Skip to main content
Log in

Achieving population-level violence declines: implications of the international crime drop for prevention programming

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Public Health Policy Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations for the period 2016–2030 aim to achieve a substantial reduction of interpersonal violence. An increasing body of evidence of what works, emerging from randomized controlled trials, can inform public health policy decisions. However, there is very limited evidence on the kinds of mechanisms that lead to sustained declines in interpersonal violence at the population level. We discuss the implications of what is known about recent major declines in violence to guide violence-reduction policies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Figure 1
Figure 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. United Nations. (2015) Sustainable Development Goals. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org, accessed 6 May 2016.

  2. Krisch, M., Eisner, M., Mikton, C. and Butchart, A. (2015) Global Strategies to Reduce Violence by 50% in 30 Years: Findings from the WHO and University of Cambridge Global Violence Reduction Conference 2014. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  3. World Health Organization. (forthcoming) Scaling up Interpersonal Violence Prevention: How the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development can Strengthen Policies, Strategies, and Programmes. Geneva: WHO.

  4. Hillis, S.D., Mercy, J.A., Saul, J., Gleckel, J., Abad, N. and Kress, H. (2015) THRIVES: A Global Technical Package to Prevent Violence Against Children. Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Eisner M. and Nivette, A. (2012) How to reduce the global homicide rate to 2 per 100,000 by 2060. In: R. Loeber and B.C. Walsh (eds.) The Future of Criminology. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 219–228.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  6. Mikton, C.R., Butchart, A., Dahlberg, L.L., and Krug, E.G. (2016) Global Status Report on Violence Prevention 2014. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 50(5): 650–651.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Lappi-Seppälä, T. and Lehti, M. (2014) Cross-comparative perspectives on global homicide trends. Crime and Justice 43(1): 135–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Eisner, M. (2008) Modernity strikes back? A historical perspective on the latest increase in interpersonal violence (1960–1990). International Journal of Conflict and Violence 2(2): 289–316.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Molcho, M., Craig, W., Due, P., Pickett, W., Harel-Fisch, Y. and Overpeck, M. (2009) Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994–2006: findings from Europe and North America. International Journal of Public Health 54(2): 225–234.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Chester, K.L., Callaghan, M., Cosma, A., Donnelly, P., Craig, W., Walsh, S., et al (2015) Cross-national time trends in bullying victimization in 33 countries among children aged 11, 13 and 15 from 2002 to 2010. The European Journal of Public Health 25(suppl 2): 61–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Zimring, F.E. (2006) The Great American Crime Decline. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  12. U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2015) Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics Online. http://www.ucrdatatool.gov, accessed 6 May 2016.

  13. Lauritsen, J.L., Rezey, M.L., and Heimer, K. (2016) When choice of data matters: Analyses of US crime trends, 1973–2012. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 32(1): 1–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Robers, S., Kemp, J., Rathburn, A., Morgan, R.E. and Snyder, T.D. (2014) Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2013 (NCES 2014-042/NCJ 243299). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, and Bureau of Justice Statistics, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice.

