The first signs of catastrophe were detected nine days ago by a satellite orbiting 500 miles above the tranquil hills around the Rhine river.
Over the next few days a team of scientists sent the German authorities a series of forecasts so accurate that they now read like a macabre prophecy: the Rhineland was about to be hit by “extreme” flooding, particularly along the Erft and Ahr rivers, and in towns such as Hagen and Altena.
Yet despite at least 24 hours’ warning that predicted, almost precisely, which districts would be worst afflicted when the rains came, the flood still caught many of its victims largely unawares.
A destroyed house in Altenahr. There is suggestion that the government was under-prepared for the disaster
LINO MIRGELER/DPA/AP
Germany got its preparations “badly wrong”, one of the experts who built Europe’s sophisticated flood prediction model told