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CONFLICT IN THE BALKANS: THE OVERVIEW

CONFLICT IN THE BALKANS: THE OVERVIEW; NATO PRESSES BOSNIA BOMBING, VOWING TO MAKE SARAJEVO SAFE

CONFLICT IN THE BALKANS: THE OVERVIEW; NATO PRESSES BOSNIA BOMBING, VOWING TO MAKE SARAJEVO SAFE
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August 31, 1995, Section A, Page 1Buy Reprints
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After 40 months of awkward hesitation, NATO today stepped squarely into the midst of the Bosnian war, pounding Bosnian Serb targets with air strikes across the country and declaring that the bombardment would not stop until Sarajevo was secure.

The onslaught unfurled in at least five waves, beginning in the early-morning darkness and proceeding throughout the day. Large fires burned in Vogosca, a Serbian-held suburb northwest of Sarajevo, and Lukavica, the Serbs' main barracks southwest of the Bosnian capital, as NATO bombs struck ammunition and fuel dumps.

The fires followed a night illuminated by flashes as NATO fighters hit Bosnian Serb positions all around Sarajevo. Residents of the city, who in three years under siege had grown deeply cynical about the intentions of the West, watched in stunned amazement.

More than 200 sorties were flown by NATO planes, including at least 48 American aircraft, in the largest military action undertaken by the Western alliance since it was established in 1949, said Franco Veltri, a spokesman at NATO's southern command in Naples.

A French Mirage jet flying close to the Bosnian Serb stronghold of Pale was shot down by the Serbs and the two pilots ejected. French Government officials said tonight that the pilots had been located and had not been captured so far. The French Defense Ministry refused to disclose details about whether a rescue mission had been dispatched.

Other warplanes returned safely to their bases after attacking Bosnian Serb air defense radar and communication sites, ammunition depots and command posts throughout Bosnia. Radovan Karadzic, the leader of the separatist Serbs, reacted to the onslaught with an initial show of defiance. "The people's will for a state will now harden," he said. "The West's calculations on the Serbs are wrong."

Dr. Karadzic's statement was consistent with repeated warnings from the Serbs, who made up one-third of Bosnia's prewar population, that they are a stubborn, proud people who would resist any attack. History lent some credence to such notions. But the defiant talk would have carried much more weight before the abrupt fall in recent months of Western Slavonia and Krajina, regions of Croatia whose ethnic Serbian leaders had vowed to fight to the last man, only to flee in haste in their Mercedes-Benzes.

Although NATO said the bombing had inflicted considerable damage, it was too early to say whether the attacks had really crippled the Bosnian Serbs' ability to wage war or impose terror in and around Sarajevo. Some Serbian shelling of the Bosnian capital persisted through the day.

It was also not clear how many casualties there were among the Serbs, but the European Union said three diplomats and two of their aides on a monitoring mission in Serb-held Bosnian territory had been killed either by the bombing or in a Serbian reprisal.

British, French and Dutch artillery recently installed on Mount Igman near Sarajevo joined the assault, firing at least 600 rounds against Bosnian Serb gun emplacements.

Such a sweeping attack had often been threatened by NATO and the United Nations. But the political will to go through with it had never previously coalesced among the Western allies, who feared being sucked into a Balkan war. There had also been concern about the reaction of Russia, a traditional ally of the Serbs. Moscow condemned the bombing today, although in terms that were scarcely indignant or threatening.

Differences between the United Nations and NATO have often paralyzed the West's response to the war, but with almost all United Nations peacekeepers out of Bosnian Serb territory and so no longer vulnerable to hostage-taking, greater unity of purpose was achieved.

Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Secretary General of the United Nations, said today that the NATO raids had his "full support." He added, however, that "the United Nations is not at war with the Serbs."

"The aim of today's action is to insure that what happened on Monday never occurs again," said Maj. Myriam Sochaki, a United Nations spokeswoman, referring to the Bosnian Serb shelling of the Sarajevo market area that killed 37 people and provided the final catalyst for a sweeping Western military reaction that the exhausted people of Sarajevo thought would never come.

But the true objective of the ongoing NATO assault clearly went further than an attempt to silence the Serbian guns that have subjected Sarajevo to random terror for well over three years. It is a big stick wielded to press weakened Serbian leaders to accept a peace deal.

The Administration's chief negotiator in the Balkans, Richard C. Holbrooke, was in Belgrade today, where he held talks on new American peace proposals with Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian President. Unconfirmed reports suggested Dr. Karadzic might also be in Belgrade.

No details of the talks in Belgrade were revealed. But for the first time, Serbia and the Bosnian Serbs have indicated they want to negotiate as a team.

President Clinton made it clear that he wanted peace talks to move ahead despite the NATO attack.

Even Bob Dole, the Senate Majority Leader, a frequent critic of the Administration's Bosnia policy, applauded the NATO action, but asserted that Congress deserved a lot of the credit.

