI in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 0.92% compared to the previous quarter and rose by 3.18% compared to the third quarter of 2019. Average core inflation of 9 months of 2020 grew by 2.59% compared to the same period of 2019.
b) Gold price index and US dollar
Domestic gold prices fluctuated according to the world gold prices. Gold prices fell because investors sold to take profits after a period of strong gold price increases, the US economy recovered better than expected after being affected by the Covid-19 epidemic and the dollar index increased against major world market currencies. Domestically, gold price index in September 2020 decreased by 0.33% over the previous month; an increase of 32.37% compared to December 2019; increased by 30.33% over the same period last year.
The US dollar price index in September 2020 decreased by 0.05% over the previous month; went up by 0.12% compared to December 2019 and dropped 0.17% over the same period of 2019.
c) Producer price index and merchandise import and export price index
Producer price index (PPI) for agriculture, forestry and fishery products in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 1.43% compared to the previous quarter and by 10.99% compared to the same period last year; similarly, PPI for industry products increased by 0.81% and went down by 0.95%; PPI for services increased by 1.12% and fell by 1.51%. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the PPI for agriculture, forestry and fishery products increased by 8.41% over the same period in 2019; the PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.54%; the PPI for services decreased by 0.58%.
Merchandise export price index in the third quarter of this year increased by 0.17% over the previous quarter and decreased by 1.55% over the same period last year; similarly, merchandise import price index increased by 0.03% and fell by 0.95%. Merchandise term of trade[22] in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 0.14% compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 0.6% over the same period last year. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the merchandise export price index decreased by 1.33% over the same period in 2019; the merchandise import price index of goods decreased by 0.62%; the merchandise term of trade decreased by 0.72%.
II. SOME SOCIAL ISSUES
1. Although people’s living in the 9 months of 2020 was affected by Covid-19 epidemic, the people’s living was still generally stability due to the direction of all authorities levels and people’s efforts.
In September and the third quarter of this year, there was no locality that reported hunger. Generally for 9 months of 2020, the whole country had 16.5 thousand households suffering from food shortage, fell by 75.5% over the same period last year, corresponding to 66.5 thousand persons suffering from food shortage, dropped 75.6%. To overcome hunger problem, from the beginning of the year, all administrative levels, sectors and organizations from the central to local levels supported these households with 733.6 tons of food.
Social security continued to be paid attention by authorities. According to the preliminary report, the total value of gifts had been given to social policy beneficiaries, national devotees and social protection beneficiaries in 9 months were about 9.4 trillion VND, including 3.5 trillion VND of gifts and supports the policy beneficiaries; 2.7 trillion VND of support poor households and 3.2 trillion VND to help hunger and other social relief. Besides, more than 24 million health insurance cards, free health care books/cards were donated to policy beneficiaries in the whole country. As of September 15th, 2020, more than 12.5 trillion VND was disbursed nationwide to support people in difficulty due to the Covid-19 epidemic.
2. Education and training work has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, however, the Education sector has promptly proposed coping options; appropriate directions and instructions to ensure safety for pupils and teachers, and implement the school year plan.
The 2020 national high school graduation exam will be held later than every year and the exam is organized into 2 rounds. Number of candidates registered to take part in the contest is 900.1 thousand people, of which 26,014 candidates from 27 provinces, took part in the second exam.
At the time of starting the school year 2020-2021, the whole country had 5.4 million preschool children (776.9 thousand kindergartens and more than 4.6 million nursery education); more than 17.5 million pupils of general education, including 8.7 million primary school pupil; more than 6 million lower secondary school pupil and 2.8 million in upper secondary schools. Generally for nine months, vocational training enrolled nearly 1.4 million new students, of which 300 thousand students were enrolled for college and intermediate level; 1,065 thousand students were enroll for elementary level and other vocational training programs.
3. The Covid-19 pandemic continues to develop complicatedly In Vietnam, disease situation have basically been controlled and returned to normal.
Generally, in 9 months, the whole country had 65,046 cases of hemorrhagic fever (7 cases died); 28,462 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease; 404 cases of virus encephalitis (9 cases died); 11 cases of meningococcal disease and 2,924 cases of scarlet fever suspected for measles, of which 247 cases were positive for measles; 198 cases were positive for diphtheria (4 cases died).
