Slowly, cautiously, but unmistakably, thousands of Iraqis who moved abroad to escape the violence are going home, stemming an exodus that has seen 4.2 million people leave since the 2003 war. According to the Iraqi government, 46,000 returned from abroad to Baghdad in October - the first month of the new school year, though it has not produced a statistical breakdown.
Iraq's displacement and migration minister, Abdul Samad Sultan, said this week that 1,600 people were returning every day. The UNHCR, the world body's refugee agency, said yesterday it could not confirm the figure because it has no permanent access to the border - though a day of monitoring suggested it could be true. But a spokesperson in Geneva said: "For the first time Iraqis are actually discussing return, which was not the case a few months ago."
Baghdad is keen to highlight the numbers coming back, to demonstrate that the nine-month-old US-Iraqi "surge" to quell sectarian violence is working. But the UN agency and the Iraqi Red Crescent both counted 2.3 million internally displaced people during September. Both are sceptical about the figures from the government.
Strained resources
Iraqi officials say most returnees come from Syria, where an estimated 1.4 million refugees have fled. Their return is attributed to a combination of improving security, especially in Baghdad, Iraqi official encouragement, and the unwillingness of Syria to continue to pick up the tab for an exodus which has put a huge strain on its resources.
Iraq's embassy in Damascus is reported to be offering free trips to those who want to go back. Adnan al-Shourifi, the commercial secretary at the embassy, told the Associated Press that the first free trip was scheduled for Monday, when a convoy of buses and an Iraqi Airways flight would ferry the refugees back to Iraq.
Having initially adopted an open-door policy for fleeing Iraqis, Syria has been imposing visa requirements since October. Syria's embassy in Baghdad grants them only for commercial, transport, scientific or educational reasons. A UNHCR survey of Iraqis leaving Syria, released yesterday, showed that 46% were going home because they could no longer afford to stay; 14% said they had heard that the security situation had improved, and 25% said their visas had expired.
"People feel very tense about staying in Syria and having no income," said a spokeswoman, Astrid van Genderen Stort. "Maybe there is a glimmer of hope because some areas seem to be more secure than before. We shall have to see. We want people to be able to go home and lead secure lives, not to fear revenge and persecution."
Before the restrictions Iraqis who moved to Syria were allowed to stay for three months. They then had to leave, but could re-enter the country for another three-month period.
Damascus has stepped up demands for financial support to ease the burden. Aid for the refugees is one of the few subjects discussed amicably between the US and Syria, which are generally at odds. Syria recently agreed to allow American interviewers into the country to screen Iraqis seeking admission into the US. "There is a special role for the US to alleviate the suffering of the Iraqi people," said Faysal Mekdad, Syria's deputy foreign minister. "The US invaded Iraq and caused this tremendous problem. If we don't get help, this is going to be fertile soil for extremists."
Payments
During the past four years some parts of Damascus have become dominated by Iraqis, with the nearby town of Sayyida Zaynab, home to a famous Shia Muslim shrine, acquiring a completely Iraqi feel.
The Baghdad government announced this week that it was offering Syria $15m (£7.3m) to help pay for the influx. Some 4,000 returning families have each received about $800, while 4,650 more are awaiting payments.
There has been no parallel return of Iraqis from Jordan, the second largest concentration of refugees, probably because those who fled there are better off than their compatriots in Syria.