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Germany knew the floods were coming, but the warnings didn’t work

Weather scientists say a ‘monumental failure of the system’ is directly to blame for the death and devastation triggered by a month’s worth of rain that fell in two days this week

There was damage to homes along the Rhine, including in Kreuzberg
There was damage to homes along the Rhine, including in Kreuzberg
WOLFGANG RATTAY/GETTY IMAGES
Oliver Moody
The Sunday Times

The first signs of catastrophe were detected nine days ago by a satellite orbiting 500 miles above the tranquil hills around the Rhine river.

Over the next few days a team of scientists sent the German authorities a series of forecasts so accurate that they now read like a macabre prophecy: the Rhineland was about to be hit by “extreme” flooding, particularly along the Erft and Ahr rivers, and in towns such as Hagen and Altena.

Yet despite at least 24 hours’ warning that predicted, almost precisely, which districts would be worst afflicted when the rains came, the flood still caught many of its victims largely unawares.

A destroyed house in Altenahr. There is suggestion that the government was under-prepared for the disaster
A destroyed house in Altenahr. There is suggestion that the government was under-prepared for the disaster
LINO MIRGELER/DPA/AP

Germany got its preparations “badly wrong”, one of the experts who built Europe’s sophisticated flood prediction model told