![Sample our Global Development journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5929/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Global-Development.jpg"})
Abstract
Catastrophic climate change (C3) is inevitable if carbon emissions to the atmosphere are not rapidly reduced and the now unsafe atmospheric level (400 ppm) CO2 (and rising) is not brought down by sequestration technologies to below 350 ppm. C3 prevention is possible with the replacement of global fossil fuel supplies by wind, concentrated solar power and photovoltaics, with the main obstacle being the political economy of global capitalism, specifically the Military Industrial (Fossil Fuel, Nuclear, State Terror) Complex. C3 prevention likely requires global demilitarization, agroecologies replacing industrial/genetically modified organism (GMO) agriculture, solarization, and democratic, bottom-up governance. Energy poverty in the global South must end, reaching a rough minimum of 3.5 kilowatt/person. This solar transition is achievable in 20 to 30 years using less than 40% of the proven reserves of conventional petroleum, while supplying sufficient energy to sequester CO2 from the atmosphere using agroecologies and burial of carbonate in the crust, thereby maximizing the possibility of reaching a safe atmospheric CO2 level in time to prevent C3.
Acknowledgement
We thank the organizers of the 5th International Conference on Appropriate Technology for the invitation to present this paper.
Notes
Here is the function used for progressive phase out of non-RE energy sources over the assumed 25 year transition period, with t being the time in years: FF = 1 - 0.015 t - 0.001 t 2 ; ∫FFdt from t = 0 to 25, gives a total fossil fuel (FF) consumption equal to 15.1 times the present annual global energy consumption level (0.47 ZJ) or 7.1 ZJ, which is 43% of the estimated global 16.7 ZJ remaining in conventional petroleum reserves (oil and natural gas). Note: The ‘proven’ reserves cited do not include tar sands, oil shale or fracked natural gas. In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was 474 exajoules (474×1018 J=132,000 TWh (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). Smil (Citation2008) cites Ahlbrandt et al. (Citation2005), who estimate remaining natural gas reserves equal to 415 Tm3.