The things we learned on October 20, 26 days after the election were:
– New Zealand will have a Labour-New Zealand First coalition Government that is supported by the Green Party on votes of supply and confidence.
– New Zealand First will have four ministers in the new cabinet and one under-secretary.
– The Greens will have three ministers outside cabinet and one parliamentary under-secretary.
– Labour and the New Zealand First have yet to agree the exact text of their policy agreements or the exact identity of the new ministries and ministers. That will be announced in coming days. A formal formation of the Government and the swearing in of ministers is expected next week.
– The Green Party’s delegates voted almost unanimously in favour of supporting the Labour-New Zealand First coalition Government. Only three of the 150 delegates dissented.
– The Green Party also said they had yet to agree on the final details on policies and ministries.
– Bill English wished Ardern all the best as the next Prime Minister and said he had not made a decision about whether to continue as National leader. A National caucus meeting will be held next week..
– National will have 56 seats in Opposition, the largest by any one party in the history of MMP.
How it played out
Kingmaker Winston Peters and his New Zealand First party of nine MPs chose to form a coalition Government with the Labour Party’s 46 MPs and a Green Party with eight MPs that will support it with a supply and confidence agreement.
That combination of 63 MPs on key votes was enough to beat National’s 56 MPs and one ACT MP. Previous MMP Governments have been led by the largest party and Winston Peters baulked at forming a Government in 1996 that included Green MPs. He also refused to allow Green MPs to be ministers in the 2008 Government he formed with Labour.
This time around Peters chose to change the Government and opted to allow the Government to include Green ministers. He said had never had a bad word for Greens leader James Shaw.
Jacinda Ardern, 37, learned she would be Prime Minister while watching a television broadcast of Peters announcing his decision. As recently as August 1, she was the deputy leader of a party destined to lose the election with just 24 percent support. Ardern lifted Labour to 36.9 percent by September 23.
Peters gets (some of) his policies and some ministries
Winston Peters announced in the Beehive Theatrette shortly before 7 pm that New Zealand First has chosen to go into a coalition Government with the Labour Party.
He said he expected the Green Party would support the Government with a supply and confidence agreement. The Green Party is due to hold a wider vote of its 150 delegates later this evening. It needs 75 percent support to ensure the deal is approved.
Peters said the policy and ministerial details had yet to be hammered out. Ardern also said those details would be finalised and announced in coming days.
Ardern later confirmed that New Zealand First would have four ministries inside cabinet and one under-secretary role outside cabinet. Green Leader James Shaw said he expected the Green Party would have three ministries outside cabinet and one under-secretary role. He confirmed the Greens expected to support the Government on supply and confidence.
“Early next week we’ll be in a position to sign and release the agreements with both NZ First and the Greens,” she told a news conference.
Reserve Bank Act changes coming
Peters he said he expected the Reserve Bank Act would be changed and that the New Zealand dollar had been overvalued. It immediately fell almost one cent to 70.6 USc on the announcement. He said he had not secured his preferred policy of moving to a Singaporean model for monetary policy, which targets a currency level rather than an interest rate level.
Ardern and her likely Finance Minister Grant Robertson later confirmed there would be reforms to the Reserve Bank Act. She said she expected Labour’s migration policy of reducing net migration by 20,000 to 30,000 would be implemented. That would suggest New Zealand First was unable to get its preferred cuts of closer to 60,000 net migrants per year than Labour’s 30,000 maximum.
Peters said Labour and New Zealand First had agreed to implement its platform of restricting foreign buying of property, but did not give details. He also said migration would be restricted, but gave no detail about about the size or nature of those restrictions.
Ardern later said she had agreed to implement Labour’s policy of banning foreign buyers of existing residential properties, which fell short of Peters’ proposal for a full ban on foreign buying of both houses and freehold land across the country.
English gracious in defeat
National Leader Bill English said at a news conference in the foyer of the Beehive that he wished Ardern the best and hoped New Zealanders including the 44 percent who had voted for National would wish the new government the best to pursue the opportunities the country had.
He said he had not made a decision about his own future and expected the National caucus to have a meeting next week.
He said he was naturally disappointed with the decision and complimented Ardern on her performance.
“It was a fairly remarkable performance given 12 weeks ago she was the deputy leader of a failing party.” he said.
