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Gone with the wind

This article is more than 22 years old
Unless agencies start planning now for the next eruption of Mount Nyiragongo, the millions spent on reconstruction will be wasted, warns Carmen Solana

The astonishing images of the eruption of Mount Nyiragongo reinforce many people's feeling of helplessness before the powerful, capricious forces of nature.

Latest estimates are that 245 people have been killed by the volcano since it started erupting on January 17. There could be more fatalities if disease hits the area. A quarter of a million people have been driven from their homes by the swift-moving lava flows.

About 40% of Goma, the second city of the Democratic Republic of Congo and home to more than 400,000, has been destroyed. Many of the surviving buildings have been so shaken by earth tremors that they may have become unstable.

The UN estimates the cost of providing food, blankets, household utensils, temporary shelter, clean water, sanitation and health care to the refugees at $15 million. The cost of rebuilding the town's infrastructure, homes and livelihoods is anybody's guess.

The eruption appears to have caught aid agencies in Goma by surprise. But it was not a surprise to volcanologists and it should not have been a surprise to anybody living and working in the area. Mount Nyiragongo is one of Africa's most active volcanoes, and has been active since it was first described in 1894. Its summit holds a wide, deep crater that periodically fills up with lava, producing what is called a "lava lake".

But Nyiragongo is best known for having produced the fastest lava flows recorded - 60kmh according to some estimates - in 1977, when the lava lake spilled out through a new crack in the side of the volcano. That lava flow covered 20 square km, engulfing 400 houses and a 10km stretch of road, and killed 70 people.

In 1994, Nyiragongo was in the news again, when there were fears that that eruption, confined to the crater, could produce lava flows that would reach the camps for refugees escaping from the war and genocide in neighbouring Rwanda.

How can the current eruption have been a surprise to people and aid workers in the area? And more worryingly, how prepared are they and their organisations to advise on development when they are not aware of the basic hazards?

People are now returning to Goma and their thoughts are turning to how to rebuild the town. Aid agencies and international observers are worried that the area is not safe while the eruption continues, but will it ever be safe?

Goma was spared by just a few kilometres in 1977 and this time the lava flows have split the town into three. Goma is likely to be affected again.

Volcanoes do not go away. But we see "eruption blindness" almost everywhere there are volcanoes. Nyiragongo is not unique in this respect. Most volcanoes are forgotten as soon as they stop erupting: they look quiet and eruptions are perceived as a one-off event, as something you can't do anything about and you just have to learn to live with.

The new hospital built with British development money on the Caribbean island of Montserrat, in a location known to be at risk from the Soufriere volcano, was closed within a few months of opening in 1996 by an eruption that went on to destroy it. San Sebastiano, a village in the foothills of Vesuvius, has been rebuilt three times in less than 100 years on top of the lava flows that destroy it.

The city of Armero in Colombia was built on top of massive deposits from the Nevado del Ruiz volcano that had devastated the area more than once in historical times. Almost 30,000 people died when the volcano erupted in 1985.

International aid agencies and the media are seriously concerned with what has happened in Goma. But experience shows that when the volcano quietens down, interest will wane, and the opportunity to learn and apply lessons will probably be lost.

Aid agencies will point out that there are other pressing problems. For several years they have had to help people whose lives have been shattered by political instability and conflict. Behind this lie chronic poverty and underdevelopment.

These everyday threats require immediate attention too, aid workers argue, and will continue to need it after the current crisis in Goma has gone away.

Nyiragongo will erupt again- and soon: perhaps in a few years, maybe a decade. We do not know the size of the next eruption, exactly which part of the volcano the lava will come from and which areas will be affected, but we know it will happen. Aid agencies should start planning now. If they do not, the millions of dollars they are, and will be, spending on relief and reconstruction, will be money down the drain.

· Dr Carmen Solana is a volcanologist at the Benfield Greig hazards research centre at University College London

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