  15. Ventura, S.J., Curtin, S.C., Abma, J.C., and Henshaw, S.K. (2012) Estimated pregnancy rates and rates of pregnancy outcomes for the United States, 1990–2008. National vital statistics reports: From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System 60(7): 1–21.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Johnston, L.D., O’Malley, P.M., Miech, R.A., Bachman, J.G. and Schulenberg, J.E. (2015) Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use: 1975–2014: Overview, key findings on adolescent drug use. Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Levitt, S.D. (2004) Understanding why crime fell in the 1990s: Four factors that explain the decline and six that do not. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(1): 163–190.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Blumstein, A. and Rosenfeld, R. (2008) Factors contributing to US crime trends. In: Goldberger, A. and R. Rosenfeld (eds.) Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, pp. 13–43.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Finkelhor, D. and Jones, L. (2006) Why have child maltreatment and child victimization declined? Journal of Social Issues 62(4): 685–716.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Tonry, M. (2014) Why crime rates are falling throughout the Western World. Crime and Justice 43(1): 1–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Baumer, E.P. and Wolff, K.T. (2014) Evaluating contemporary crime drop (s) in America, New York City, and many other places. Justice Quarterly 31(1): 5–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Patel, D.M., Simon, M.A., and Taylor, R.M. (eds.) (2013) Contagion of Violence: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Murray, A. and Eisner, M. (2016) The development of the general factor of psychopathology, ‘p-factor’, across childhood and adolescence. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology. doi:10.1007/s10802-016-0132-1.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Eisner, M. (2014) From swords to words: Does macro-level change in self-control predict long-term variation in levels of homicide? Crime and Justice 43(1): 65–134.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Finkelhor, D. and Johnson, M. (2015) Has psychiatric medication reduced crime and delinquency? Trauma, Violence, & Abuse. doi: 10.1177/1524838015620817.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Marcotte, D.E. and Markowitz, S. (2011) A cure for crime? Psycho‐pharmaceuticals and crime trends. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 30(1): 29–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Bouvy, P.F. and Liem, M. (2012) Antidepressants and lethal violence in the Netherlands 1994–2008. Psychopharmacology 222(3): 499–506.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Dahlberg, L.L. and Mercy, J.A. (2009) History of violence as a public health issue. AMA Virtual Mentor 11(2): 167–172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., Mailley, J., and Tilley, N. (2011) The crime drop and the security hypothesis. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 48(2): 147–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Roeder, O.K., Eisen, L.B., and Bowling, J. (2015) What Caused the Crime Decline? New York: Brennan Center for Justice.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Braga, A.A., Papachristos, A.V., and Hureau, D.M. (2014) The effects of hot spots policing on crime: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Justice Quarterly 31(4): 633–663.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Straus, M.A. (1996) Spanking and the making of a violent society. Pediatrics 98(4): 837–842.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Collishaw, S., Gardner, F., Maughan, B., Scott, J., and Pickles, A. (2012) Do historical changes in parent–child relationships explain increases in youth conduct problems? Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology 40(1): 119–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Ribeaud, D. (2015) Entwicklung von Gewalterfahrungen Jugendlicher im Kanton Zürich, 1999–2014. Forschungsbericht. Zurich: ETHZ. doi:10.3929/ethz-a-010446276, accessed 15 June 2016.

  35. Welsh, B.C. and Greenwood, P.W. (2014) Making it happen - state progress in implementing evidence-based programs for delinquent youth. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice 11(3): 243–257.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Ogden, T., Hagen, K.A., Askeland, E., and Christensen, B. (2009) Implementing and evaluating evidence-based treatments of conduct problems in children and youth in Norway. Research on Social Work Practice 19(5): 582–591.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Dodge, K.A. and Mandel, A.D. (2012) Building evidence for evidence‐based policy making. Criminology & Public Policy 11(3): 525–534.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Farrington, D. and Ttofi, M. (2009) School-based programs to reduce bullying and victimization: A systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews 6: 1–147.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Finkelhor, D., Vanderminden, J., Turner, H., Shattuck, A., and Hamby, S. (2014) Youth exposure to violence prevention programs in a national sample. Child Abuse & Neglect 38(4): 677–686.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Olweus, D. and Limber, S.P. (2010) Bullying in school: Evaluation and dissemination of the Olweus Bullying Prevention Program. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry 80(1): 124–134.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. World Health Organization. (2014) Global Status Report on Violence Prevention 2014. Geneva: WHO.

    Google Scholar 

  42. Steven, D. (2015) A Global Partnership to End Violence Against Children. New York: Centre on International Cooperation, available from http://www.end-violence.org, accessed 6 May 2016.

Download references

Acknowledgements

Manuel Eisner presented an initial version of this paper at the National Academy of Sciences “Roundtable on Crime Trends”. We thank Richard Rosenfeld and Brandon Welsh for useful comments on earlier drafts of the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Manuel Eisner.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Eisner, M., Nivette, A., Murray, A.L. et al. Achieving population-level violence declines: implications of the international crime drop for prevention programming. J Public Health Pol 37 (Suppl 1), 66–80 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-016-0004-5

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-016-0004-5

Keywords

Navigation