ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION AND CHANGES IN HOMICIDE ARREST RATES FOR WHITE AND BLACK YOUTHS, 1967–1998: A NATIONAL TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*
A previous version of this paper was presented at the 70th Annual Meeting of the Eastern Sociological Society, Baltimore, Md., March 2–5, 2000. We are grateful to Ron Jacobs, the anonymous referees, and the editor for comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. Support for this research was provided by a grant from the National Consortium on Violence Research (NCOVR). NCOVR is funded under Grant SBR 9513040 from the National Science Foundation. Support was also provided by grants to the Center for Social and Demographic Analysis from NICHD (P30 HD32041) and NSF (SBR-9512290). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agencies.
Steven F. Messner is Professor of Sociology and Chair at the University at Albany, SUNY. His research has focused on the relationship between social organization and crime, with a particular emphasis on criminal homicide. He has also studied crime in China and the situational dynamics of violence. In addition to his publications in sociological and criminological journals, he is co-author of Crime and the American Dream (Wadsworth), Perspectives on Crime and Deviance (Prentice-Hall), Criminology: An Introduction Using ExplorIt (MicroCase), and co-editor of Theoretical Integration in the Study of Deviance and Crime (SUNY Press) and Crime and Social Control in a Changing China (Greenwood Press). He is also a member of the National Consortium on Violence Research (NCOVR).
Lawrence E. Raffalovich is Associate Professor of Sociology at the University at Albany, SUNY, where he studies social stratification, economic sociology, and quantitative research methods. His current research focus is on the determinants and consequences of income inequality within and between countries, statistical methods for analyzing time-series data, and model selection strategies in social research. Recent publications include Growth and Distribution: Evidence From a Variable-Parameter Cross-National Time-Series Analysis (Social Forces, 1999), and, with Michael Wallace and Kevin Leicht, “Unions, Strikes, and Labor's Share of Income: A Quarterly Analysis of the United States, 1949–1992” (Social Science Research, 1999).
Richard McMillan is currently a graduate student pursuing a Doctorate in Sociology at the University at Albany, SUNY. He received a B.A. in Sociology from the University of Arkansas and a J.D. from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock School of Law. His academic interests include the study of deviance and technology and family formation and dissolution.
Abstract
Using time-series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age-race-specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (lagged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between-race inequality is unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro-economic environment confronting young people and their families.