Moral outrage has long abounded over the loss of more than 10,000 civilian lives to the Serbian shelling of Sarajevo. But never before has the political calculation been made that the Bosnian Serbs were weary enough and isolated enough to be forced to accept of a peace plan.

In effect, the penetrating attack today, which NATO said had crippled the Serbs' air-defense systems, amounted to a calculated gamble that the conflict had been contained and that force would now work to bring peace where diplomatic talk without the backing of any credible threat had repeatedly failed.

"The Bosnian Serbs, especially after the events of the last 12 hours, ought to have concluded that there is no military victory in sight for them, the tide of the war has turned against them, their dream of a Greater Serbia is no more and it's time to face the responsibility of peace," said Nicholas Burns, a State Department spokesman, in an interview with CNN.

Certainly, the isolation of the Serbs has never been more apparent. A major concern of United Nations commanders and the Atlantic alliance has always been that any concerted attack on the Serbs in Bosnia would draw the Serbian-dominated Yugoslav Army into the conflict, thus widening and intensifying the war.

But in the last four months, Serbian-held land in Croatia has been overrun without the Yugoslav Army lifting a finger.

A single conclusion seemed possible to Western military officers and officials: Whatever his exploitation of Serbian nationalism to seize and consolidate his power in the late 1980's, President Milosevic has become a confirmed dove, unready to fight for Serbs in Croatia or Bosnia.

"It has become clear that the Bosnian Serbs were more vulnerable than we had thought because Milosevic means it when he says Serbia is not interested in war," said one senior Western official in Paris.

Of course, there are dangers in this calculation. There are officers in the Yugoslav Army, particularly those with family ties to Serbs in Croatia or Bosnia, who have been incensed by Mr. Milosevic's policies and might now be moved to resist them.

The Bosnian Serbs, whose brinkmanship through provocation after provocation had always paid off until now, might perceive the NATO attack as an enormous provocation and be moved to defiance at a time when they seemed to be moving toward a belated attempt at conciliation.

Dr. Karadzic said on Tuesday for the first time that a proposed territorial split in Bosnia -- offering 49 percent of the land to the Serbs and 51 percent to a Muslim-Croat federation -- could be accepted as a basis for further negotiation. The Serbs currently hold close to 70 percent of Bosnia.

But patience with the Serbs appears to have run out. In Paris, Charles Millon, the French Defense Minister, said: "We've had enough. We have proposed negotiations to the Bosnian Serbs by all means. They refused. Now all menace to the population of Sarajevo must be eliminated. At the very least, the Serbs must withdraw their arms 20 kilometers from Sarajevo and the end of the siege should be guaranteed." Twenty kilometers is 12.5 miles.

Lieut. Gen. Bernard Janvier, the commander of United Nations forces in the former Yugoslavia, sent a letter early today to Gen. Ratko Mladic, the commander of the Bosnian Serbs, informing him that the NATO attack would continue until threats to "safe areas" were removed, and the Bosnian Serbs had moved out their heavy weapons and accepted a cease-fire.

But General Mladic told the Bosnian Serb television that he rejected General Janvier's demand that heavy weapons be removed.

After the fall of the Muslim enclaves of Zepa and Srebrenica over the last six weeks, the "safe areas" of Sarajevo, Gorazde, Tuzla and Bihac remain. Serbian positions near Gorazde and Tuzla were also attacked today, United Nations officials said.

In practice, said Alexander Ivanko, a United Nations spokesman in Sarajevo, NATO and United Nations commanders want the reimposition of the heavy weapons exclusion zone around Sarajevo. This was imposed for the first time after another mortar shell hit the Sarajevo market in February 1994, killing 68 people, but it gradually evaporated this year as NATO's threats proved to be empty.

The Muslim-led Bosnian Government, which has tried for more than three years to persuade NATO to stage an attack of the magnitude undertaken today, responded with undiluted enthusiasm.

"These air raids restore the credibility of the international community," said the Bosnian Prime Minister, Haris Silajdzic.

Lieut. Gen. Rupert Smith, the commander of United Nations forces in Bosnia, appears to have played a decisive role in the change in the approach on the part of world powers.

In the place of his predecessor's repeated warnings about staying on the right side of the "Mogadishu line" -- that is, the line between peacekeeping and involvement in a war that was crossed during the troubled United Nations mission in Somalia -- General Smith has focused remorselessly on his mandate, one that allows the use of force to protect cities like Sarajevo and insures the delivery of aid.

In so doing, he and the United Nations mission in general have now crossed the line. But their timing appears shrewd. The possibility seems real that the Bosnian Serbs, increasingly under the influence of Mr. Milosevic since the debacle of the Croatian Serbs, may now see compromise as the best tactic to avoid further setbacks.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 1 of the National edition with the headline: CONFLICT IN THE BALKANS: THE OVERVIEW; NATO PRESSES BOSNIA BOMBING, VOWING TO MAKE SARAJEVO SAFE. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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