As of September 18, 2020 the total number of alive HIV-infected persons over the country was 210,754; 97,066 cases turned to AIDS and the number of person died of HIV/AIDS as of above time- point was 99,019 persons.
Generally, in nine months of 2020, there were 65 food poisoning cases in the whole country, poisoned 1,667 persons, of which 21 died.
4. Due to the influence of the Covid-19 epidemic, many physical training and sports activities have to be postponed and delayed; Library activities have many innovations to ensure the maintenance of information provision.
The protection and promotion of cultural heritages are very interested and implemented by provinces, many cultural and historical relics have been invested in repairing and embellishing in association with exploitation and tourism development. Library activities have many innovations, actively, proactively, creatively, deploy new services, promote the provision of remote services, online services to attract readers to use the library’s services during the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Generally, in 9 months, the country has organized 11 sports tournaments and 10 professional training courses for sports collaborators and guides. The preparations for the two major Sports Games, the 3st Southeast Asian Games and the 11th ASEAN Para Games will take place in Vietnam in 2021 is being actively implemented in a drastic and urgent spirit so that all stages of the organization can be completed on time.
5. Traffic accident situation in 9 months decreased on all 3 criteria due to the effectiveness of Decree No. 100/2019/ND-CP dated December 30, 2019 of the Government on regulations on handling major violations in the field. railway and railway transportation.
In 9 months of this year, the whole country had 10,354 traffic accidents, including 5,980 traffic accidents of less serious or more and 4,374 traffic collisions, making 4,876 deaths, 3,127 injuries and 4,482 persons slightly injured. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in 9 months of this year decreased by 18.3% (the number of traffic accidents from less serious or more decreased by 11%; the number of traffic collisions decreased by 26.6%); the number of deaths decreased by 13.8%; the number of injured people decreased by 13.9% and the number of minor injuries fell by 25.1%. On average, in 9 months, the whole country had 38 traffic accidents a day, including 22 traffic accidents of less serious or more and 16 traffic collisions, causing 18 deaths and 11 injuries and 16 people were slightly injured.
6. Natural disasters, environmental pollution and fire and explosion significantly affect the lives of people in some localities.
Natural disasters in 9 month of this year caused 96 people died and missed, 292 injured; 142.6 thousand hectares of rice and more than 67.8 thousand hectares of crops damaged; 1,806 houses collapsed, swept away; more nearly 101.2 thousand houses unroofed and damaged. The total lost caused by natural disasters in 9 months was estimated at 7.2 trillion VND (of which due to saline intrusion was 3.4 trillion VND, accounting for 47% of the total damage).
Generally, in 9 months, 10,715 environmental violations were detected in the whole country, of which 9,658 cases were handled with a total fine of 143,6 billion VND. There were 2,254 cases of fires and explosions in the whole country, killing 79 people and injuring 131 people, the damage was estimated at over 416,2 billion VND.
GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE OF VIETNAM
[1] The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasted global economic growth in 2020 to decrease by 4.5%, adjusted to increase by 1.5 percentage points compared to the forecast released in June 2020. Similarly, the international credit rating organization Fitch Ratings and Oxford Economics adjusted its forecast for global GDP growth in 2020 to a decrease of 4.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; Scotiabank Bank forecasted economic global growth in 2020 to decrease by 3.9%.[2] In the report on September 17, 2020, the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimated the Service Trade Measure at 95.6 (baseline 100) but there were signs of recovery in major service industries. The indexes representing container shipping (92.4), construction (97.3) and the Purchasing Managers’ Index-PMI (97.0) also showed signs of recovery.[3] The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted that US economic growth in 2020 will be negative 5.3%; Japan will be negative 5.4%; Eurozone will be negative 8% and maintains its 1.8% growth forecast for 2020 for China and adjusted 0.3 percentage point increase for 2021 growth forecast to 7.7%.[4] The 3rd quarter GDP growth in 2011-2020 reach 6.21%; 5.39%; 5.54%; 6.07%; 6.87%; 6.56%; 7.38%; 6.82%; 7.48%; 2.62%.[5] GDP growth rate of 9 months over the same period in 2011-2020 are respectively: 6.03%; 5.10%; 5.14%; 5.53%; 6.53%; 5.99%; 6.41%; 6.96%; 7.04%; 2.12%.[6] The growth rate of value added in the agricultural sector in 9 months over the same period in 2011-2020 is respectively: 4.03%; 2.28%; 2.11%; 2.01%; 1.78%; 0.02%; 2.08%; 2.85%; 0.91%; 1.65%.[7] The growth rate of added value of the fisheries sector in 9 months over the same period in 2011-2020 respectively: 3.46%; 4.06%; 2.95%; 6.15%; 2.11%; 1.81%; 5.48%; 6.37%; 6.24%; 2.44%.[8] The growth rate of industrial value added in nine months compared to the same period in 2011-2020 respectively is: 9.54%; 8.50%; 4.80%; 5.58%; 9.86%; 7.40%; 6.95%; 8.99%; 9.61%; 2.69%.[9] The growth rate of added value in the processing and manufacturing industry in 9 months over the same period in 2011-2020 is respectively: 13.48%; 8.74%; 6.58%; 7.09%; 10.15%; 11.20%; 12.77%; 12.95%; 11.48%; 4.60%.[10] The rate of increase / decrease in added value of the construction industry in 9 months compared to the same period in 2011-2020 are respectively: – 0.01%; 2.78%; 5.31%; 6.61%; 9.0%; 9.10%; 8.30%; 8.76%; 8.33%; 5.02%.[11] The growth rate of added value in the service sector in 9 months over the same period in 2011-2020 respectively: 7.09%; 6.47%; 6.43%; 5.94%; 6.10%; 6.67%; 7.21%; 6.75%; 6.92%; 1.37%.[12] Ha Noi, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Ha Giang, Cao Bang, Bac Kan, Tuyen Quang, Lao Cai, Lang Son, Dien Bien, Lai Chau, Son La, Hoa Binh, Nghe An, Quang Tri, Quang Nam, Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Tien Giang, Tra Vinh, Dong Thap, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau.[13] Source: National Enterprise Registration Information System, Business Registration Management Agency, Ministry of Planning and Investment.[14] Compared to the same period last year, the number of enterprises decreased by 12.6%; the registered capital rose by 45%; the number of employees decreased by 15%.
[15] The corresponding indices of the second quarter of 2020: 27.3% of enterprises assessed a better the business production situation than the previous quarter; 40.8% of enterprises faced difficulties and 31.9% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable.[16] International visitor to Viet Nam in the first quarter of 2020 reached 3,686.8 thousands arrival; 2nd quarter was 57.7 thousands arrival.[17] The growth of investment capital of State budget in September over the same period of previous last year of 2016-2020 was respectively: 15.7%; 8.1%; 17.1%; 11.4%; 48%. The growth of investment capital of State budget in 9 months over the same period of previous last year of 2016-2020 was respectively: 13.1%; 6.6%; 11.4%; 6.3%; 33.3%.[18] Data in September 2020 meeting by an interdisciplinary team consisting of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the State Bank of Vietnam, the General Department of Customs and the General Statistics Office meeting estimates based on export turnover figures, import as of September 27, 2020 of the General Department of Customs combined with market information, the proportion and trend of export and import of goods. The General Statistics Office received and updated the report on the afternoon of September 28, 2020.[19] Trade surplus in August was estimated at 3.5 billion USD.[20] Of which, in nine months of 2020, trade surplus to the EU reached 15.2 billion USD, went down by 7.6% compared to the same period last year; trade deficit from China was 24.9 billion USD, declined by 7.8%; trade deficit from South Korea was 18.3 billion USD, declined by 10.7%; trade deficit from ASEAN was 4.8 billion USD, grew by 7.8%.[21] CPI growth rate in September over the previous month of period of 2016-2020: 0,54%; 0,59%; 0,59%; 0,32%; 0,12% respectively. CPI growth rate in September over December last year in period of 2016-2020: 3,14%; 1,83%; 3,2%; 2,2%; 0,01% respectively.[22] Merchandise export price index/ Merchandise import price index.