Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Valid 00Z Wed May 01 2024 - 00Z Fri May 03 2024

...Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through mid-week...

...Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall now in place for the Ark-La-Tex
Thursday...

...Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High
Plains on Wednesday...

...Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average conditions continue
across much of the Central and Eastern U.S....

Mean ridging over the eastern U.S. with an energetic upper-level trough
over the north-central/northwestern U.S. will keep most of the active
weather over the next few days over portions of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue into Tuesday evening as an upper-level wave/surface frontal
system over the Central Plains moves to the northeast through the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center through Tuesday evening
from central Iowa southwestward through northeastern Kansas for the threat
of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additional storms
further to the southwest along a trailing cold front will lead to a risk
for some locally heavy rainfall totals as storm motions stall in tandem
with the slowing cold front. Some scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible from southeastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma with a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place.

As this system departs to the into the Great Lakes, another upper-level
wave approaching from the west over the Rockies will help to
reinforce/organize the trailing frontal system over the Central High
Plains. This will bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms
across the Plains Wednesday. Severe storms are expected ahead of a dryline
over portions of the Central/Southern Plains. A broad Slight Risk is in
place for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, with a localized
Enhanced Risk over southwest Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma. Dry, windy
conditions behind the dryline will also bring a heightened threat of
wildfires, with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) issued by the
Storm Prediction Center for the Southern High Plains.

Storms are expected to cluster/expand in coverage into the evening hours
Wednesday as the frontal system lifts into the Middle Missouri Valley. A
southern stream upper-level wave will help lead to a second area of
enhanced convective development over portions of southern Oklahoma into
much of the eastern half of Texas. In both cases, plentiful moisture and a
strong low level jet will help foster locally intense rainfall, with
Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall for the threat of scattered flash
flooding. Both areas of storms are forecast to continue into the day
Thursday with daytime heating bringing the potential for additional
development from the Upper-Mississippi Valley south-southwestward through
the Lower Missouri Valley and into the Ark-La-Tex. A broad Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the region, with a targeted
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) now in place for the Ark-La-Tex. Wet antecedent
conditions due to rainfall from any initial storms followed by the
prospects of additional development will continue the threat for flash
flooding.

Some showers and thunderstorms will remain possible along the East Coast
through Tuesday evening as a frontal system lingers over the Northeast
with a surface trough extending south through Florida. Some storms may
last into Wednesday and Thursday, particularly over New England in
vicinity of passing frontal systems. Unsettle conditions will continue for
the Pacific Northwest into portions of the northern Interior West through
mid-week as the upper-level trough remains in place over the region. Lower
elevations will see light to moderate showers with snow for the higher
elevations. Snow accumulations should remain relatively limited except for
portions of the northern Rockies of Montana where winter-weather related
advisories/warnings are in place. Temperature wise, conditions will tend
to be above average ahead of the trough over the central/eastern U.S. with
numerous highs in the 80s outside of the Northern Tier. Areas of the
Central Plains east through the Great Lakes will be in the 60s and 70s,
with 50s and 60s for the Northern Plains and New England. Conditions will
remain below average in the West, with mainly 50s and 60s for the Pacific
Northwest and the Interior West, 60s and 70s in central/southern
California, and warmer temperatures into the low 90s for the Desert
Southwest. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php